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As always at the end of a meet, full disclosure here...While our ROI was substantially lower than we're used to, our Beatable Favorites once again beat the grain, and after more than 10,000 races, we have shaved 1.8 points ( 11.1% ) off the overall takeout, and that number is even better if you exclude synthetic tracks ( 2.8 points/16.7% ). Let's get THIS meet off to a good start !!

Just a reminder that if you want today's Breeders' Cup analysis, merely go back one page !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #4 Impazible Odds  Race 4 - #8 Our Circle of Love


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 11/2 - Opening Day !

 

Race  1

1.Hot Mesa

2.Telecommunication

3.Freudian Analyst

#2 HOT MESA has hit the board in three straight and owns the best collection of speed figures in the field. Sensible selection in the opener at a joint we'll be doping out for the next half'a year. #8 TELECOMMUNICATION undergoes a gamut of changes today ( turf to dirt, drop in class, first time blinkers, jockey change ) and would only need to find one of those agreeable to crash the party. #3 FREUDIAN ANALYST comes in today off the first freshening of his career, and may spice things up in the back end at a price.  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Corot

2.Pagliacci 

3.Dirty

#9 COROT showed decent early hoof before fading in the lone turf try, but that was a route, and as the lone poly sprint yielded an open length win, we feel this one is eligible to surprise at a square number. Backers of #3 PAGLIACCI haven't been doing much laughing since this one scored first time out, as there's been a string of ten straight defeats since. Nonetheless, the overall body of work is decent enough to merit inclusion in the "unders", so we'll do just that. #1 DIRTY is a perfect 3 for 3 in firm turf tries, but 'Miah is a woeful 0-13 with allowance turf dashers who hit the board 29-87 days ago; mixed signals. OFF TURF: 7-2-10-5(MTO)-6

 

Race  3

1.Tolaga Bay

2.Cotton House

3.Bridgetothefuture

#8 TOLAGA BAY ( located in New Zealand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tolaga_Bay ) more than outran his odds when besting more than half the field in the turf bow on August 18th, and both subsequent outings have failed to stay on the stuff. Lasix wasn't in the mix for the aforementioned outing, but it sure is today, and hometown rider comes up for the mount. #10 COTTON HOUSE takes the biggest drop in the game today, as he stretches out for the "2nd time turf" try, and happens to be receiving the wonder drug for the first time as well. McCarthy slumped the last time he rode steadily in New York, so keep that in mind this fall/winter. #5 BRIDGETOTHEFUTURE lost by less than five when breaking from the pine first time out ( on a firm turf course ), and the adjusted speed figure of 52.8 stands up nicely to the rest of this allotment.  OFF TURF: 4-7-8-1A-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 IMPAZIBLE ODDS  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Science Fiction

2.Cottonwood Falls

3.Sweet Avery

#5 SCIENCE FICTION is a nibblah by nature ( 6:0-1-5 on the sand ), but has been firing bullets for the comebacker and has done well enough off the bench, and barn's go to rider hops on for the first start after the transaction. #6 COTTONWOOD FALLS has a couple of decent morning moves for today's overture, and is a half to Major League ( "Hats...for bats." ) who is ( was?) 5 for 20 in dirt sprints, banking 158K along the way. #1 SWEET AVERY has been freshened up a bit and shot off a bullet breeze of 47 & 2 on 10/16 for this.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 OUR CIRLE OF LOVE fills the bill, as Nevin is 0-8 with 2nd off the L/O mdspwt. turf stock at 7-1 or less.

 

Race  5

1.Sal the Turtle

2.Summer Bourbon

3.Bluegrass Flash

#7 SAL THE TURTLE should positively demolish this field if he makes it over to the races, as given the last race fig, he could probably beat much tougher. #2 SUMMER BOURBON will be the only saver we'll be utilizing here, given the freshening off the claim, removal of blinkers, and penchant for hitting the board. The grey gelding #9 BLUEGRASS FLASH has hit the board in half of his 40 lifetime starts, and is 5:2-1-0 in second off the layoff tries. Toss in a 1 for 3 mark when breaking from the outside, and this is a deserving toss in. 

