KevinCoxItem

Just two on the day yesterday, but one of them was our big writeup, "Play of the Meet", who got the job done to the tune of eight bucks. It took two months to get paid, but it was worth the wait !!

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #3 Outrageous Bet


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Belmont Park - 10/25

 

Race  1

1.Aly's All Out

2.Promise Me Roses

3.Zecha

#5 ALY'S ALL OUT finally gets two starts clear of a layoff line, has some nice speed, goes from an apprentice to a journeyman, and Gullo ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 4 with locally based maiden claiming dirt stock off breaks of 33 days or less ( < 6-1 ), with the winners paying $7 & $8. #3 PROMISE ME  ROSES has the best overall collection of Beyers in the lot & takes the biggest dop in the game; logical. #7 ZECHA has closed out the exacta in three straight and makes sense once again. 

 

Race  2

1.Flat Calm 

2.Broman Entry

3.Might Be

#5 FLAT CALM has gone 40-65-75 in her three dirt outings to date ( two of them wins, with the second of which occurring in the lone start over this oval ), and Linda makes an unconventional move in making an equipment change after a score. We've always admired trainers who are confident enough in their skills in doing such a thing, and Rice happens to be an astounding 8 for 10 when removing the hood ( not for the first time ) with those who last raced 22-55 days ago & are 10-1 or undah today. The ROI for that sampling is an amazing $7.32, and this one sheds 32 oz. off the win, which is another angle we dig. #1  RACHEL'S BLUE MOON & #1A HELD ACCOUNTABLE have both done well at this trip and over this strip, and should make a little noise today. #2  MIGHT BE owns a win & a 4th place finish from as many "second off the L/O" tries and has enough zippiness to hang on for a piece.  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Carom

2.Argonne

3.No Mans Land

#2 CAROM has posted honest enough turf numbers thus far, and may be somewhat overlooked in this spot. Slimmest of margins. #1A ARGONNE was set down on the 5th of July after banging into a couple of competitors on his was to crossing the finish line first, and Bond promptly gave this one plenty of time off afterwards to sort out a few things. Double D returns this afternoon, and colt poses a major threat if fully cranked up. #5 NO MANS LAND missed by a sliver in a heat where the top four were separated by less than a half length last  time out, and seems to have turned the corner of late.  OFF TURF: 6-7-3-1(MTO)-4

 

Race  4 

1.Introspection

2.Off Topic

3.Dovey Lovey

After some deep thought and a lot of soul searching, we've decided to make the #4 INTROSPECTION our top selection here. Filly's numbers are heading in the right direction, and appears to be the most consistent performer in the cast. #6 OFF TOPIC finished just ahead of the above last time out, but as the figure earned was substantially higher than the debut, we see the potential for a bounce, and will utilize as our only saver to the above. #7 DOVEY LOVEY is another who appears to figuring things out, but seems to be just a smidge below the top choice. 

 

Race  5

1.Quick Charge

2.Klickitat

3.Doups Point

We've always been fond of fading dirt dashers stretching out on the sod for the first time, as sometimes they can get a bit brave if able to relax a little bit on the front end. That being said, we'll give a tepid nod to the #11 QUICK CHARGE here. Pugh 'charge' bested half the field in the bow when losing by less than three in the bow, and succumed in the initial dirt try after showing some nice early hoof. January bred has a maturity edge over the rest, and we'll be pinning our hopes to a wire job. #8 KLICKITAT is a $15,000 bred runner who went for nearly 15X time that amount at auction, and is a half to a 1 for 3 turf stayer who banked more than 45 large. #10 DOUPS POINT closed out the exacta in the infamous turf route up north which was ( bwahahaha ! ) run at the wrong distance, with NO penalty given to the officials involved. Anyway, blinkers have been added since then, and we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 9-2-10-4-1

 

Race  6 

1.All Clear 

2.Presence of Mind 

3.The Chamo

#5 ALL CLEAR is 3rd off tge layoff today and finds himself at his lowest level to date. Meeeeeekest of selections in a race that's kinda hard to hug. #3  PRESENCE OF MIND is available for purchase for the first time this afternoon, and the lone win came over this strip way back when. #7 THE CHAMO was vanned off and is now assigned his second apprentice in as many outings, so obviously, there's something cooking here. That being said, the last was okay, but you should still take a long, hard look pre race. 

 

Race  7

1.Sweet August Lady  

2.Critique

3.Love to Share

#3 SWEET AUGUST LADY has a win & a placing in the only two attempts in going from one turn to two ( with the score coming right here ), and Brown is a perfect 3 for 3 when giving his locally based mid level rurfers this kind of stretchout ( ITM last ) w/the winners paying a chalky $4, $4 & $5. #5 CRITIQUE drops down 25% for today's second off the break try while ( presumably ) catching firm ground for the first time. #9 LOVE TO SHARE was visually impressive when besting nine others over at The Meadowlands on September 21st, and on the whole, has some nice running lines on the lawn.  OFF TURF: 1-5-3-6-14(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Luz Mimi

2.Nisha

3.Angel at War

Jeremiah has an uncoupled entry in today's feature and they both figure prominently. #6 LUZ MIMI has done her best work over this strip, is a sensational 7:3-4-0 in first off the layoff go rounds, and the aforementioned shotcaller is 4 for 7 with optional dirt stock at Biig Sandy off absences of 38-113 days at 10-1 or less ( $8, $15 & $6 ). #5 NISHA ( a poyfect 2 fer 2 right here ) is a win machine on the dirt ( 5 for 6 ) and hat includes having scored in her last duet when when entered with a tag. Barn is 5-13 with the above categories, substituting the odds with 12-1 or less & days off to 1-3 months ( $6, $4, $6, $6 & $15 ). #1 ANGEL AT WAR has improved over last triad and may stick around for a piece. 

 

Race  9

1.Fast Getaway

2.Not So Quiet Man

3.Sparky

#5 FAST GETAWAY employed a change of tactics when shooting to the top in the lone Saratoga try, and gelding with a win right here is second off the layoff while being backed by a Formulator stat that has Rice at 3-8 with those fitting this criteria off breaks of 45-89 days ( 10-1 or less ). The winners came back $9, $12 & $6, and Irad now takes over. #2 NOT SO QUIET MAN was an honest 3rd in a similar spot about a month and a half ago, and makes sense once again. #11 SPARKY is one for three over these blades & logical enough for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-9-1-3-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 OUTRAGEOUS BET fills the bill, as Contessa is 0-8 with allowance turf sprinters who won their last starts.

 


Belmont        ( Current )    48-293  ( $364.20 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-21  ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:115-293  ( 39.3% )( As of Thursday morning )

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Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% )  Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017