KevinCoxItem

Goose egg for us here yesterday, so let's try to make amends today, shall we?

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  NOTE: AS OF 1:05, THE #3 WILL BE OUR BEATABLE FAVORITE IN RACE 1.


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Belmont Park - 10/7

 

Race  1

1.Eliav

2.T. Jay's Last Call

3.Three Outlaws

#1A ELIAV crushes. #6 T. JAY'S LAST CALL managed to go six wide in a field with that many first time out of the box, and sheds some weight today while leaving the blinkers on the backside. Chance for improvement. #5 THREE OUTLAWS improved a touch from the first start to the second and drops a bit once again.  NOTE: AS OF 1:05, THE #3 WILL BE OUR BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  2

1.Naples Legacy

2.Miss Jen

3.Classic Lady

#9 NAPLES LEGACY hasn't shown much in either start on the sod, but in all fairness, those were run over softer ground, and the sharp current ( dirt ) form is enough to tell us that this one could be a big factor if he takes to a a firm course. #6 MISS JEN lost by less than three the last time she was here and may sneak in the exotics. #10 CLASSIC LADY barely beat home the chase ambulance in an off the turf event 23 days ago, but the numbers were heading in the right direction prior to that and is an obvious factor if able to get back to that penultimate start.  OFF TURF: 3-4-8-9-1

 

Race  3

1.Freeload

2.Clyde's Runner

3.Siena Magic

#4 FREELOAD has hit the board in 4 of his last 5 turf dashes, and is hiked up in class after a solid performance down at the Shore. The show horse from that day came back to win, improving his Beyer from 39 to 54. Mild choice. #6 CLYDE'S RUNNER can be forgiven the last, as he's not particularly well bred for dirt, and the two prior figures earned ( at a higher level ) merit respect. Castellano returns, and note that he was aboard for the crisp debut. #2 SIENA MAGIC takes the biggest drop in the game today after finishing in the back half of the field in the Saratoga overture, but has worked well since, and Johnny sticks around. 7-2-8-4-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Three Eighty Eight

2.Emerald Quality

3.Eight Minute Ellie

#2 THREE EIGHTY EIGHT was protected against the claim in the first start off an elongated break, and ended up running an honest second in a nearly identical spot that day. Mare is quite the nibbler ( 21:1-9-3 ) but has done decent work here and rates the meeeeeekest of selections. #5 EMERALD QUALITY has beaten just three home in his last quartet of outings but finds herself at her lowest level to date and goes turf to dirt. #6 EIGHT MINUTE ELLIE is dropped back down to the level claimed today and may perk up a bit.

 

Race  5

1.Golconda

2.Good Old Boy

3.Joe's Smokin Gun

#11 GOLCONDA was a bit awkward in last late in the game, but still came along nicely to grab 10% of the purse at nearly 50-1. ( Presumably ) catches firm ground for just the second time today. #2 GOOD OLD BOY bested more than half the field in a slightly troubled sojourn 45 days ago, and may appreciate today's initial stretchout. #7 JOE'S SMOKIN GUN closed out the exacta in both tries over this course and gets a weight break with a decent bug assigned.  OFF TURF: 2-6-12(MTO)-5-8

 

Race  6 

1.Bizzee Channel

2.Backtohisroots

3.Fayette Warrior

#5 BIZZEE CHANNEL is a versatile sort who has crashed the party in both starts to date ( turf & poly ), and sheds weight today while having blinks added. Don't worry about this one being a maiden, as that's not always highly relevant in these two year old stakes races. Cross entered at Keeneland today, so check the changes. #9 BACKTOHISROOTS showed zilch when ambitiously spotted after the claim in The Hopeful, and is now switched over to the sod by Terranova, and why the hell not, given the two decent works over the stuff. There's really not much in the family tree in regards to the green stuff, but sometimes speed can be enough, and this one displayed some in the maiden breaker. Price play. #12 FAYETTE WARRIOR improved appreciably from the first start to the maiden breaking secondary try, and this one gets a jockey upgrade today while once again drawing towards the outside.  OFF TURF: 6-3-2-7-8

 

Race  7

1.Take Me to Hardoon

2.Brucia La Terra

3.Cassies Dreamer

Grade One Frizette stakes on tap here, and for some pedigree history on the famed equine, feel free to go to this website http://www.americanclassicpedigrees.com/frizette.html . #3 TAKE ME TO HARDOON ( owned by good guy Al Gold ) is a mite light from a speed figure perspective, but sometimes these babies can improve by leaps and bounds, and the 368 Tomlinson for the trip tells us there's ample room for improvement. Runner up from that afternoon came back to win a $112K stakes at the Lakes next time out, and we'll be hoping for a nice pocket trip today. #1 BRUCIA LA TERRA won right out the box for Barclay up north, and as he's not really known for such, deserves your attention just because of such. Dylan a capable replacement for Franco, and there's been a bullet breeze over this oval since then. #7 CASSIES DREAMER was compelled to employ a different change of tactics in the Spinaway, when banging into the staring apparatus at the onset, and nearly shocked the world when losing by just over two at 68-1 that day. This one may prove to be a wonderful claim for Mr. Tagg, who now knows that he doesn't necessarily have to have this one forwardly placed. Big shot. 

 

Race  8 

1.Fourstar Crook

2.Holy Helena

3.Lady Montdore

#7 FOURSTAR CROOK has a fantastic 18:11-4-1 lifetime mark, is a near perfect 4 for 5 right here, and Brown knocks it out of the park with his locally based graded turf stayers who hit the board 42-76 days ago ( 5-2 or less ), as he's 19:10-4-3-2 in that area ( $2.86 return on investment ). #3 HOLY HELENA is another with a sexy "declining" career mark ( 11:6-2-1 ) and won her only off the layoff try, and did it over this oval as well; puncher's chance. #2 LADY MONTDORE has won both starts in the States, and that's kinda hard to ignore.  OFF TURF: 2-7-3-4-1

 

Race  9 

1.Lisbon

2.Highway Flyer

3.Winning Factor

Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #7 LISBON ( perhaps a "Casablanca" reference ? ) here, as there was a scintillating gate move at Keeneland back in June, and it's been surrounded by a collection of more mundane morning moves. January foal has a maturity advantage over just about the entire field, and not only was the paternal grandsire 2 for 4 over the blades, but the other grandpappy won both his starts on the poly ( which can translate into turf success with some runners ). #11 HIGHWAY FLYER is extremely well bred for this kind of deal, ( dropped by Aviate, who did nicely on the grass, routes, banking over 173G, and has an excellent damsire as well ) and brings in tow a couple of decent works. #3 WINNING FACTOR finished 2nd in the lone turf dash and may hang on for a piece.  OFF TURF: 1-7-6-9-12  NOTE: AS OF 3:56. DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN OVER A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-9-2.

 

Belmont        ( Current )    25-190 ( $186.40 )    Beatable Favorites:   6-15  ( 40.0% )  Favorites Win %: 81-190  ( 42.6% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-49     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-49    ( 42.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9417 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9511( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9985 ($17,177.10)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017