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Once again, I'd like to remind y'all that if you're imbibing during the festivities, please be sure to leave the keys at home. Remember, if you can afford to bet some of our losers, you can afford an Uber ! 

Just a reminder that if you want today's early Pick 4 selections & analysis from Aqueduct, merely go back one page.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 Audible


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Churchill Downs - 11/3 - Breeders' Cup

 

Race  1

1.Big Gemmy

2.Last Bad Habit

3.Hollywood Star

#8 BIG GEMMY has hit the board in 4 of 5 dating back to last summer, and Calhoun ( 20% when brushing his choppers in the morning ) is 5-14 when stretching out his 2nd off the layoff allowance dirt stock ( 3-1 to 9-1 ). The winners returned $8, $8, $11, $10 & $8, and we'll give this one a mild nod in the wide open 10:45 A.M. ( lawdy ) opener. #7 LAST BAD HABIT hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the numbers from way back when were pretty goodly, and this one is worth a gander in the paddock. #1 HOLLYWOOD STAR may plod along for a slice of Sicilian.

 

Race  2

1.Super Sol

2.Aveenu Malcainu

3.Still Having Fun

#12 SUPER SOL has posted some solid speed figs in winning two of three, and in typical Baffert fashion, has hung up a string of bullets since the last score. Just mentioned outfit has won with more than half of their 1 starts with one turn ungraded dirt runners who won 25-75 days ( 7 for 13 ), and $400,000 Awesome Again colt draws ideally in this spot. #10 AVEENU MALCAINU is confidently shipped down here by good guy owner Al Gold today, and why not, as 15-1 M.L. choice has the 3rd best last race Beyer in the group, and why not take a shot for a graded win, as they already have the placings with this one. #11 STILL HAVING FUN has a boatload of back class and is 2-4 @ the dx.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 AUDIBLE fills the bill as T.P. has hit the skids with locally based ungraded stock, as not only is he 0-6 with that type, but the odds on five of 'em were 4-5, 1-5, 3-2, 2-1, & 7-2.

 

Race  3

1.Skye Diamonds

2.Mia Mischief

3.Highway Star

First BC race of the card is the F & M Dirt Sprint, and it's a highly competitive affair. #7 SKYE DIAMONDS has that type of "declining" record that we've grown to love ( 23:10-4-3 ) as it tells us that she has a nose for the line, and this one is also 4:2-0-2 in second off the layoff tries on the sand, as well. #8 MIA MISCHIEF -- 4:2-2-0 right here & 3:1-1-0 off the bench ( with no races overlapping ) -- has only missed the exacta but once in ten races to date, and should be in the top flight early on. #10 HIGHWAY STAR leaves the friendly confines of his favorite track for this, but gutsy New York bred deserves another shot after a miserable run in this deal last year. You'll be getting pretty good value for a game gal.

 

Race  4 

1.Chanteline

2.Stormy Liberal

3.Bucchero

#3 CHANTELINE is a fat 4 for 7 @ this trip ( 5-19 going other dx.'s ) and poses a major threat should the pace be hot up front. Six year old mare has really turned it on since the end of last year, winning 5 of 8. #9 STORMY LIBERAL has been giving his backers conniptions in winning three straight by less than a noggin', but it's hard to argue with the end results, ain't it ? Toss in a perfect 3 for 3 mark at the dist., and it appears to be this one's race to lose. #2 BUCCHERO is 4:2-0-1 in 3rd off the L/O attempts while having been part of the triple in 2/3rd's of his career starts; could be grinding along late in the game.  OFF TURF: 6-3-7-15(AE)-9

 

Race  5

1.City of Light

2.Giant Expectations

3.Seeking the Soul

#1 CITY OF LIGHT has yet to miss the board, owns a string of five straight Beyers in the 100's, and Castellano can sit a pocket trip with this one while saving all the ground down the backside. Sensible selection. #9 GIANT EXPECTATIONS is 1 for 2 in 2nd off the shelf go rounds, and has fired off two extremely crisp breezes since. May spice things up a bit. #6 SEEKING THE SOUL loves the strip, loves the trip, and with Hernandez -- wins at a good clip ( 5:2-2-1 ).

 

Race  6 

1.Fourstar Crook

2.Wild Illusion ( GB )

3.Sistercharlie (Ire)

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #1 FOURSTAR CROOK is quite the credit to the NY Bred program, having gone 19:12-4-1 thus far ( $1.6 million earned ), and accomplished that at five different venues to boot. Adjusted speed figure from the last supersedes anything that 12 other runners in the field have posted in their last troika, and this one positively LOVES running covered up, as attested by the 7 for 8 mark when starting from the innermost three slots ( 5-11 from the four hole on out ). We would definitely sign up for 5-1 right now. #3 WILD ILLUSION (GB) has won back to back G1's overseas ( and three of the last six as well ), and was a solid runner up in the lone time making a left handed spin. #6 SISTERCHARLIE (IRE) has partaken in the exacta in 9 of 10, and do we really need more of a reason than that to include.  OFF TURF: 4-1-2-9-8

 

Race  7

1.Imperial Hint

2.Distinctive B

3.Roy H

#5 IMPERIAL HINT has won 12 of 18 lifetime, and comes in today off two ridiculously easy scores at odds on. Tough animal to knock, but given the 0-2 mark beneath the Twin Spires, we're probably gonna toss a few other runners into our rolling wagers as well. #7 DISTINCTIVE B is another extremely steady sort who has a 4:1-1-1-1 boxscore in 3rd off the break attempts, and soon to be eight year old has by far done his best work at this dx. #9 ROY H goes over the million dollar mark today with a mere 4th place finish, but truth be told, connections are hoping for better and from what we here, the bath reports have been quite exceptional. Another with many layoff lines on the page, but we're assuaged by the fact that this one is two for three in second off the break forays, and is 3 for 4 when starting from the outermost post position ( just one start/win overlapping ). Bobblehead can watch all the action inside of him before making his move on the turn. Extremely dangerous.

