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Just a reminder that if you want today's selections & analysis for the Grade 1 Grand National from Far Hills, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 My Boy Tate


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Belmont Park - 10/20 - New York Showcase Day

 

Race  1

1.Crack Shot

2.Le Gros Bill

3.Wacky Pal

#4 CRACK SHOT has a bullet gate breeze on the docket for today's career starter ( actually, he has nearly two of 'em ) which always merits inclusion, and January foal went for 14.7 times the stud fee at auction. Turf pedigree is okay, and there ain't much signed on. #10 LE GROS BILL is another starting things out today, and has decent breeding for the sod. Price addition. #6 WACKY PAL was purchased for $67,000 at Ocala earlier this year, and that's a nifty pinhooking job, as fella was bred for just a grand. Rahy in the family tree tells us that the green shouldn't be much of an issue.  OFF TURF: 1-3(MTO)-5-9-12

 

Race  2

1.Holiday Disguise

2.Pauseforthecause

3.Satisfy

#4 HOLIDAY DISGUISE was a solid and well clear runner up in the lone "second off the L/O" try, and has an affinity for this strip, as attested by the 3 for 6 local mark. 23% Rice is twice as nice with 2nd off the break ungraded dirt stock at 6-1 or less, as she's a whopping 11 for 22 in that regards ( $3.14 ROI ), and Rosario returns, despite the poor effort in the Gallant Bloom. #1 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE shoots for the hat trick today, and both of the prior wins were career best performances. McL. ( 20% day to day ) is 8:3-1-3 with Elmont based ungraded dirt stock coming in off a win ( $3, $3 & $17 ), and this one deserves a shot at 8-1. #7 SATISFY has won four of five, and what the hell's wrong with that?

 

Race  3

1.Black Tide

2.Offering Plan

3.Kharafa

#9 BLACK TIDE blew up the tote board when going coast to coast like butter and toast in a nearly identical spot on September 23rd, and shrewd claim is two for five over this course. $25,000 purchase has earned $280,000 since then, and is a threat to go all the way once again. #11 OFFERING PLAN is clearly the class of this field, has hit the board in 6 of 7 here, 8 of 9 at the trip, and two of three when breaking from the outermost two slots; deserving favorite. #4 KHARAFA ( who turns 10 in a few months ) is a salty sort who's danced a boatload of dances, and may be rolling late for a share.  OFF TURF: 11-7-5(MTO)-1(MTO)-8

 

Race  4 

1.Candid Desire

2.Gold for the King

3.Runaway Lute

#7 CANDID DESIRE has been claimed in three straight starts, which is a mite bizarre, given that this one had only hit the board in 2 of 9 prior to that. That being said, the recent purchaser is none other than Jason "The Miracle Man" Servis, who happens to be 2 for 3 when spotting a recent claimee in an ungraded sprint ( $42 & $6 ). Mild choice. #7 GOLD FOR THE KING is 1 for 3 off the shelf & 2 fer 5 at the dist.; nice bullet breeze on 10/4 points out this one's readiness for the return. #9 RUNAWAY LUTE hasn't been seen since Independence Day, but has fired off three bullets since the last and totally digs it here.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MY BOY TATE

 

Race  5

1.War Canoe

2.Fifty Five

3.Lovely La La

#2 WAR CANOE has only beaten three home in as many starts, but was wide in the last two while being overmatched in the Diana. Workhorse who was snagged for 16 large early last year and has put about $240K in the coffers since then, has hit the board in all three tries over firm ground here and likes to run down on the inside, as attested by the 10:2-1-4-1 mark when doing such from the innermost three slots. Could light up the board here. #7 FIFTY FIVE has been a part of the action in 14 of 15 lifetime starts, and that factoid unto itself merits inclusion here. No need to espouse further with this one; majah playah. #8 LOVELY LA LA ( second half of the uncoupled entry with 'Five ) is 2 for 2 on the verde, and although the numbers came back a bit lowish, we'd be remiss in excluding a Brown/Irad turf runners at 15-1.  OFF TURF: 4-8-6-5-7

 

Race  6 

1.Lost in Manhattan

2.Exchange Fever

3.Qian B C

#11 LOST IN MANHATTAN has hung up a couple'a nice numeros in both turf outings, and has the hood added today, which could help a little bit from today's outside slot. Meeeeeekest of selections. #2 EXCHANGE FEVER was extremely gutsy when falling less than two lengths short first time outta the box, and he was promptly rewarded with --- a snippage of the worst kind !  Lawdy, imagine if he finished 8th ?? Anyhoo, Weaver has brought this one back slowly ( 54 & 2, 52 & 4, 50 flat ) but steadily in the mornings, and we while we see a sharp effort coming up today, we'll leave beneath in case they're giving him one. #5 QIAN B C went from a 37 to a 52 Beyer from the first turf start to the second, but essentially circled the track in an off the turfer here on 9/29, and could be dangerous going over the blades with the blinks for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 2-1-8-14(MTO)-11  NOTE: AS OF 12:53, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 2-14(MTO)-10

