KevinCoxItem

 

Another washed out afternoon ( what else is new ? ), but at keast we got home three winners. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #8 Kandinsky  Race 7 - #9 - Trustworthy


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Aqueduct - 11/8

 

Race  1

1.Gattino Marrone

2.Valencia Vale ( AE )

3.Little Song

#10 GATTINO MARRONE ( "Brown Cat", by "Bug Brown" out of "Simpaticat" ) hadn't been showing much in the mornings until the recent gate breeze over the local training track ( 3rd best of 19 ), and is a February bred facing some younger foes while drawing nicely for the career starter. Mild shoice in a wide open opener. #13 VALENCIA VALE (AE) is on the outside looking in, but is a half to Epping Forrest, who was 6 for 11 in turf dashes, banking nearly 300 large, and Stone is fairly proficient on the sod. #7 LITTLE SONG is another January foal who's decently bred for this deal, but Motion is on an abysmal oh-fer-25 & 2 for 70 run on the Newy York Circuit, so we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-13(AE)-14(MTO)-10-8

 

Race  2

1.Dancingwthdaffodls

2.Carrera Cat

3.That's Smart

#3 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS is wheeled right back after bringing up the rear four days ago, but gal has done well over this strip and Junior is inclined to stick around. Gal is rpidly approaching professional maiden territory, but we'll take a swing at 10-1. #2 CARRERA CAT was a lively and well clear runner up at 16-1 about a month and a half ago, and fired off a sizzling bullet breeze on Halloween since then. Lone try over a fast track was also a goodie, and this is a must inclusion in all your rolling action. #6 THAT'S SMART is s steady if unspectacular sort who closed nicely in the latest and catches a fast track for the first time today.   NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.She'sgotthebeat

2.Letthemooseloose

3.Moment of Triumph

Despite being kept in jail since the recent purchase, #4 SHE'SGOTTHEBEAT is returned at the level claimed from the last despite having flopped in said affair, and right off the bat, that's a good sign. From a tiny sampling, 24% shotcaller is 2 for 5 with first off the purchase mid level dirt stock right here, who missed the baccala < 82 days back & are 8-1 or under. Both winners came back nine clams, and barn's go-to rider takes over today. #6 LETTHEMOOSELOOSE has hit the board in 5 of 6 this year and should be right there once again. After running dead last in three straight, #3 MOMENT OF TRIUMPH has since closed out the exacta in her last two outings, and her best work has in fact come at this trip. Including.  NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Le Condor ( Ger )

2.Duncastle

3.Bail Out

#6 LE CONDOR (GER) hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but adjusted 81.3 from the career starter way back when fits with these, and eleven runners ( from nine different races ) amassed an 11:4-2-1 mark in their next outings, with all basically replicating their prior Beyer. Included among those is the graded stakes winning Analyze It, who was a gutsy third in the BC Mile. #1 DUNCASTLE had an awkward sojourn in the lone turf route, but still posted an adj. # of 86.9 that afternoon behind two next out winners, and although the grey gelding merely finished fifth in the off the turf attempt, it was his best yet on the sand, so if you were to prorate that to either try on the sod, well.... #7 BAIL OUT has posted two solid figaros over firm ground this far, and was two lengths clear of the show horse in last despite encountering some trouble. OFF TURF: 4-2-8-9-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 KANDINSKY more than fills the bill here, as Serpe is "Oh dear - for - 33" with second time starting maidens.  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3X WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Honey I'm Good

2.South of France

3.Girl of Toscanova

#2 HONEY I'M GOOD won by a country mile first time outta the box over at Big Sandy for The As Man, and we'll give her a tepid nod to do the same once again. #3 SOUTH OF FRANCE sure did appreciate the freshening, huh ? Gal returned with a vengeance, improving by nearly 50% in the speed figure department to get the sheepskin for Pletcher, who smartly keeps this one protected against the claim after that convincing score. 397 Tomlinson for the distance tells us that perhaps the light bulb has finally come on for this one. #1 GIRL OF TOSCANOVA completes our troika of selections entering off a maiden tally, and this one may prove to be a smart claim by Baker, as he saw fit to plunk down half a C-Note for this one first time out.

 

Race  6 

1.Constant Knight

2.Sparky

3.Dr. Baskin

#5 CONSTANT KNIGHT finally burst through the maiden ranks in last, and sometimes when the switch gets clicked, it can stay in that position for a spell. Jockey has rebounded from a miserable Belmont stand in getting off to a decent start here, and we'll lean this way in a race that may not even be on the turf ( as it just started pouring as of this writing on Tuesday afternoon ). #1 SPARKY went extremely wide in the most recent, and slides inside today while getting blinks for the first time. Expect a little more speed to be shown this afternoon with the switch back to Cancel. #2 DR. BASKIN is another one having eye cups affixed for the first time today after a troubled trip may have been to blame for him falling short in the last. Chance for Franco to make amends.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-12(MTO)-13(MTO)-9-11(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Single Gem

2.D'ambrosio

3.Playwright

#1 SINGLE GEM was re-claimed by Robertino two starts back, and 24% bossman is a near perfect 6 for 7 w/ second off the purchase allowance dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 18-36 days back & are 7-1 or under today. We would like to see this one rate a bit today. #6 D'AMBROSIO is one of two Pletcher runners this afternoon who is protected against the purchase after getting the diploma in last, and The Toddster owns a nice 4-10 mark with just that type under these exact conditions at 10-1 or lower ( second off the absence ). #7 PLAYWRIGHT often tries hard and is 2 for 5 at the dist., compared to being 0-9 otherwise. You're getting connections who click at a 32% rate @ 10-1 M.L. odds.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 TRUSTWORTHY - Asmussen is 0-16 with Ozone Park based allowance dirt stock who were IN the money less than 48 days ago.  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Nims

2.Krewe Chief

3.Sentry

At first glance, #8 NIMS appears to be a bit light from a sped figure aspect, but appears to be figuring things out a bit, and lost by just a length the last time he stepped on the sod ( with some trouble that day ), posting an adj. 77.9 in the process. Price play. #9 KREWE CHIEF was a game runner up in both "3rd off the L/O" tries, and MM is 5 for 10 with that type going long on the lawn who were 1-2-3 22 to 44 days back at 4-1 or lower ( positive ROI ); 7:2-2-0 mark when breaking from the outside two slots duly noted. #6 SENTRY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 5-1-4-2(MTO)-6

 

Race  9 

1.No Worries Mate 

2.Tammany Giant

3.Causforcelebration ( AE )

#4 NO WORRIES MATE came along late in the game to close out the triple on October 17th, and as that was his first "turf" start with blinkers, one may assume that he may have found his niche. Mild choice. #5 TAMMANY GIANT has partaken in the exacta in 5 of 6, and we'll slide undernath at double digit odds. #11 CAUSFORCELEBRATION (AE) is another who likes to be a part of the parimutuel action, so we'll toss in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 12(AE)-5-9-11(AE)-10

 

 
Aqueduct       ( Current )    4-27     ( $19.20 )      Beatable Favorites      1-3  ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %: 10-27     ( 37.0% )( As of Thursday morning ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  12-73     ( $99.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 32-73     ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 57-361   ( $494.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 121-361  ( 33.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2002-9760 ($16,760.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3584-9855 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2087-10328 ($17,579.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3747-10442( 35.9% )+/-: -14.8% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017