KevinCoxItem

Well, the big weekend is upon us, and as usual, I'd like to remind y'all that if you're imbibing during the festivities, please be sure to leave the keys at home. Remember, if you can afford to bet some of our losers, you can afford an Uber !

Just a reminder that if you would also like today's Aqueduct Opening Day full card selections and analysis, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #8 Patch  Race 10 - #10 Rocketry


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Churchill Downs - 11/2 - Breeders' Cup

 

Race  1

1.Mo's M V P

2.Enthrall

3.Sweet Legacy

#1 MO'S M V P was a solid enough 3rd in the lone spin over this surface ( behind a next out winner at 17-1 ), and owns a 3 fer 6 mark when breaking from the inside three slots ( 0-14 otherwise ); best ground saving rider in the country hops on for today's opener. #5 ENTHRALL has been a model of consistency since being transferred over to the Chuckie Lawrence bar, having crashed the fiesta in 6 of 7 ( with the recent quintet coming beneath Edgar ). Just her second start on the dirt to date, but she conducted her business quite well the first time over the stuff, in closing out the tri at 19-1. #2 SWEET LEGACY won his only two turn dirt try right here.

 

Race  2

1.Chess Chief

2.Captain Von Trapp

3.Straight Shot

On our first draft of this race, we narrowed down the field of 11 to just four, and of that quartet, two have excellent DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em ! #5 CHESS CHIEF: Stewart ( 13% day to day ) is a groovy 4 for 6 with second time starting mdspwt. dirt dashers at Churchill downs who ,missed the board < 67 days ago & are 6-1 or lower. Three of the winners paid seven clams & one came back 11 bucks. #6 CAPTAIN VON TRAPP ( a Hungarian WW1 hero, whose history can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_von_Trapp ) is conditioned by The As-Man, who owns a nice 6-11 ledger with the same categories listed above, substituting the odds with 4-1 or under & making it ITM in last -- not OTB. #8 STRAIGHT SHOT bested more than half the field in the October 13th overture --     "Overture, curtains, lights, This is it, the night of nights, No more rehearsing and nursing a part, We know every part by heart, Overture, curtains, lights, This is it, you'll hit the heights, And oh what heights we'll hit, On with the show this is it, Tonight what heights we'll hit, On with the show this is it !!" -- and should move forward off that effort.

 

Race  3

1.Shareholder Value

2.Archanova

3.J Boys Echo

Once again we have some solid trainer stats in play here ( and one of them at a price ! ). #10 SHAREHOLDER VALUE ( who is 3/4's of a length shy of a three race winning streak ) has been snagged out of the last triad, and the recent acquisition is highly relevant, as Kenneally is a poyfect 3 for 3 when stepping up his fresh dirt purchases by 50% or more ( $4, $4 & $5 ). Note that this chap got the job done in his only foray from an outside slot. #2 ARCHANOVA ( 2 for 5 @ the dist./1 for 17 at other trips ) has a touch of back class & Wilkes doesn't wilt when cutting back his optional dirt equines at 16-1 or less right here ( out of the $ in last ). He also has an unblemished 3-3 mark in that area, with similarly priced mutuels of $4, $4 & $7. #7 J BOYS ECHO won the Gotham in a 2nd off the shelf attempt, and lost by a honker the only other time he did so for Romans, who's 2 for 4 with optional dirt sprinters at this locale off that kind of a break ( 10-1 or undah ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 PATCH fills the bill, as The Toddster is a woeful 1-35 with runners of this ilk off absences of 24-45 days ( 3-2 to 9-2 ).

 

Race  4 

1.Improbable

2.Marquee Prince

3.Reward the Miracle

#2 IMPROBABLE was all out to procure the sheepskin at 2 to 5 in Arcadia, and the top flight pedigree tells us that the score was no aberration. Bob Baffert's Baked Beans is a charming 5 for 7 with second time sprinting starters off a maiden win at 5-1 or lower ( ungraded events ). #9 MARQUEE PRINCE has gotten better and better, with the last two tallies coming under different circumstances, which shows versatility. Goes one turn for the 1st time today and you're getting a runner who won by a pole in the last at 6-1. #6 REWARD THE MIRACLE is a $1,000 bred animal who has earned 46 times that amount thus far, and has done so on the turf, on the dirt, going, going short, on the front end & from off the pace. Doesn't that all sound swell at double digit odds ?