 

Race  8 

1.Expert Eye ( GB )

2.Happily ( Ire )

3.Oscar Performance

#7 EXPERT EYE (GB) got the job done in the only try going left handed, and did so against a decent group of Grade 2 foes back home beneath Frankie. Chap handled himself nicely when taking it up a notch just a half month later, and is now in receipt of the wonder drug for the North American debut. You don't often get proven DRF Formulator stats with European trainers, but in this case, Stoute happens to own a 4 for 7 mark with those running in The States who crashed the party less than 111 days ago ( $5, $5, $18 & $8 ). #3 HAPPILY (IRE) lost by less than a length in the lone "3rd start off the L/O", and it was a race not unlike this one in Chantilly. You're getting 15-1 on a horsie who just lost by only a head vs. Grade 1 foes on 10/6. #5 OSCAR PERFORMANCE completes the Fish 'n Chips/Guiness/Apple Pie Tri based on the nice rebound north of the border as well as a poyfect 3 fer 3 mark at the dist.  OFF TURF: 3-10-12-15(AE)-5

 

Race  9 

1.La Force ( Ger )

2.Monomoy Girl

3.Blue Prize ( Arg )

#3 LA FORCE (GER) has a bit of "seconditis" dating back to last fall, having closed out the exacta in 7 of 10, but gal improved by 7.7 adjusted Beyer points the last time she was in a second off the break attempt ( when finishing second to Unique Bella in the Beholder Mile at 25-1 ) and also improved 15.8 adj. pts. when doing the same in the G2 La Canada at 28-1. Even if you split the difference there, and gave her an 11.1 point jump in the speed figure department today, that would put her at an adjusted 101.6 this afternoon. Vale Dori, Unique Bella, Fault, Mopotism, and even Sircat Sally on the sod, this gal is most definitely battle tested, and sometimes all this type needs is a little bit of a break to shock the joint. #11 MONOMOY GIRL was justifiably DQ'd in Philadelphia Park last time out, as she got to wandering in the stretch. That being said, she's improved with each passing call to the post and the race goes through her. #10 BLUE PRIZE (ARG) is 5:3-2-0 in Louisville, has a win & two runner ups in third off the hiatus attempts, and shoots for the four bagger here; logical.

 

Race  10

1.Magical

2.Enable

3.Hunting Horn

#5 MAGICAL drops six pounds of a Grade 1 win at Ascot, and gets the wonder drug for the first time as well. Timeform numbers heading in the right direction, and at 10-1, makes for a viable alternative to the heavy favorite. #2 ENABLE is one of the best in the world, and she's shown brilliance over two different surfaces, on five different track conditions, and heading in three different directions. If you decide to take a pass this race, then at least you may be witnessing something special. #13 HUNTING HORN showed zilch in the most recent, but fared well in the initial turf try in the States, and is not only reunited with the miracle drug today, but with a pilot who gave him a real energetic ride in the penultimate outing.  OFF TURF: 10-11-4-1-12

 

Race  11

1.Collected ( AE )

2.Thunder Snow

3.Yoshida ( Jpn )

Well, the bloom sure has come off the rose of #15 COLLECTED (AE) a bit, hasn't it? Chestnut runner had won six straight over a glib surface before he started going backwards a bit, and the hood is slapped on by BBBB ( Bob Baffert's Baked Beans ) today, and that's of some relevance. Why? Well over the last 60 months, this barn is 4 for 8 when doing that to his graded dirt stayers off breaks of 21-63 days, with the winners coming back $3, $20, $25 & $8. Needs one to get the sniffles in order to get into the gate, but should that be the case, just may surprise in a field with a lot of question marks. Well, #1 THUNDER SNOW sure has made a fantastic turnaround since bucking like the mechanical bull in Gilley's in the Derby last year, hasn't he? Chap has only missed the board twice in eleven starts since then ( Extremely tough Grade One turf jammies ), and of course won the Dubai World Cup this year in impressive fashion. The return to the Red, White & Blue yielded a gutsy runner up finish in the Jockey Club at 7-1 ( adjusted # of 108.3 ), and aside from the aforementioned fiasco, the lone other "3rd off the hibernation" start ended up w/a well clear runner up in a G1 @ Meydan. Snobby Americans may just ignore this one given the bigger local names signed on, but man, you have  that nice last race staring atcha and yer gettin' double digit odds ? Wouldn't you kick yourself if you missed out? #10 YOSHIDA (JPN) is 2 for 2 off "true" layoffs, and may come along late in the game.  NOTE: AS OF 10:32, FRIDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH, THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  12 

1. 

2.

3.

( No analysis for this race )

 

Aqueduct       ( Current )    1-10     ( $3.40 )      Beatable Favorites      1-2   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %: 3-10      ( 30.0% )

Breeders' Cup ( Current )   1-10      ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites     1-2    ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %: 4-10      ( 40.0% )  ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017