 

Race  7

1.L.A. Page

2.Time Warp

3.Cartwheelin Lulu

#6 L.A. PAGE went from zero to hero right outta the box here three dozen days ago, and if I know 'Miah, coming from the back of the pack with a front end rider like Cancel wasn't exactly in the blueprints that day, but the fact that they got the job done ( as well as shocking the connections by winning with a tag ) makes this one all the more alluring. Barn doubles their normative win rate with second time ungraded dirt starters who got the diploma in last ( $11, $16, $7 & $8 ), and this is the higher half of the uncoupled entry with our 3rd selection. #5 TIME WARP is second time Lasix & goes 2X to 1X this afternoon, and just look at the comment lines for this one: "Brushed gate"..."Bumped break"..."Broke through gate"..."Bumped & bothered". --- BIG shot with a clean sojourn. #7 CARTWHEELIN LULU is an undefeated January foal who improved by about 15% from the first start to the next, and mustn't be left off your tickets.

 

Race  8 

1.Strive for a Cure

2.Dugout

3.Market Bubble

#3 STRIVE FOR A CURE was visually impressive when riding the pine to snag the sheepskin first time out a month back, and although the number came back a bit lowish, the asterisk next to the Tomlinson at the distance tells us that the ceiling is still unknown. Connections eschew any weight allowance they would ordinarily get with the bug in today's stake, and it's be interesting to see that the kid sacrifices a full card of mounts down at Laurel for this. Oh yeah -- 18% clan is 7:3-2-0 with second timers on the dirt who broke their maidens < 2 months back & are beneath 30-1 today ( $23, $8 & $5 ). The more we type, the more we like. #6 DUGOUT has done nothing wrong to date, and Rivelli owns a 5 for 12 mark with those of this ilk who tallied a win less than six weeks back & are beneath the 5-1 watermark today. As we watch a "Law and Order" marathon while typing this on Thursday night, we notice that the #7 MARKET BUBBLE was a well beaten also ran behind "Order and Law" in the first try vs. winners, but we'll give him another shot on the sand.

 

Race  9 

1.Land Mine

2.English Soul

3.Tiznow's Smile

#11 LAND MINE will likely be going off at the highest odds in her last seven starts today, and being this one is 3-2-0-1 during that stretch, we'd say she's a bit of an overlay today. Saez grabs the helm now, and he got the job done the only time when guiding this one on the dirt. Slightest of margins. #7 ENGLISH SOUL has been a gem of consistency on the sand ( 6:4-1-1 ) and has done well off the bench as well. We like the versatility shown in last when rating a bit. #8 TIZNOW'S SMILE has lit up the totalizator board in the last duet to the tune of $43 & $68 and will be going postward at double digit odds once again with Joel returning from the penultimate score.  NOTE: AS OF 12:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Evaluator

2.Pat On the Back

3.Wine Not

Feature race on this $1.95 million card is the Empire Classic, and it's a competitive affair fer sure...  #6 EVALUATOR got up by a honker right here nearly a year ago to the day ( at 40 clams, no less ), in his only start over a glib local surface, and colt has a pair of runner up finishes from three starts of a hiatus. You're getting Johnny V. at a nice #. #10 PAT ON THE BACK has never missed the board in seven starts at this locale, has crashed the exacta in four straight over a fast track, and is a legitimate favorite today. #7 WINE NOT has done his best work over this oval and closes out the top three.

 

Race  11

1.Hit a Provisional

2.Dream Passage

3.Mama Mary

#10 HIT A PROVISIONAL lost by just a neck when rallying from eight wide in the debut, but the adjusted figure of 70.8 from that afternoon most definitely fits with these, and after being given a brief freshening, came back with a gutsy win when changing tactics while being more forwardly placed. The Beyer from that day was pretty low, but the track variant of 34 says that it was playing ridiculously slow, so take it with a grain of salt. We'll bite at 12-1 w/the transition back to the blades. #6 DREAM PASSAGE has hit the board in eight straight, and Cox ( from a tidy sampling ) is 4:3-1-0 with allowance turf dashers who were 1-2-3 19-34 days ago & are > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1 ( $5, $5 & $6 ). Beat her to get the lioness' share. #8 MAMA MARY is another who fared well in the lone turf attempt and has done little to dissuade us from seeing her crashing the super...if not the tri.  OFF TURF: 7-8-9-5-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 2:54, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-16(MTO)-7

 


Belmont        ( Current )    41-264  ( $307.40 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-20  ( 35.0% )  Favorites Win %:104-264  ( 39.4% )( As of Saturday morning )  

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Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-51     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 22-51    ( 43.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-339   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 112-339  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9419 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3447-9513 ( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9987 ($17,177.10) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017