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We closed out the week with a grand salami on Sunday, along with three ice cold exactas of $35, $11 & $26 ( along with two boxes of $60 & $9 ), two cold daily doubles of $39 & $16, a cold pick three of $134 and a cold triple of $194 ( to go along with a $45 box ). 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 10/24

 

Race  1

1.For Kicks

2.Red Curls

3.Twiga

#6 FOR KICKS takes the biggest drop in the game today for 13% Matz, who happens to be 13:4-1-3 when doing such to his turf stayers off breaks of 30-72 days at 16-1 or less. The winners came back $7, $17, $32 & $5, and Johnny V. has done some fine things for this barn. #2 RED CURLS finished second in this race two starts ago, and did such off a layoff -- just like today. Only other L/O try on the sod yielded an adjusted speed figure of 76.8, and it came beneath today's pilot as well. #1 TWIGA is another available for purchase for the first time this afternoon, and although she's been beset by some breaks in the action, we'll include because of the last figaro. ( NOTE: THIS WAS AMENDED AT 11:25 P.M. MONDAY, AS OIGINALLY THEY HAD OUR FIRST AND THIRD CHOICES COUPLED. )  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-2-3.

 

Race  2

1.O Shea Can You See

2.Mohican

3.Malibu Action

#4 O SHEA CAN YOU SEE got his photo taken the last time he was available for purchase, and did so off the shelf as well. Gelding has lots of zip & is 2 for 2 in Elmont. Slight edge. #3 MOHICAN has a second and a 4th in the lone turf to dirt forays, with the former coming over this strip. Pilot from the last tally makes a return engagement. #5 MALIBU ACTION owns a win and two placings in the only three starts with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and may last for a share. 

 

Race  3

1.Romantic Moment 

2.Complicit

3.Lion In Wait

We've unearthed three excellent DRF Formulator stats for today's 3rd, and let's get to 'em directly !  #8 ROMANTIC MOMENT: Shug ( 17% on the norm ) is 12:5-4-1 with second off the break local turf routers at this level who were ITM in the most recent & are 6-1 or lower ( $3.60 ROI ). #7 COMPLICIT: Brown owns a 12:6-4-0 ledger with the same categories listed above ( substituting 5-1 or < in the odds department ). #3 LION IN WAIT: Cox ( Dig it ) is a crisp 13 fer 40 with runners fitting this criteria who scored 13-40 days ago & are 6-1 or beneath ( $3.02 ROI ).  OFF TURF: 7-5-4(MTO)-6-8

 

Race  4 

1.Rossby

2.Rose of Dublin

3.Alphabetting

#1 ROSSBY will be no worse than second in this spot. Miss moves in from the 11 slot to the wood today, and does so after earning ( for this grouping ) a decent number last time out. $8,000 auction purchase takes an understandable drop today and doesn't necessarily need to send to win here. #4 ROSE OF  DUBLIN will be the only exacta saver we'll be using with the above, as she's another one sliding down the ladder, while showing a couple of nice fast track speed figs prior to the flop on the slop. #6 ALPHABETTING completes our troika of selections finding themselves at an all time low. 

 

Race  5

1.Niko's Dream 

2.Itsakeyper

3.Caralicious

#10 NIKO'S DREAM rallied nicely to close out the superfecta two spots behind a next out winner when starting things out up in Togatown, and did so despite an awkward onset and fanning way out at the top of the lane. Barclay not known for his prowess with first timers, so we're expecting some improvement here. #8 ITSAKEYPER got juice for the first time in last, and improved appreciably for Albertrani, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss i excluding. #7 CARALICIOUS finished just behind the above in last, and will be overlooked a bit parimutually, given the low percentage connections.  OFF TURF: 2-10-11-13(MTO)-9

 

Race  6 

1.Mobridge 

2.Cloontia

3.Blue Pigeon

In the five starts #5 MOBRIDGE had prior to his last ( in races at a mile or a mile and a 1/16th ), he cut opening quarter fractions of 24 & 3, 24 & 3, 23 & 2, 24 & 3 and 24 & 2, while never being farther back than 3 1/2 lengths...In his last start, he was brought back to last ( nearly 6 lengths back ), running an opening quarter of 25 & 2.  In those aforementioned five starts, Mobridge cut half miles of 48 & 1, 48 & 2, 46 & 4, 48 & 2, 48 & 3, while never being farther back than 2 lengths...In his last start, he was 6 lengths back while "tucked inside", running a half in 50 flat. Other comments by the chartmaker read "...swung three wide..."...paused briefly"..."...angled to the inside"..."...placed to coaxing"..."...got forced to pause"..."...stymied"..."...in traffic...""...showing interest under his own power through to the end." Safe to say that runner who was a neck shy of having won 4 of 5 prior to that day didn't show his best stuff. Well---we've been waiting for today. Play of the meet. #3 CLOONTIA essentially galloped around the track in an off the turf event on 9/20, and that was much to the chagrin of those who backed him down to 2-1 that day. Other than that, five year old owns a 2 for 6 mark right here ( 3-17 otherwise ), and should be right here in deep stretch. #2 BLUE PIGEON has done his best work at the trip and could spice things up at a price.  OFF TURF: 5-8(MTO)-7-9-11

 

Race  7

1.Blonde Moment

2.Alisio

3.Clara Allen

#7 BLONDE MOMENT got smacked around pretty soundly at the onset of the bow, and ended up immolating some baccala at 4-1 that day. There have been two fine works since, and Rosario enticed to ride runner who is a half to a 1 for 4 dirt sprinter that banked 34K. Mild choice in a wide, wide, open event. #7 ALISIO and #1 CLARA ALLEN ( a character in 'Lonesome Dove' ) are two halves of the uncoupled McL. entry, and said conditioner is ( from a limited sampling ) 2 for 4 with those fitting each of these exact characteristics ( any jock, < 8-1 ). Oddly enough, they've been kept apart in ALL of their morning moves, with the former owning a bullet gate breeze, which persuades us to lean that way. 

 

Race  8 

1.Hallie Belle

2.Penjade ( Fr )

3.Dolce Lili

#4 HALLIE BELLE seems to be the class of the field, and Stidham owns a tidy 3 for 6 mark when going 1X to 2X with his optional turfers off breaks of 26-52 days, and four year old has won her last two outside of stakes company. #1 PENJADE (FR) owns a win & a placing from as many 2nd off the shelf tries, & is 4:1-2-0-1 over this course. #6 DOLCE LILI takes the obligatory hike in class after the 9/29 tally, and the career best numero came in a second off the shelf attempt. Sensible.  OFF TURF: 4-6-5-2-3

 

Race  9 

1.Unlockthepotential

2.Source Control

3.Mad Munnys

#10 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL is a $220,000 auction purchase who's available for the 1st time today ( 40G ), and is but 3/4's of a length shy of a 2 for 2 mark when going short on the sod. Barn happens to be 3 for 4 when putting them up for sale like this in a mid level turf dash ( 25-45 days ), with the winners coming back $5, $6 & $9, and we'll give this one the nod in the nitecap. #9 SOURCE CONTROL is a nibbler by rote, but Rudy Rod nearly doubles his regular batting average with those of this ilk who missed the baccala 34-68 days back, as he's 4-11 with 'em ( $12, $7, $12 & $11 ). #2 MAD MUNNYS has  improved by about a 20% average both times he went brown to green, and picks up Stone.  OFF TURF: 5-8(MTO)-3-9-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  


Belmont        ( Current )    46-284  ( $351.60 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-21  ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:113-284  ( 39.8% ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017