 

Race  6 

1.Skole ( AE )

2.Ninja Dust

3.Party With Friends ( AE )

#11 SKOLE (AE) ( which is a town in the Ukraine, as well as the Norwegian word for "school" ) needs one to declare in order to face the starter, but should that be the case, brings in tow a debut where he showed some speed going longer, and a nice breeze since then. January foal has a maturity edge over pretty much the entire bunch, and hometown pilot makes the northern sojourn. #10 NINJA DUST begins his professional career today, and owns a bullet gate breeze, which always merits inclusion. Dam never raced on the sod, but sire was 7:5-1-1 on the synthetic, and note that this one was schooled on the gramma this summer. #13 PARTY WITH FRIENDS (AE) showed little in the bow, but that was an off the turf event, and this one went for 200K at auction, so deserves another chance.  OFF TURF: 3-16(MTO)-15(MTO)-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Petrov 

2.Delta Prince

3.Bon Raison

A graded seven furlong deal ? To quote Heath Ledger as the Joker: "Now you're talking !"  This one is named after the Hall of Famer, Bold Ruler. For some history on this legend, check out this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bold_Ruler . #4 PETROV positively flopped in Oklahoma City, but that was his 11th different layout from 19 starts, and hey -- do you sleep comfortably in ALL the hotels you sleep in ? Grey chap is 2 for 4 @ the dx., and rates a large chance if able to reach back to the penultimate effort. #6 DELTA PRINCE hasn't touched the sand in quite some time, but by no means disgraced himself over the stuff way back when, and has been going gangbusters over the stuff in the A.M.'s. Double J has added eye cups to but ONE graded dirt runner, and that was Wicked Strong before he won the Jim Dandy. #5 BON RAISON has proven to be a sensational claim by a resurgent Gary Contessa, as this $16,000 purchase is making Pletcher look bad, having netted $54,450 in two stylish wins since. Colt drops 108 ounces off a score ( you figure it out ! ), and we'll chunk this one beneath, given the interesting turnaround of late. 

 

Race  8 

1.Risky Sour 

2.Elenzee

3.Ides of Arch

#4 RISKY SOUR nearly blew up the tote board at 94-1 in the most recent, and although being a fringe player by rote, we feel there will still be some value offered here, given the low percentage connections. #2 ELENZEE led most of the way around before getting caught late in the game in a nearly identical spot last time out, and has a bug assigned today, which should improve his freewheelin' prospects. #4 IDES OF ARCH may come along late for a share.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-1(MTO)-2-3-13(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Takechargemirella

2.Enliven

3.Two Dozen Roses

#1 TAKECHARGEMIRELLA & #8 ENLIVEN are both backed by identical 3 for 3 DRF Formulator stats which has McL. at just that with locally based graded dirt dashers coming in off a maiden score, and the former has been freshened up since the win, while the latter improved substantially from the first start to the second. #5 TWO DOZEN ROSES was generously placed first in the only 1X dirt try up in the Adirondacks, and is an obvious factor if able to revert to that effort.  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Rapid Route

2.Twofer

3.Malarkey

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #2 RAPID ROUTE drops down a few pegs after splitting the field on 10/19 and rates a slight edge. #5 TWOFER is 3rd off the layoff for the first time today while finding herself at her lowest level to date. #4 MALARKEY is dropped down $24,000 below the price claimed two starts back and as the last was particularly poor, it would behoove you to take a gander at this one pre-race. 

  

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-52     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 23-52    ( 44.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-340   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-340  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1999-9739 ($16,738.90) Beatable Favorites : 294-1048( 28.3% )Favorite's Win %: 3575-9834 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2084-10307 ($17,558.10)Beatable Favorites : 309-1116( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3738-10421( 35.9% )+/-: -14.8% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017