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Just a reminder that if you'd like today's analysis of the Grade One Shadwell Turf Mile from Keeneland, all you have to do is go back one page. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 North Dakota  Race 3 - #9 I Am Spartacus  Race 5 - #2 Satisfy


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Belmont Park - 10/6

 

Race  1

1.Starlite Mission

2.Out of Orbit

3.Miss Sizzle

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #2 STARLITE MISSION has put together a nice triad of outings both here and upstate, and also owns a nice 3:1-2-0 mark locally. Sensible selection. #6 OUT OF ORBIT is another who also owns some sharp current form while having a fondness for this surface. The difference between the top two is just by a hair, so you can go either way. #1 MISS SIZZLE has been beset by a few layoff lines, but has won two of his last three and the pre-layoff pilot returns, which we always like to see.  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.War Treaty

2.Tintoretto ( Ger )

3.Ian Glass

On our first draft of this race we were able to shave off five of the twelve signed on, and that entire grouping is backed by ohfer trainer stats. That being the case, let's wing it a little bit. Bill Mott ain't really known for his prowess with firsters, but #4 WAR TREATY had lovely back to back breezes in August, and while he's been working steadily since then, none of them have set the world on fire. Why? Perhaps they know they have a good one here and are just building up some stamina. Turf pedigree is definitely there, and $30,000 bred animal went for $550,000 at Keeneland a year ago. #9 TINTORETTO (GER) has been faring okay in the A.M.'s, and they don't have many dirt races over in Germany, so you have to figure that this one'll take to the surface just fine. #8 IAN GLASS showed little in the bow, but may perk up with the addition of blinkers today.  OFF TURF: 6(MTO)-11-12-5-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 NORTH DAKOTA doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  3

1.Quick Charge

2.Bettor Bank On It

3.Rouxhere

We are all over the #3 QUICK CHARGE in this spot. January bred bested half the field first time out, but only lost by a bit over two that day, and as the dirt breeding is appreciably better than the bloodlines for the sod, we're expecting substantial improvement today, especially with Franco taking over. Dam was 2 for 5 in dirt sprints ( 51K ), paternal granddam was 1 for 3 doing the same, and while we'll be utilizing our next two selections as exacta savers -- this is our play of the meet. #4 BETTOR BANK ON IT regressed a bit from the first start to the second, but we always afford runners a 2nd bite at the apple over a particular surface or distance. #8 ROUXHERE went for 8X the stud fee at auction and has a couple'a nice morning moves for today's overture; will need to break alertly just in case our BEATABLE FAVORITE, the #9 I AM SPARTACUS veers sharply to the left at the start.

 

Race  4 

1.Classic Covey

2.Bird's Eye View

3.Breaking the Rules

#3 CLASSIC COVEY lost by only a neck in a nearly identical spot up in the Adirondacks, and did so despite going nine wide in a ten horse field. Should work out a cozier journey today. #1 BIRD'S EYE VIEW is but a half length shy of a 2 for 3 record over this course and got the job done the only time he went from one turn to two. Should be forwardly placed today. #2 BREAKING THE RULES hung up a carer best numero when transitioned to the sod, and the monstrous turf pedigree tells us it was no aberration. Be forewarned, however, that the blinks were in fact added that day, and sometimes an animla can regress in the second start after an equipment or medication change.  OFF TURF: 3-2-5-4-7

 

Race  5

1.Piedi Bianchi

2.Big Birthday

3.Wisconsin Night

There are three solid DRF Formulator stats in play for today's fifth race, so let's get right to 'em in no frills fashion... #5 PIEDI BIANCHI loses the eye cups for the first time today, and The Toddster is a tidy but poyfect 3 for 3 when doing such to his locally based allowance dirt stock off breaks of four dozen days or less ( < 8-1 ). #3 BIG BIRTHDAY ( What? Did we say October 28th? ) will be led over by an hombre who is a jazzy 10:7-1-1-1 with Belmont runners of this ilk who got the diploma 32-36 days back & are 5-1 or undah ( $4.38 ROI ). #4 WISCONSIN NIGHT: Hennig is on the Mark with allowance dirt runners at Big Sandy between the odds of 3-2 and 9-2 ( 45 days or lower ) w/a return on investment of $4.06 in that regards.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SATISFY: Mott owns an 0-9 mark with allowance dirt dashers in Elmont won got their photos taken less than 50 days ago.

