One was the loneliest number for us yesterday, as we wind down a washout of a meet ( literally and figuratively ), as I had read that yesterday was the first time in 32 days we had firm turf. Combine that with 40% favorites coming in, it's safe t0 say -- Bring on the Big A !!

As a few inquiries have been coming in, wanna let y'all know I WILL be giving full card selections & analysis for BOTH days of the for , & , as well as Friday's complete writeup from and their early Pick 4's on Saturday & Sunday !!


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Belmont Park - 10/26


Race  1




#5 ALMITHMAAR set a blistering half mile in the most recent, and understandably faded late in the game at 5-2. The good news tho, is that there was a bullet breeze at Oklahoma since then, and MCL. owns a tidy 3 fer 8 mark with optional dirt stock right here off breaks of 18-36 days, Slight edge in a difficult opener. After being claimed in four straight outings, #1 IMPERATORE is hiked up in class for the first straight time today, and with good reason, as this seven year old ( way to go ! ) is in the best form of his life. Gullo is a solid enough 3 for 11 with locally based first off the claim dirt stock returning in less than 50 days at 15-1 or lower, with mutuels of $6, $16 & $22. #4 HELOOKSTHEPART is another gristled veteran who gets to within a couple'a grand of the half million dollar mark with a win today, and that's definitely a possibilty, given his fondness for this trip ( 4-10 ). 


Race  2

1.Mr. Dougie Fresh 

2.Frontier Market


#4 MR. DOUGIE FRESH is 2 for 2 in third off the layoff tries and 1 fer 2 at the dx.; slight edge in anther wide open event. #9 FRONTIER MARKET is a nibbler by rote ( 7:1-5-0 ), and the place slot seems like a good fit once again. #5 ANOTHER had a brutal trip in the most recent, but scored right here just prior to that, and may be a bit of an overlay this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 9-3(MTO)-4-6(MTO)-7


Race  3

1.Steam Engine

2.Wild Boar

3.Show Prince

#3 STEAM ENGINE runs to his moniker today. #5 WILD BOAR gets off the rail today after a troubled debut while maintaing the pre-layoff pilot; chance for improvement. #6 SHOW PRINCE more than outran his odds in the career starter when completing the exacta on 10/6, and given the decent 354 Tomlinson figure, it was likely no abarration. This is another who gets off the pine this afternoon, and there's also been a bullet breeze since, 


Race  4 

1.Psychic Energy

2.Tiz a Chance

3.The Crocheron Kid

#7 PSYCHIC ENERGY is 3 for 8 at this trip ( 0-7 going other distances of ground ), and two of those scores have come beneath Johnny V. Slimmest of margins in another competitive heat. #5 TIZ A CHANCE has a decent 6:0-4-1 ledger over the inner, and despite the recent dirt flops, this one has always proven to be a better animal on the gramma. #6 THE CROCHERON KID rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3-1(MTO)-2-5-6


Race  5

1.Baker entry

2.Our American Star

3.San Juan Diego

#1 LIGHT THE POSSE and #1A READY TO ESCAPE both comprise strong halves of the Charlie Baker entry here. The former has followed the disappointing comebacker with a bullet breeze, and if you can see your way clear of thhe last, then what you have are back to back placings to start out the career ( one right here at 17-1 ) before the freshening. The latter has yet to finish out of the money, and just ran behind a next out winner ( another Baker horse ) who improved in the Beyer department from a 69 to a 94. #3 OUR AMERICAN STAR has hit the board in 10 of 23 on the sand, and one of the placings was in the only "third off the L/O" attempt. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the recent quartet of #6 SAN JUAN DIEGO, as he's been heading in the right direction during that stretch, culminating with a carer best numero 18 days ago. Must use in all your rolling action. 


Race  6 


2.Keep Quiet ( Fr )

3.Miles of Humor

#1 TATHQEEF has an excellent collection of speed figures and is available for purchase for the first time today, which is relevant, as Kiaran is a jazzy 9:4-0-2 when doing that to his turf stayers off breaks of 80 days or less. Those who found the line first paid $12, $18, $9 & $11, and you should recognize that this one is 1 for 2 over this particular course. #6 KEEP QUIET (FR) closed out the triple in the lone 2nd off the L/O attempt, and we'll give this one another shot here ( hopefully ) switching back to firm ground. #2 MILES OF HUMOR has a win and a placing in just as many forays over these blades, and what the gosh darn is wrong with that?  OFF TURF: 1-8-10-11(MTO)-4


Race  7

1.Epic Dreamer


3.Felix the Fox

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #2 EPIC DREAMER was a troubled but well clear runner up in the onset to his working life on September 23rd, but the numero earned was by far the best that anyone in this race has produced... which is nice ( gunga galunga ). Aside from that, 18% headmaster is a lovely 8 for 19 with second time maiden special weight dirt dashers who crashed the party 17-51 days back ( 5-2 or "undah", as they say in Beantown ), and there's a majah jockey change in store now. #1 MIHOS ( which reminds me of "Miho" from 'Sin City' ) finished two and change behind the above in the aforementioned heat, but DOES get the "Miracle Drug" for the first time, and COULD move up a bit. We'll chunk in the #8 FELIX THE FOX ( a cross breed with "Felix the Cat" ? ) because the second place finish last time out came without a Beyer speed figure ( which is rare ).


Race  8 


2.Bloody Point

3.Sister Sophia

I hate this race... I hate ALL turf sprints...There's a special place in hell where the creator of turf sprints has to watch the Emergency Broadcast System alert 24 hours a day. I spent 37 minutes doping out this race, and I'm noy gonna gas ya' and wax eloquent about my choices, so here ya go: #11 ORECCHIETE...#9 BLOODY POINT...#3 SISTER SOPHIA.  OFF TURF: 3-4-11-13(MTO)-2  Okay, can we move on to the finale please ?


Race  9 

1.Lil Commissioner

2.Bobby G

3.Kulin Rock

Once again, we won't be going any deeper than our 1-2-3 for all our rolling bets. #7 LIL COMMISSIONER makes his first start at this level ( on a firnm turf course ) after the maiden breaking effort, and is a HUGE threat ( What's up with us and the capital letters today ?) if able to revert to that start. #5 BOBBY G improved precipitously when going turf to dirt, but we'll leave beneath, as Motion has been trumped by the competition in 65 of his last 67 starts in New York. #9 KULIN ROCK was a troubled, but well clear runner up in an identical spot 200+ miles northward in the most recent foray, and is totally logical versus these. OFF TURF: 13(AE)-9-5-15(MTO)-14(MTO) 


Belmont        ( Current )    49-302  ( $374.40 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:119-302  ( 39.4% )( As of Friday morning )


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  

Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout