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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #6 Competitionofideas


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Belmont Park - 10/21

 

Race  1

1.Union Wise

2.Moneigh Moproblems

3.Somebody

#1 UNION WISE was claimed out of a disappointing effort, and after being kept in jail, is dropped in class by 25% by Ryerson. Grey chap is poorly bred for the green, so you can feel free to draw a line through the last, and that being said, he split the field in the dirt debut, and has a big shot if able to revert to that effort. #3 MONEIGH MOPROBLEMS was a lively and well clear runner up in a nearly identical spot here on 9/7, and Weaver is a dreamy 4 for 9 with maiden claiming dirt dashers off breaks of 29-59 days ( 3-1 or less ). Major factor. #7 SOMEBODY finished 3rd versus slightly weaker in the most recent, and there was an eight length gap between him and the fourth place finisher that day. Gelding is 3rd off the layoff and should be right there on the line.

 

Race  2

1.Aspen Summer

2.Dig Deeper

3.Merger Arbitrage

#4 ASPEN SUMMER was a daylight clear runner up at first asking, but unfortunately, that asking occurred more than 8 months ago. The good news tho is that the winner from that day came back to get the job done next time, and this one's pedigree tells us that another solid effort is within reach. Mott a saucy 5 fer 11 ( $3.70 ROI ) with second time starters under these conditions at 4-1 or undah. #6 DIG DEEPER has gone 73-75-70 in the three turf starts to date and showed behind a next out winner in the most recent. #1A MERGER ARBITRAGE has hit the board in her last quartet and should be right there once again.  OFF TURF: 4-6-2-1A-9

 

Race  3

1.Sanavi

2.Point to Remember

3.Zing Zang

#4 SANAVI comes in today riding a 5:2-2-1 streak, with the recent score coming over this strip, and both of those wins coming beneath today's pilot. 'Miah Englehart ( 25% day to day ) is a tidy 4-9 with 3rd off the layoff allowance dirt stock who scored in their last & are > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1. #3 POINT TO REMEMBER has done very little wrong this far in his career, and is reunited with the jock who steered him home for his last win. Double J ( 10% ) is 3 for 9 w/allowance dirt stock who got the job done less than four dozen days ago that are beneath the 4-1 watermark. #6 ZING ZANG has a touch of back class and goes green to brown for the first time this afternoon.  NOTE: AS OF 12:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Saloon Girl

2.Mike's Girl

3.Gunboat Diplomacy

#8 SALOON GIRL was second all the way around the track in the overture, and is switched over to the turf today by W.W., who is 5:3-0-1-1 when doing such to his 2nd timers in local dashes at this level ( 8-1 or less ). The winners paid $4, $4 & $5, and Dylan ( who was given a shot by Ward when starting out ) has done well for this outfit. #5 MIKE'S GIRL loses the hood after running up the track in an off the turf event last time out, and is an obvious factor if able to get back to any of the turf outings. #10 GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY was in the rear with the gear when starting things out 18 days ago and has the wonder drug added today while going over the green stuff for the first time; chance for improvement.  OFF TURF: 6-9-11-8-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:59, IF THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-12-16(MTO).

 

Race  5

1.Awsum Roar

2.Blue Atlas

3.Banty's Girl

#8 AWSUM ROAR finished third in her only start with a "For Sale" sign affixed to her rump and owns a few decent running lines for today's 3rd off the L/O attempt. Timid selection in a race where we really don't have much of a read, so tread lightly. #2 BLUE ATLAS is 2 for 2 at this trip & over this strip, and improved in the adjusted speed figure department in the latter of that duet. Note that Javy was aboard for both wins. #6 BANTY'S GIRL is 1 for 6 here ( 1 for 15 elsewhere ) and closed out the exacta in a near identical spot nine weeks ago. You're getting an overlay here if you can see your way clear of the last two.  OFF TURF: 1-6-8-5-4

 

Race  6 

1.Tiz Priceless

2.Third Card Down

3.Dubb Entry

#9 TIZ PRICELESS was banging around a bit in the last when finishing third against similar, and runner who always seems to be in the thick of things could surprise a bit at 8-1. #10 THIRD CARD DOWN figured it all out at 15-1 when getting the diploma in last, and although the number came back extremely light, the turf breeding is honest enough, and this one may continue the forward progression with today's surface switch. Both the #1 SAMARA & the #1A JAZZY JUDER are solid enough to incorporate into all your action -- both vertical and horizontal.  OFF TURF: 1-7-6-9-2  NOTE: AS OF 2:25 WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  7

1.Carmine's Honor

2.Bigsouljoel

3.Altesino

#4 CARMINE'S HONOR has become a different animal in the second half of the year, and brings in tow a 1-2-1 mark in his last quartet over a glib surface for Contessa, who's far surpassing his normative 10% batting average of late. Gelding obviously digs it here & is a logical 1-2-3 playah for all you who are into the Grand Slam. #8 BIGSOULJOEL was floated outside in the last, but still displayed enough grittiness to snag the sheepskin nonetheless. That was his only go round over this surface & merits inclusion right back. #3 ALTESINO is up for sale for the 1st time today.  NOTE: AS OF 1:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Rymska ( Fr )

2.New Money Honey

3.Indian Blessing ( GB )

#1 RYMSKA (FR) broke some hearts when losing by just a honker in the comebacker, but we can be a bit forgiving, cant's we? After all, she was away a long while. Gal scored in the only "second off the layoff" attempt, and while drawing snugly -- will have to find a seam late in this extremely competitive field. #3 NEW MONEY HONEY is a perfect 4 for 4 on this course, and do we really need to type anything else after that? #4 INDIAN BLESSING (GB) has closed out the tri in both starts since arriving in the States, and who are we to rock the the boat of "three straight threes" ?  OFF TURF: 4-6-3-9-5

 

Race  9 

1.Ferdinanda

2.Filifila

3.Best Performance

On our first draft of this race we were able to shave off six of the ten signed on, and of the remaining quartet, two have excellent trainer stats, so let's get right to 'em. #4 FERDINANDA fanned seven wide in a nine horse affair towards the end of September, and ended up just missing by a head versus this type. There's a jockey upgrade in store today, and Tagg is it with Elmont based All. turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 15-29 days back & are below 8-1 today, as he hasn't lost in three such starts ( $4, $9 & $4 ). #3 FILFILA has been gone nearly the entire length of a calendar, but B26% shotcaller is a juicy 6 fer 8 with those fitting ALL this exact criteria off hibernations of 240-400 days, w/the winners coming back $5, $8, $6, $3, $13 & $9. #8 BEST PERFORMANCE has been in the deep end of the pool a few times and gets eye cups for the 1st time.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 COMPETITION OF IDEAS will be overbet off the "good" turf outing, and the firm figs are mediocre at best; pay attention to the updates, as we may change our minds if the turf is softish.  OFF TURF: 6-4-9-2-3  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Belmont        ( Current )    42-275  ( $319.20 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-21  ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:109-275  ( 39.6% )( As of Sunday morning )   

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Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017