From a weather perspective, Aqueduct has picked up right where Belmont left off, with soft, turf, off the turf, etc. Let's hope for one fast/firm week for a change. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #3 Helooksthepart

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Aqueduct - 11/7


Race  1

1.Face It

2.Acting Chipper

3.Captain Livi

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #3 FACE IT improved by about 20% from the first start to the second, and the three returnees from that afternoon came back to go 1-2-3 in two separate heats next time out, with an average Beyer improvement of 33 points ( none less than 20 ). This one is still taking in the Saratoga waters between starts, and McL. has won with half of his local dirt stock at this level at 7-1 or less ( 24-70 days ), with a positive ROI in that regards. #2 ACTING CHIPPER is another who got better in the last, but note that it occurred with the implementation of juice and eye cups. Nevin doubles her normative 19% win rate with Aqueduct maiden special weight stock off sabbaticals of 27-81 days a 10-1 or undah. #5 CAPTAIN LIVI showed good zip in the bow and 389 Tommy tells us there's room for improvement off that effort. 


Race  2

1.Indy's Lady



#5 INDY'S LADY closed out the superfecta both times going two turns, but those were at slightly higher levels, and should give a slightly better account of herself today. Timid selection. #3 TIGALALU has yet to miss the board, and we like trainers who are unafraid to make an equipment change off a solid effort. #4 UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE is 3 for 3 at the trip and what the hell's wrong with that? 


Race  3

1.Swiping Dan

2.Analyze the Odds

3.Regal Quality

#2 SWIPING DAN won his only second off the shelf try over a fast track, and also got the job done the last time he was available for purchase. Jose takes over. #6 ANALYZE THE ODDS is 3:1-1-0 when in with a tag, and Servis is a tight 3 for 6 when stepping up new acquisitions on the dirt by 50% or more off breaks of < 19 days ( won last ). #4 REGAL QUALITY is a $200,000 purchase who can be all yours for 1/5th of that today's 3rd off the L/O foray. 


Race  4 

1.Canarsie Kid

2.Call Wil

3.Get a Valentine

#4 CANARSIE KID always seems to give a good account of himself, and we like that this one can send or rate beneath Stone. Deserving favorite ( which is what we're guessing he'll be ). #6 CALL WIL finished second in his lone go round over this oval. If you draw lines through all the non "firm" starts of the #1 GET A VALENTINE, then what you are left with are some fairly honest running lines. Reyes gets the call for Rudy here, as his son is now booking Luis' mounts, and I wouldn't be surprised to see these connections pop with a few winners early on to get them off to a good start.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-13(MTO)-5-6-8


Race  5

1.Jordy's Ready


3.Burkey's Babe

#1 JORDY'S READY showed a bit of a "Z" pattern in the last when losing three lengths from the quarter to the top of the lane before gaining four from that point to the line. The runner up from that afternoon came back to get her photo taken the next time out, and improved her # by 5% in the process. #7 LOLLI drops for the second straight time while going green to brown and two turns to one. #8 BURKEY'S BABE has excellent speed and has never been entered this cheaply. May last for a share. 


Race  6 

1.Miss Jen

2.Discreet Image

3.Purely Lucky ( AE )

#2 MISS JEN got up in time at 12-1 when last put up for sale back in mid July, and fired off a crisp bullet on the first of the month, which is very uncharacteristic of her. Grey gal likes the trip and Jose gets the assignment for one who likes the trip. #5 DISCREET IMAGE went pillar to post vs. slightly weaker 46 days ago and deserves to be left in the mix once again. #11 PURELY LUCKY (AE) is on the outside looking in, but is available for purchase for the first time today, and Saez stays on, despite finishing up the track in last.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-16(MTO)-5-11(AE)-12(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 1:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7


2.Roman Approval


#1 GETOFFMYBACK is confidently hiked up in class today by Diodoro, who is a perfect 3 for 3 with Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock who were 1-2-3 15 to 28 days ago, with the winners coming back $7, $9 & $4. Irad gets strapped on, and of course, we love the 30:7-5-2 "declining" career mark. Soon to be eight year old #6 ROMAN APPROVAL has been a part of the triple in 8 of 9 on the sand, and owns a modicum of back class. #2 BITUMEN was snagged out of a similar spot in last, and Carlito has his "way" with runners of this ilk, as he's 8:3-2-0 in that regards, with juicy mutuels of $10, $9 & $26. 3 for 6 ledger at the dx. pops off the page a bit.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 HELOOKSTHEPART


Race  8 

1.Lulu's Pom Pom ( AE )

2.Wantagh Queen ( AE )

3.Beaux Arts

#12 LULU'S POM POM (AE) has been freshened up since finishing in the rear with the gear at the end of August, and we've always been quite fond of speedsters from outside slots. #11 WANTAGH QUEEN (AE) is another who will need some luck to make it over to the races today, but owns a 2-9 mark @ the dist., compared to being a woeful 1 fer 32 @ other trips. #1 BEAUX ARTS is a nibbler by nature ( 14:1-5-1 ), but may catch a flyer from the inside beneath a good "send" rider.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-15(MTO)-1-5-6


Race  9 

1.Platinum Nugget

2.Shamrock Kid

3.Santo Antonio

#1 PLATINUM NUGGET is a bit of an in and outer, but has a few decent running lines ( one of 'em right here ) and may be going over solid ground for the second time. #12 SHAMROCK KID (AE) needs two to start coughing in order to make it over to the races today, but should that be the case, brings in tow a strong performance in the last start ( no shocker, as MANY trainers have moved horses up out of the Chad Summers barn ), and ( potentially ) would be going over firm ground today, which could aid the cause as well. #9 SANTO ANTONIO has closed out the superfecta twice in restricted stakes company, and is now in with a tag for the 1st time today ( hmmmmm... ). Sixth different jockey in as many outings is a goodie, and we'll be tossing into the mix.  OFF TURF: 3-2-9-13(AE)-12(AE)-14(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 4:50 P.M. Monday, we had flip flopped our top two selections.


Aqueduct       ( Current )    1-18     ( $3.40 )      Beatable Favorites      1-2   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %: 6-18      ( 33.3% )  


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  12-73     ( $99.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 32-73     ( 43.8% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 57-361   ( $494.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 121-361  ( 33.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout  

Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2002-9760 ($16,760.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3584-9855 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2087-10328 ($17,579.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3747-10442( 35.9% )+/-: -14.8% against a 16.6% takeout