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 Just a reminder that if you would like our Grade One analysis of the Acibiades from Keeneland, merely go back one page !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #8 Collective Effort


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Belmont Park - 10/5

 

Race  1

1.Monster Bea

2.Ekhtibaar

3.Souperfast

#2 MONSTER BEA missed by just a sliver at the level just below this 19 days back, and from a speed figure standpoint, this one definitely belongs. That being said, Carlito owns a tidy ( but tiny ) 4:2-1-0 mark with locally based mid level turf stayers returning in less than 38 days ( 10-1 or less ). The winners came back $21 & $12, and gelding will be saving all the ground. #3 EKHTIBAAR has won two of three, and although both were on the slop, the lone turf try waaaaaayyyyyy back when yielded an adjusted Beyer of 96.5 ( without Lasix ), and this one finds himself at his lowest level to date; Brown 7:3-1-1 with runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 49-79 days ( $3, $3 & $9 ). #4 SOUPERFAST has partaken in the tri in 5 of 6 ( on the sod ) and freshly claimed runner enters off a crisp score in a nearly identical spot.  OFF TURF: 2-1(MTO)-3-5-8

 

Race  2

1.Wild Type

2.Hand Rail

3.Retro Street

#8 WILD TYPE has gone a bit backwards from a speed figure standpoint over the last two starts, but Rudy saw fit to plunk down half a C-Note for this one on August 22nd, and there have been a couple of bullet breezes since, Amazing stat of the day: Rodriguez is a perfect 7 for 7 with fresh purchases in maiden claiming dirt deals who were ITM in last. Filly draws ideally, and this is our play of the day. #3 HAND RAIL and #2 RETRO STREET comprise both halves of the uncoupled Derek Ryan entry and are identically backed by 2 for 7 trainer stats in all pertinent categories. The former gets the better rider between the two, and also brings in tow a sensational 467 Tomlinson for this, her 2nd dirt try.

 

Race  3

1.End Play

2.Toughest 'Ombre

3.Blessed Halo

#3 END PLAY is but a half length shy of a clean 3 for 3 mark right here, and lost by only a length in the lone "3rd off the L/O" attempt. In a bit of an anomaly, starts from the inside for the first time in his 21st start. Big upgrade to Franco today. #4 TOUGHEST 'OMBRE ( 1 for 5 here, 2 for 20 elsewhere ) closed out the superfecta in the lone 2X to 1X go-round and may be a bit of an overlay in this abbreviated field. #6 BLESSED HALO appears to be the clear speed of this deal and as that's extremely important with the way the turf has been playing here, we'll leave in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 1A-2-3-4-6

 

Race  4 

1.Aggregate

2.Elizabeth Nicole

3.Nikki's Bad

One of the things we like about using the DRF Formulator platform is that you never know when you'll find a stat that has you scratching your head. On our first draft of this race, we were only able to shave off two of the eight signed on, so we started looking at trainer stats. Robert Reid, the trainer of #2 AGGREGATE, has an interesting one. When it comes to his mid level dirt sprinters at 9-1 or less in the 17-33 day range, he's 11 for 67. Okay, there's nothing wacky about that 17% win rate, as that's this barn's normal batting average. But what is interesting is the fact that with those who were IN the money last time out he's a woeful 1 for 25, and for those who were OUT of the money in last, he's 10 fer 32 ( 21% ) with a positive ROI. Some trainers actually regress with those off big efforts, while others rebound nicely. We'll take a shot with the switch back to Stone, who piloted her to her fastest speed figure to date. #3 ELIZABETH NICOLE has never been entered this cheaply & 10% Contessa is 8 for 38 ( 21% ) with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala 10-20 days ago & are 12-1 or undah. #1A NIKKI'S BAD went all the way in besting slightly weaker over at Philadelphia Park, and only those who thumb their nose at shippers would leave this one out of the mix.

 

Race  5

1.Molly's Party

2.Shak's Hidden Gem

3.Mensa Member

#3 MOLLY'S PARTY has ran ( or is it "run" ? ) into some trouble while being a mite green in both turf starts, but we've always had a fondness for fading sprinters on the initial stretchout, and having some extra time to settle down just may prove to be this one's magic panacea. #7 SHAK'S HIDDEN GEM set most of the fractions but tired late in the game up st the Spa, and can move forward second time routing with that under her girthstrap. #1 MENSA MEMBER ( I can relate ) is a second time brown horse who closed out the exacta first time out under identical circumstances, and we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude.  OFF TURF: 1-7-2-10-3

 

Race  6 

1.Illudere

2.Allured

3.Business Cycle

Really nifty six pack here... #2 ILLUDERE improved appreciably with the addition of blinkers last time out, and while some runners can bounce in the second start after an equipment or medication change, we're assuaged by the fact that Double J ( 20% on the norm ) is 6 for 19 ( 31% ) with Elmont based maiden special weight dirt stock returning in 69 days or less ( $3.20 return on investment ). #4 ALLURED ( one half of the uncoupled Chad Brown entry with our third selection) comes in today off a career best numero and is second off the shelf. #3 BUSINESS CYCLE has started out his working life with a bout of seconditis, but is likely to be slightly overbet once again, so we'll leave beneath today.

 

Race  7

1.Elenzee

2.Blame the Thief

3.Appealing Briefs

#1 ELENZEE was essentially eased when last seen in 'Toga Town, but dirt just ain't this one's game, and as a matter of fact, owns a 5:1-3-0 mark right here ( with the only OTB deal being a length loss in finishing 5th ). Lone win came from the lone try breaking from the pine, and is reunited with Castellano -- his favorite pilot. #3 BLAME THE THIEF bested cheaper in an off the turf event down in Joyzee on 9/9, and is 3rd off the layoff today while switching back to the gramma. #2 APPEALING BRIEFS has missed the superfecta but one time in 16 career outings, and that unto itself merits inclusion in the "unders".  OFF TURF: 8-6-5-1-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 COLLECTIVE EFFORT

 

Race  8 

1.McErin

2.Espresso Caliente

3.Brockmoninoff

#9 MCERIN positively annihilated conditional claimers up at SAR a month ago ( missing the track record by just 2/5th's of a second ), and Servis is a sensational 10:7-1-2 with allowance turf dashers at 9-2 or less, and he owns a whopping $5.73 ROI in that area as well. Wire job. #4 ESPRESSO CALIENTE hasn't set the world on fire in any of his turf outings thus far, but goes short over the stuff for the first time today and gets in extremely light. Price addition. #2 BROCKMONINOFF ( partially named after one of the owners ) has hit the board in each try to date while improving from a Beyer perspective along the way as well.   OFF TURF: 6-7(MTO)-8-9-1

 

Race  9 

1.Youth Gone Wild

2.Sardonyx

3.Frosty Linz

If you can get past the last of #10 YOUTH GONE WILD, then what you have is a runner with an adjusted speed figure of 59.5 in the turf dash just before that, and that figure is even better if you prorate it to her best start over firm ground. Eligible to surprise at a big number. #6 SARDONYX put up a decent # in the lone dirt to turf attempt and has been a part of the super in two of four right here. ( We now that doesn't sound like much, but in this grotesque finale, it means something. ) #3 FROSTY LINZ rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-4-9-12-14(AE)

 

Belmont        ( Current )    23-170 ( $170.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   5-11  ( 45.5% )  Favorites Win %: 73-170  ( 42.9% )( As of Friday morning )

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Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-49     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-49    ( 42.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9417 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9511( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9985 ($17,177.10)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017