KevinCoxItem

 

Just a reminder that if you want today's Breeders' Cup full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 11/3 - Early Pick 4 

 

Race  2

1.Zap Zap Zap 

2.Richard the Great

3.Fleet Irish

#5 ZAP ZAP ZAP has been snagged in three straight, and with good reason, as this one is a fairly consistent sort. Four year old gelding owns a win over the strip, and Rudy Rod is an astounding 17 for 34 when entering new purchases right here at this level on the sand, and of course, has a positive ROI in that regards. #6 RICHARD THE GREAT finds himself at his lowest level to date, and above named 20% conditioner bats 31% ( 8-26 ) with locally based mid level dirt stock returning off breaks of 53-107 days. #1 FLEET IRISH has hit the board in all three starts when breaking from the innermost two slots, and may plod along late.  NOTE: AS OF 10:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Japonski

2.Manifest Destiny

3.Snake Oil Charlie

#8 JAPONSKI has hit the board in 5 of 6 at the dist. and Derek Ryan is a tight 2 for 5 when stretching out his mid level turf stock who missed the money < 32 days back & are below 40-1 today ( $27 & $11 ). #1 MANIFEST DESTINY owns a 3:1-0-1 mark at this trip ( 16:1-2-0 otherwise ) and is 2 fer 3 when beginning from the inside two posts ( 0-16 from the three hole on out ). May perk up with switch to a bug today. #2 SNAKE OIL CHARLIE comes in today off of ( for him ) an excellent effort when last seen at the end of July, and nay be overlooked a bit given the connections.  OFF TURF: 3-7-10-11(MTO)-16

 

Race  4 

1.Thirsty Gal 

2.Pas de Deuce

3.My Roxy Girl

#3 THIRSTY GAL drops weight off of a win ( which we always like ) and shoots for the hat trick today. Papa Englehart is a perfect 3 for 3 with 2nd off the claim allowance dirt stock coming in off a win, and we like that this one can send, or rate a bit. #7 PAS DE DEUCE was apparently overmatched in the Fleet Indian, but returns to her proper level today and has been freshened since the flop. We've always been a HUGE fan of the #6 MY ROXY GIRL, as she tries hard each and every time, and we like that she regained some of her form in the last; local 8:3-4-0 mark positively leaps off the page. 

 

Race  5

1.Crack Shot ( AE )

2.Kid Chocolate ( AE ) 

3.Wacky Pal ( AE ) 

Our top three will all need a little luck in order to face the starter this afternoon, but should that be the case...  #14 CRACK SHOT (AE) went for 14X the breeding price at auction earlier this year, owns sensational back to back gate breezes, and will have what we consider an advantageous slot should he draw in. Note that the paternal granddam was 3:1-1-0 on the sod. #13 KID CHOCOLATE (AE) was a mite tardy to the party in the lone turf dash and deserves another shot at doing so with today's cutback -- especially at a price. #12 WACKY PAL (AE) is a $1,000 bred runner who was bought for 67K and had a best of 97 breeze just eight das ago.  OFF TURF: 11(AE)-12(AE)-16(MTO)-8-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #15 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Aqueduct       ( Current )    1-10     ( $3.40 )      Beatable Favorites      1-2   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %: 3-10      ( 30.0% )

Breeders' Cup ( Current )   1-10      ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites     1-2    ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %: 4-10      ( 40.0% )  

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-52     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 23-52    ( 44.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-340   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-340  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1999-9739 ($16,738.90) Beatable Favorites : 294-1048( 28.3% )Favorite's Win %: 3575-9834 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2084-10307 ($17,558.10)Beatable Favorites : 309-1116( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3738-10421( 35.9% )+/-: -14.8% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017