 

Race  6 

1.Honey Parade

2.Miss Leah Angel ( GB )

3.Lady Grace ( AE )

#11 HONEY PARADE was a bit awkward at the onset of the debut, but zipped to the top and gamely held on for second. The turf bloodlines are okay and we like that Lasix is still out of the mix. Mild edge in a race we don't really have a good feel on. #2 MISS LEAH ANGEL (GB) catches firm ground for the first time today and gets off the rail a bit. 369 Tomlinson figure for the grass says this one deserves another shot. #14 LADY GRACE (AE) is on the outside looking in, but expensive runner is bred extremely well for this deal and Jose takes over.  OFF TURF: 10-3-6-11-16(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 3:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Pocket Change

2.Pure Sensation

3.Disco Partner

#7 POCKET CHANGE has a lot of speed, is 2 for 3 in turf sprints over firm ground, and is an extremely meek selection in a wide open stakes. #5 POCKET CHANGE and #1 DISCO PARTNER ( an uncoupled entry ) are both backed by identical 3 for 4 trainer stats in all pertinent categories and are extremely consistent sorts who deserve a lot of respect. I couldn't fault anyone making excuses for either.  OFF TURF: 2-6-7-5-8

 

Race  8 

1.Farrell

2.Dreamcall

3.Teresa Z

Beldame Invitational on tap here, and for some history on this event ( won by the great Go For Wand ), please go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beldame_Stakes . As for the race itself, we ain't off the FARRELL bandwagon yet ! The truth of the matter is, is that this one really doesn't like to be in a tussle. That being said, filly draws outside of the other two speeds today, and the #8 may just be able to rate a little bit before my boy Channing pounces on the turn. Gal is 2 for 4 going one turn and 8:4-1-1 when starting from the outermost three slots. Mucho things to like. #1 DREAMCALL is pretty light from a speed figure aspect, but won her only start when starting from the pine, and Rosario climbs aboard for the first time. #2 TERESA Z has improved over her last quartet and is 1 for 3 off the bench. 

 

Race  9 

1.Ride a Comet

2.Raging Bull ( Fr )

3.Prioritize

#8 RIDE A COMET is 3 for 3 over firm ground ( 80-82-92 ), sheds weight off a win ( which we always dig ), and closer has worked well since the last score. Lookin' good. #3 RAGING BULL is a deserving favorite here, but keep in mind that most of the money coming her way will be as a result of her wins on softer ground. Now obviously there's a chance that may be the case today, but if it is, in fact, firm--- then isn't this one a tad overbet, given the comparable ( to others ) running lines over that kind of ground? Leaving in, of course, and are assuaged by the fact that Brown is 16:7-4-2-2 with Belmont turf routers at this level off breaks of 23-47 days ( < 5-2 ). #2 PRIORITIZE may grind out a minor placing today.  OFF TURF: 1-5-2-3-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Endorsed

2.Aurelius Maximus

3.Achilles Warrior

Featured race of the day is the Champagne Stakes for half'a mil, and for your pleasure, we've incorporated Seattle Slew's ( then ) world record win in the 1976 rendition https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUqkPbh_pJM . #1 ENDORSED was extremely gutsy when getting up in time to snag the sheepskin first time out, and McL. is a juicy 5 for 10 with second timers who did just that & are now in a graded dirt event ( $4.63 ROI ). Slight edge in a cool race. #9 AURELIUS MAXIMUS ( a combination of names from 'Gladiator', which we happen to be watching now ) blitzed maidens in an abbreviated field right here 27 days back and could be any kind. #3 ACHILLES WARRIOR ( I could tie this into another Greek war movie right now, but I'm too damn tird at 2:37 A.M. ) overcame a bit of greenness when winning first time out and has fired of a bullet since then. 

 

Race  11

1.Cirque

2.Summer Squeeze

3.Wantagh Queen

#12 CIRQUE showed zilch in the comebacker, but hey, Bob Dunham has learned a thing or two in his half century in the business, and maybe it was just a prep. Gal deserves another shot -- especially with the crisp breeze on Tuesday. #11 SUMMER SQUEEZE went coast to coast like butter and toast back in April, but entered the Horsewitness Protection Program shortly thereafter> Lone turf dash left a lot to be desired, however, it was just the debut, so we'll leave this one in the mix; take a peek in the paddock. #3 WANTAGH QUEEN has been a part of the super in 4 of her last 5 right here, and has done good things at the dx. 8th different jock in her last 9 outings is a good one, and we'll incorporate beneath.  OFF TURF: 9-7-10-12-11

 

Belmont        ( Current )    25-179 ( $186.40 )    Beatable Favorites:   5-12  ( 41.2% )  Favorites Win %: 76-179  ( 42.5% )( As of Saturday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-49     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-49    ( 42.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9417 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9511( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9985 ($17,177.10)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017