KevinCoxItem

Just two chalky winners on another day laden with the stuff. Eeeesh.... 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 10/27

 

Race  1

1.Lex Vegas

2.Spartiatis

3.Nobody Move

#8 LEX VEGAS makes his first start for Eddie Barker today, and right away, he enlists the services of a bug to give this one a bit of break off the bench. Gelding happens to own a 1 for 3 mark when breaking from the outside, and the aforementioned conditioner is a tight 6:3-2( 10-1 & 22-1 )-1 when being handed a runner and bringing them back off breaks of 5-160 days ( < 30-1 ). The winners returned $18, $7 & $9, and this one is in at an all time low. #3 SPARTIATIS ( winner of the Grade 3 Tom Fool ) is another in here who has never seen this level, and Papa Englehart has won with half of his six starts with second off the claim/third off the layoff mid level dirt stock who missed the board in last ( $13, $9 & $27 ). Maragh returns despite going eight wide in a six horse field ( what ?? ) last time out. #4 NOBODY MOVE is halved in price after a rare claim by Mott in last ( 1-4 when doing so ) and has hit the board in ALL eleven tries here.

 

Race  2

1.Classic Lady

2.Keota

3.La Naturel ( Ire )

#5 CLASSIC LADY finished third in an identical spot here 20 days back, and as the last "firm" turf outing was several adjusted points higher, we see some room for an improvement this afternoon. 14% shotcaller is a fat 22:9-2-1 with allowance turf stayers who crashed the fiesta less than 40 days back & are 15-1 or beneath ( 3.89 ROI ). #2 KEOTA has improved with each and every start ( all the while stepping up in class ) and shoots for the hat trick today after the re-claim by McL. Grey gal is 4:1-0-1-1 over this course and is a MUST inclusion in all your rolling action. #7 LA NATUREL (IRE) can be forgiven the last two ( off the turf & yielding ground ), and although this one is mainly a sprinter, the lone routing try yielded a solid third place finish at the longest odds of his career. Dylan knows how to get 'em out there, and I can realistically see us making this one the top choice if the M.L. ( which ain't out yet as of this writing ) is generous enough.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-10-2-6(MTO)-12(MTO)

 

Race  3

1.Queen Kantharos

2.Awesome Alana

3.Forever Changed

We're actually seeing this race as a bit more wide open than you would think, and will give a slight nod to the #6 QUEEN KANTHAROS. February foal has the highest Tomlinson in the field ( 431 ) from a sire that we feel is the absolute best value in the breeding industry today ( Kantharos ), and while we always say that a bullet gate breeze merits automatic inclusion -- this one has a 2nd best of 75 move, and a 4th best of 76 breeze. There should be good value with a low percentage rider assigned. #1 AWESOME ALANA positively immolated some baccala at first asking, but top flight pedigree says she deserves another shot. #3 FOREVER CHANGED outran her odds when finishing third in the overture, but has fired off a crisp move since then, and obviously figures.

 

Race  4 

1.Absolved

2.Order and Law

3.Empire of War

We really don't have a good read on this stakes, so be careful... #4 ABSOLVED ( by "Blame"...ya get it ? ) was an honest enough 4th in the first foray on the grass, and may appreciate today's stretchout. #9 ORDER AND LAW went from zero to hero in getting up by a schnozola going short down in Maryland nearly three dozen days ago, and we like the versatility that's been shown under three sets of circumstances to date. Hometown jockey comes with the equine. #6 EMPIRE OF WAR went coast to coast like butter and toast right here three weeks back, and we see no reason to exclude today.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-8(MTO)-6-3(MTO)-9

 

Race  5

1.Sierra Sarah

2.Sweet Avery

3.Sienna Blue Eyes

On our first draft of of this race we were unable to eliminate any runners, and when utilizing the DRF Formulator platform, we ascertained that all trainers had ohfer stats in all pertinent categories, so let's shoot for a price, shall we? #7 SIERRA SARAH has a couple of okay morning moves for today's debut, and this is the first foal to race out of a dam who was 10 fer 18 in dirt dashes while being sired by an hombre who was 5:3-2-0 doing the same. Expecting this one to send and hoping she'll forget to stop. #6 SWEET AVERY shot off an uncharacteristically sizzling 47 & 2 bullet for today's comebacker a week and a half ago, and in this allotment, that's enough reason to toss in. #1 SIENNA ( after using "Sierra" ! ) BLUE EYES rounds out the top three.