 

Race  5

1.Van Beethoven ( AE )

2.So Perfect

3.Sergei Prokofiev

16 signed on for the first Breeders' Cup race of the afternoon, and believe it or not, seven are conditioned by just two trainers. We're gonna heavily lean towards one of them, and start with the #15 VAN BEETHOVEN (AE). O'Brien charge hasn't shown much of late, but got the job done the only time he went left handed, and did so rather easily. As usual with these imports, the wonder drug is added for the first time, and colt totes the lightest impost of his career. Price play if three others get the sniffles. #10 SO PERFECT ( I can relate ! ) may have "just" a 2 for 6 career mark, but the four losses have come by an average of a mere 1.19 lengths, and this is another who gets juice while having success at the trip. #8 SERGEI PROKOFIEV ( named after a Russian composer ) overcame some trouble when winning a Grade 3 over in England on October 12th, and that may act as a confidence booster for one who had two disappointing efforts just prior to that.  OFF TURF: 4-9-7-8-15(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 10:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.La Pelosa

2.Pakhet

3.Just Wonderful

#5 LA PELOSA closed nicely to get up in time to win the Natalma at Woodbine a month and a half ago, and although this one goes two turns for the first time, we like the versatility shown in winning left handed, right handed ( on poly ), and having placed twice on a straightaway. Price play. #10 PAKHET has yet to miss an exacta, and the career best numero came at her highest level to date. #4 JUST WONDERFUL may come along late for a share.  OFF TURF: 1-9-7-10-8

 

Race  7

1.Cassies Dreamer

2.Bellafina

3.Restless Rider

Barclay Tagg had us all scratching our heads up in Saratoga when he plunked down half a C-Note for #5 CASSIES DREAMER first time out of the box, as that was just his second purchase in the last five years, but obviously he knew what he was doing, as this miss went on to win by two in the goo. By the time we saw she was 68-1 in the Spinaway, we were running out of head to scratch, but once again he was proven correct, as she came along nicely to snag the show dough. She always seems to get in a bit of trouble at the onset, and that was never more true than in the most recent at 4-1, but note the speed figure improved that afternoon, and although she still appears light from a Beyer aspect, sometimes these babies can improve by leaps and bounds; Franco ready to burst on the national scene. #10 BELLAFINA has a "beautiful & fine" lifetime ledger of 4:3-1-0, and that includes an open lengths win when losing the hood and going long for the first time 34 days ago. Should be able to utilize her speed to gain tactical position from today's outside slot, and the Juvenile Fillies goes through her. #4 RESTLESS RIDER has done very little wrong to date, and while the last win was visually impressive, keep in mind that it came with the addition of Lasix, and sometimes horses can regress in the second outing after an equipment or medication change.

 

Race  8 

1.Opry

2.Forty Under

3.King of Speed

#8 OPRY immolated some baccala when being fanned seven wide in the Pilgrim at Elmont on 9/29, and aside from getting hing out to dry, she may not have cared for the soft going that afternoon. There have been a couple of crisp back to back morning moves for this one since that day, and a nice DRF Formulator stat is in play here. Over the last five years, Pletcher is a tight 3 for 5 with locally based graded turf stayers who finished out of the money 23-45 days back, and just look at the prices: $57, $17 & $10. The intriguing thing about that angle, is that the barn is 0-6 when substituting in the money with that survey. #4 FORTY UNDER is 2 for 2 since being switched over to the gramma, and the last tally showed a slight improvement in the number dept. while being hiked up in class. Hard to fault. #11 KING OF SPEED shoots for the hat trick today off a lifetime bet figaro.  OFF TURF: 15(AE)-3-12-6-2

 

Race  9 

1.Standard Deviation

2.Complexity

3.Game Winner

#8 STANDARD DEVIATION was marooned in the stakes/route bow, but has eye cups added this afternoon, and 26% shedrow is a fat 4 for 6 when doing that to their graded stock off breaks of 3 months or lower. The nifty part about this are the returning mutuels of $9, $13, $39 & $30 -- that's saying a lot for this outfit. #6 COMPLEXITY ( the second half of the uncoupled entry with the above ) has essentially gone pillar to post in both starts to date, but we're not quite sure how he'll handle today's initial try going 2X so will leave beneath. #9 GAME WINNER has improved with each start thus far and goes for the grand salami today; your winter Kentucky Derby favorite with a score here.

 

Race  10

1.Big Dollar Bill

2.Senior Investment

3.Term of Art

The day's nitecap is the Grade 2 Marathon, and we feel this should be a G1 staple of the B.C., as it would encourage more distance runners in the sport.  #7 BIG DOLLAR BILL has won 3 of 6 ( 1 of the prior 10 ), shot off a best of 40 breeze on my birthday ( don't worry if you missed it -- you can get me a drink next year ! ), and 14% clan is 7:3-2-0 with CD stabled graded dirt routers who won off this type of break ( $12, $4 & $14 ). #5 SENIOR INVESTMENT is 3:1-1-0-1 in second off the break attempts and is also 2:0-1-1 in Louisville ( with none of those races overlapping. ). #1 TERM OF ART closes out our day.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 ROCKETRY will be led over by an hombre who's 1 fer 13 with those going long on the sand at this level coming in off a win ( 7-1 or < ).

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-52     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 23-52    ( 44.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-340   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-340  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1999-9739 ($16,738.90) Beatable Favorites : 294-1048( 28.3% )Favorite's Win %: 3575-9834 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2084-10307 ($17,558.10)Beatable Favorites : 309-1116( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3738-10421( 35.9% )+/-: -14.8% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017