KevinCoxItem

 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 11/4 - Early Pick 4 

 

Race  2

1.Wine Not

2.Honor Up

3.Have Another

#2 WINE NOT is a little bit of a nibbler, but that doesn't mean that his speed figures aren't comparable to the others signed on -- just that he seems to favor the "unders" more often than not. Gelding is 1 for 3 right here, and will most likely be offering better value than the rest. #6 HONOR UP has won 2 of 3 ( the lone loss there being by less than a length ), and although this one moves into open company today, it shouldn't be that tough of a transition. #5 HAVE ANOTHER is 2 for 3 at this dist. ( 2-13 @ other trips ), but as this one has been immolating money of late, we'll leave beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 12:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Tiger Man

2.Center City

3.Catch Me If You Can

#3 TIGER MAN posted ( for this group ) an okay figaro in the first try on the dirt ( at 64-1 ) and adds blinkers off that effort. Love the bullet gate breeze since the last, and it probably occurred with today's equipment change, so expect this one to be more forwardly placed early on. #1 CENTER CITY is another one with a recent crisp morning move, but this lad has already shown early speed in the afternoons, so it's not too much of a shocker in that regards. Appreciable jockey upgrade for today's turf to dirt try and is another who will most likely be on the choo choo from "go". #2 CATCH ME IF YOU CAN has proven to be as popular as authentic Pan Am gear, given the two $50,000 claims in as many starts to date, but as this one is dropped to 30K today, even a win AND a claim puts the connections at about a $6,000 loss, so you may want to take a peek pre-race. 

 

Race  4 

1.Life Mission

2.Ole Mole

3.Honorable Hero 

#2 LIFE MISSION has been a part of the superfecta in all four starts to date, ( one of them a stakes ) and could be a bigger threat if able to catch something better than soft ground for the first time. #5 OLE MOLE has lots of zip and procured the sheepskin in the only attempt on firm going. #6 HONORABLE HERO blew up the tote board when taking to the lawn better than a Toro mower, and we'd be remiss in excluding today.  OFF TURF: 4-3(MTO)-7-8-2

 

Race  5

1.Fear

2.Vici

3.Dowse's Beach 

#4 FEAR had a bit of trouble at the onset in an off the turf event on 9/9, but in all actuality, dirt really ain't this one's forte'. Gelding is protected against the claim today, and why not, as he has a win & a third in his last two outings on the sod. #10 VICI gets some much needed class relief today, and is 7:2-1-4 in his last septet outside of stakes company. #6 DOWSE'S BEACH has gone all the way in both starts since being claimed by Jasom "The Miracle Man" Servis, and who are we to exclude?  OFF TURF: 9-7-1(MTO)-6-10 NOTE: AS OF 12:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Aqueduct       ( Current )    1-14     ( $3.40 )      Beatable Favorites      1-2   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %: 5-14      ( 35.7% ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-52     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 23-52    ( 44.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-340   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-340  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1999-9739 ($16,738.90) Beatable Favorites : 294-1048( 28.3% )Favorite's Win %: 3575-9834 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2084-10307 ($17,558.10)Beatable Favorites : 309-1116( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3738-10421( 35.9% )+/-: -14.8% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017