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Decent day for us here yesterday, as we had two winners ( $15 & $11 ) along with a $133 triple box, two exacta boxes of $87 & $17, two rolling daily doubles of $299 & $21 ( along with an ice cold one for $21, and a fat rolling pick 3 of $1,713 !!  ( Oh yeah -- went to see the Devils win in miraculous comeback fashion in New Jersey as well ! )

As it's less than a month away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve !!   The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day !  

With the NHC Championship less than 2 months away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/15

 

Race  1

1.Frosty Linz

2.Youmakemeblush

3.Needs No Ice

#3 FROSTY LINZ ( one half of the uncoupled Schettino entry ) has been freshened up a bit since finishing in the rear with the gear a couple'a months back, and aforementioned 12% conditioner is 3 for 13 with locally based maiden claiming dirt sprinters in the 47 to 95 day bracket ( 60-1 or less ). The winners came back $23, $8 & $33, and note that this one hung up an honest ( for this group ) 50.1 figaro in the lone try off a break. #10 YOUMAKEMEBLUSH had her bout of seconditis snapped in a bad way when finishing 4th last time out, but runner up finisher from that afternoon came back to win, and we'll give this one another chance. #6 NEEDS NO ICE as good as any for the show dough.

 

Race  2

1.Daddy D T

2.Oneballnostrikes

3.No Distortion

#3 DADDY D T was awful in the most recent, and now Rice drops this $50,000 claim ( from three back ) to the 20K level today. Owners have only taken in $15,204 since the purchase, and by our estimation have written out about 13G in checks, so even with a win ( $17,600 ) and a claim, ( 20 large ), they still stand to lose about $10,304 on the whole schmear. That being said, barn is 4:3-1-0 when giving their 3rd off the shelf Ozone Park stock this kind of drop ( all the wins were at odd on ), so it would behoove you to look at the board a bit. #1 ONEBALLNOSTRIKES is another who drops a bit after a disappointing post-purchase foray and Stone sticks around. 12% clan nearly triples that batting average ( 3-9 ) w/second off the snag mid level dirt horsies who missed the baccala 1-2 fortnights ago ( $9, $10 & $6 ). #7  NO DISTORTION, on the other hand, is confidently hiked up in class off the barn change, and has done decent work at the trip & over the strip.  NOTE: AS OF 12:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Sassy Agnes

2.Forgotten Hero

3.She's So She D

We won't be going any deeper than the top two in this six pack of NYB gals ( of which 'Miah conditions three ), as we ended up siding with the #4 SASSY AGNES. Filly is but a length shy of a 4 for 4 mark on the sand ( never favored ), w/the most recent occurring right here at the same dx. Trainer thought highly enough to put this one in a Canandaigua stakes despite being a maiden, and aside from that, owns a whopping 6 fer 13 ledger with Aqueduct based ungraded dirt stock coming in off a win ( 15-1 or less ). Just one of that sextet went off as the chalk ( $4, $7, $12, $11, $14 & $8 ), and it's her race to lose. #5 FORGOTTEN HERO was visually impressive when winning right outta the box on 11/4, and we admire that it came without the "wonder drug". Threat once again, as the 393 Tommy tells us the result that day was no fluke. Draw a line through the last of #3 SHE'S SO SHEA D, as she acted up in the gate that day and deserves a chance to atone.

 

Race  4 

1.Taptaptap

2.Bret's Legacy

3.Marble Moon

#11 TAPTAPTAP was extremely disappointing in the most recent, and the owner decided to transfer this one over to the Ferraro barn. Jimmy does the smart thing and gives the grey gelding the biggest drop in the biz. Well bred runner has some early hoof, and barn that wins at an 8% rate is a crisp 7:2-2-1 mark when being handed a runner and bringing them back in less than two months ( 40-1 or under ). The winners paid a FAT $43 & $81 as well. #4 BRET'S LEGACY is another sliding down the ladder this afternoon for an outfit who's 4 for 6 with maiden claiming dirt dashers at 9-1 or beneath ( over this strip ). #10 MARBLE MOON closed out the super first time out and has eye cups added today. 

 

Race  5

1.Votre Couer

2.New Year's Wish

3.Anne Dupree

#6 VOTRE COUER is a nibbler by rote ( 20:1-3-5 ) and a hard horse to hug, but has done well over this course and ain't facing much. Meeeeeeeeek selection. #3 NEW YEAR'S WISH is available for purchase for the first time for today's 2nd off the shelf try and scored by a bunch in the lone go round right here. #5 ANNE DUPREE has enough speed to be in the mix late in a forgettable affair.

 

Race  6 

1.Haikal

2.American Mandate

3.Loverboy Lou

#5 HAIKAL displays a baby "Z" pattern from the bow, when losing 2 lengths from the quarter to the half, before re-gaining that amount and 7+ more from that point to the wire. 422 Tomlimson figure says to us that it was no aberration, and there was a nice breeze a week ago for this. #2 AMERICAN MANDATE has crashed the party in all his starts to date and should be right there once again. #1 LOVERBOY LOU regressed a bit second time out, but gets in light and could be dangerous if able to catch a flyer.

 

Race  7

1.Speightful Kitten

2.Benevolence

3.Candid Desire

#11 SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN was a well beaten but well clear runner up in this race three weeks ago, and that initial dirt attempt came on the heels of two nice breezes over the stuff, so it appears Rice has a versatile animal on her hands. Barn with some live runners today. #10 BENEVOLENCE has improved in all three starts since the claim, and owns a nice 9:2-4-2 overall mark in this zip code. #6 CANDID DESIRE had been claimed in three of the last four before being protected against such by Servis in last. Gelding was overmatched that day and is a threat back at this level.  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Allured

2.Aveenu Malcainu

3.Under a Spell

#9 ALLURED put it all together to procure the sheepskin at 1 to 2 in the most recent, and Brown is a groovy 9 for 17 with those under these conditions who broke their maidens 19-39 days ago. $600,000 auction purchase obviously has lots of upside and rates a slight edge in a wide open deal. #11 AVEENU MALCAINU flopped down at Churchill on Breeders' Cup weekend, but was heading in the right direction just before that, and is decently spotted here. From a limited sampling, barn is 3 for 7 with AQU. based allowance sprinters on the sand who missed the money 4-8 weeks back. #8 UNDER A SPELL is 3:1-1-0 over a glib surface and may rebound off the poor slop outing.

 

Race  9 

1.Rockford

2.Halloween Horror

3.Dancetrack

Watching "Nobody's Fool" while typing away here ( Paul Newman, Bruce Willis ), and I highly recommend it for a cold winter's night.  #4 ROCKFORD finds himself at his lowest level to date and re-adds the eye cups for the 2nd off the shelf try. Fairly consistent gelding has performed well right here as well as @ the dx. and gets a tepid nod. #5 HALLOWEEN HORROR drops a peg off a nice placing, but bug has looked a mite shaky since returning from injury, so we'll leave beneath. #11 DANCETRACK has been a part of the tri in 8 of 10 since arriving in the States back in 2016, but that kind of timeframe does in fact show that there have been some soundness issues along the way. Catches a fast track for the 1st time and may come along late for a piece.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 11-8-7.

 


Aqueduct       ( Current )   39-222   ( $381.20 )   Beatable Favorites     8-28  ( 28.6% )  Favorites Win %: 87-230   ( 37.8% )( As of Saturday morning )

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  13-78   ( $104.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 34-78     ( 43.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 58-365   ( $500.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 123-365  ( 33.7% )  +/-: -31.4% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2003-9764 ($16,765.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3585-9859 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2088-10330 ($17,584.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3748-10444( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017