 

Race  6 

1.Transaction Tax

2.Brattata

3.Nellysford

#2 TRANSACTION TAX showed zippo in the last, but let's be a bit fair, as there was a touch of set at the break, and gal is 0-3 when the turf has some moisture in it. Meekest of selections to rebound on the cutback with better going. #5 BRATTATA is clearly the class of this field and was a lively runner up in the only turf try over firm ground. #3 NELLYSFORD has been a part of the action in 3 of 5 over the blades and Franco sees fit to hop on.  OFF TURF: 12-13-(MTO)-6-7-10(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Bernin' Thru Gold 

2.Itgot Grandma

3.Ninja Dust

There are three decent sets of trainer stats in play here, so let's hop to 'em !  #3 BERNIN' THRU GOLD: Mark Hennig ( 13% when tying his shoes in the morning ) is 6:3-2-0 with locally based second time starters who were 1-2-3 in the last and are 10-1 or less today ( $16, $7 & $3 ). #9 ITGOT GRANDMA: DePAz is De Man when it comes to his 2 year old male firsters at this level, ( 13-1 or < ) as he's 4 fer 10 with 'em ( $25, $3, $4 & $3 ). #4 NINJA DUST: 12% Carlito is 2-7 with Belmont first time maiden special weight dirt starters at 20-1 or lower ( 2YO's ). The winners came back $16, $7 & $3 & note that this one went for 3X the stud fee at auction.

 

Race  8 

1.Hizeem

2.Sand Dancer

3.Rose's Vision

#5 HIZEEM was moved up to first in a very rare -- and very controversial double DQ up at the Spa towards the end of the meet. I had no dogs in the race that day ( no bets ) but thoroughly enjoyed walking around the track afterwards listening to all the reactions. ( Many people left the joint. ) Anyhoo, this one has at the very least proven to be a consistent sort with a lot of potential, who sheds weight after a win ( which we dig ) while owning a first out placing over the surface. Feel free to place an upwards arrow next to the recent sextet  of the #2 SAND DANCER, as this one is most definitely heading in the right direction -- and at some decent odds, to boot. This one picks up seven lbs. to a career high impost today, so we'll leave beneath. #7 ROSE'S VISION bested a next out winner in the most recent, and has partaken in the exacta in 3 of 4.  OFF TURF: 5-9-1(MTO)-6-8

 

Race  9 

1.Petrov

2.Delta Prince

3.Bon Raison

A graded seven furlong deal ? To quote Heath Ledger as the Joker: "Now you're talking !"  This one is named after the Hall of Famer, Bold Ruler. For some history on this legend, check out this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bold_Ruler . #5 PETROV positively flopped in Oklahoma City, but that was his 11th different layout from 19 starts, and hey -- do you sleep comfortably in ALL the hotels you sleep in ? Grey chap is 2 for 4 @ the dx., and rates a large chance if able to reach back to the penultimate effort. #6 DELTA PRINCE hasn't touched the sand in quite some time, but by no means disgraced himself over the stuff way back when, and has been going gangbusters over the stuff in the A.M.'s. Double J has added eye cups to but ONE graded dirt runner, and that was Wicked Strong before he won the Jim Dandy. #2 BON RAISON has proven to be a sensational claim by a resurgent Gary Contessa, as this $16,000 purchase is making Pletcher look bad, having netted $54,450 in two stylish wins since. Colt drops 108 ounces off a score ( you figure it out ! ), and we'll chunk this one beneath, given the interesting turnaround of late.

 

Race  10

1.Magical Romance

2.Seattle Frost ( AE )

3.Saratoga Sass

#11 MAGICAL ROMANCE closed out the triple in the only go round over firm ground, and although she's only beaten home four in the last triad of outings, could perk up a bit if the ground comes up solid enough. #14 SEATTLE FROST (AE) gave us a thrill back in June when we had her on top at 71-1, as she finished a lively third beneath Luzzi. The two followups didn't bear much fruit, but she nearly lit up the tote board when losing by just a length right here at 90-1. Needs some luck to get in, but could jazz things up once again should she face the starter. #7 SARATOGA SASS was given a bit of a break after the last, and tries a one turn on the lawn for the 1st time while picking up a decent pilot.  OFF TURF: 8-6-16(MTO)-9-1

 


Belmont        ( Current )    51-311  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:123-311  ( 39.4% )( As of Saturday morning )

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Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017