KevinCoxItem

 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1 Chamber


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Belmont Park - 9/28

 

Race  1

1.Letthemooseloose

2.Beautiful Buzz

3.Sheplaysthefield

#5 LETTHEMOOSELOOSE ( no relation to "Let the pigeons loose!" ) was spotted decently in the first start off the claim by Papa Englehart, when closing out the tri up at the Lakes, and is now shuttled to Big Sandy while picking up Irad. Barn is a near perfect 7:6-0-1 with 2nd off the layoff/2nd off the purchase mid level dirt dashers ( < 38 days ) at 4-1 or under, and of course, the ROI is healthy. #1 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ showed zilch when hiked up off the claim, and is now dropped $11,000 off the price from two back by Gargan. What that means is that the owner actually loses a couple of grand with a win and a loss of the horse, so you'd have to assume that this one will be fully cranked up. From a limited survey, conditioner is 3 for 3 when dropping second off the snag dashers by 50% or more ( 31 days or less ), and Stone has done very well for this clan. #7 SHEPLAYSTHEFIELD was all out to get up by a honker against cheaper a half'a month ago, and the place horse was four lengths clear of the next, so the win was legit enough. Miss seems to like it here ( 2:1-1-0 and could come along for a slice.

 

Race  2

1.Merger Arbitrage

2.Asticou Trail

3.Dig Deeper

We're gonna blast off with the ol' 3-2-1 triple here...  #3 MERGER ARBITRAGE has really stepped up her game in the last triad, put forth her best effort in a "second off the L/O" attempt, and is thought highly enough to be protected against the claim today after being put up for sale in the last. Brown ( 26% day to day ) bats 39% ( 5-14 ) with Belmont based turf routers in 2nd off the shelf forays at 6-1 or lower ( ITM in last ). The winners came back $7. $7, $12, $4 & $10, and there ain't no world beaters signed on. #2 ASTICOU TRAIL ( a hiking trail in Maine...https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/maine/asticou-trail ) is 3rd off the break for the first time today, and Rosario sticks around, despite the recent flopola. #1 DIG DEEPER has posted figures of 73-75-71 in his troika of turf routes, and must be left in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 3-8-7-6-2

 

Race   3

1.Indian Guide

2.Sir Ballantine

3.Awesome Thought

#1 INDIAN GUIDE ( 6:2-1-1-2 when starting from the innermost two slots ) has recently been transitioned to the Levine barn who owns a 3-9 when going long to short with their Belmont dirt runners at this level off breaks of 49 days or less ( < 14-1 ). The winners came back a robust $20, $19 & $28, and Rosario is now ( amazingly ) the 24th different pilot in this one's 45th start. #2 SIR BALLANTINE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is halved in price today and owns a 2 for 4 mark @ the trip. #3 AWESOME THOUGHT finished 2rd in the lone 2X to 1X attempt, and will be led over by "The Greatest Trainer in the History of Mankind" -- Jorge Navarro, today -- so deserves your respect ( especially with the switch to Castellano ). Barn 3 for 7 when cutting back their mid level dirt stock who won 20-64 days ago.  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Hurricane Sheila

2.Keepshercool

3.Chamber

#4 HURICANE SHEILA has been transferred over to 'Miah from the Linda Rice barn ( what ? ), but hat's fine by us, as said conditioner is 3 for 6 when being handed a runner and spotting them in a dirt dash off a hiatus of 84-250 days ( $7, $11 & $13 ). The last two efforts were honest enough and we'll give this one a slight edge. #2 KEEPSHERCOOL begins her professional career today, and has a bullet gate breeze on the docket -- which always merits inclusion in our eyes. Gal was dropped by a dam who was 1 for 3 in dirt sprints, and was sired by an hombre who was 2 fer 4 doing the same. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: While we definitely feel the #1 CHAMBER has as good a chance as most to win this, we think the 4-5 morning line offering is ridiculous, and will side against at that price.

 

Race   5

1.Mama Mary

2.Promise Me Roses

3.Causin' Trouble

#12 MAMA MARY has shown improved speed with each passing start, and just may be able to employ the killer crossover from today's outside slot. Under normal circumstances, that wouldn't be so relevant on turf, but as the ground is likely to have some give to it, there can be some serious divots being kicked back here. Sharp is just that with mdspwt. dashers on the sod at 7-1 or less ( 20-80 days ), as he's 3 for 10 in that regards, and looking for Saez to start heating up. #7 PROMISE ME ROSES is only a touch worse bred for the green than the brown, and the dirt starts weren't half bad. Numbers have gone up with every start in which the jockey has stayed aboard, and sincerely doubt this one will be 20-1 come post time. #1 CAUSIN' TROUBLE showed nothing in the overture, but may perk up with the addition of blinkers.  OFF TURF: 10-9-5-11-7

 

Race  6 

1.Filly Joel

2.Fangirl

3.Champagne Bliss

Today is the day for #5 FILLY JOEL to be a big shot. Crushes. #2 FANGIRL went at auction for four times the stud fee, owns an exceptionally high 394 Tommy, and has been faring well in the mornings. Sensible addition. #7 CHAMPAGNE BLISS has the hood added for today's initial dirt try, and they were most likely affixed for the last two ( decent ) workouts. Expecting an improvement today.

 

Race  7

1.Pivotal Connection ( GB )

2.Silver Shaker

3.War Cabinet

#6 PIVOTAL CONNECTION (GB) hasn't been seen since just before Christmas, but makes her first start in the States today, and as usual for this type, undergoes a gamut of changes today: Sheds some weight, catches ( hopefully ) firm ground for the first time, and also will be in receipt of the wonder drug. We'll bite at 8-1. #8 SILVER SHAKER exits a race where the top two returned to win, and gets Irad today, who was aboard for a solid placing last fall. #4 WAR CABINET has improved with each start since arriving in out great country, and who knows where the ceiling is for this June foal.  OFF TURF: 1-7-8-5-6

 

Race  8 

1.Fleet Irish

2.Heavy Meddle

3.Sword Fighter

#4 FLEET IRISH came within a length and 3/4's of the hat trick last time out, and is now protected in the first start off the claim by Rice, and why not, as this one is 4;2-2-0 over the strip. This seems like an evenly matched field, so why not take 8-1 on a very logical animal? #9 HEAVY MEDDLE ( 3:0-1-1 off the shelf, 6:1-2-1 locally, and 3:1-0-1 when breaking from the outside ) is backed by a 4 for 12 Mott stat which says Bill is just that with runners fitting this criteria off absences of 3-6 dozen days ( 12-1 or less ). #1 SWORD FIGHTER finished up without a rider in last, as Junior got clobbered by a chunk of turf and was essentially lucky to not be seriously hurt that day. That aside, gelding has done some good work on the dirt and draws snugly.

 

Race  9 

1.Three Perfections

2.Jo's Bold Cat

3.Spring on Curlin

#7 THREE PERFECTIONS is available for purchase for the first time today, and runner closed out the tri in the lone "3rd off the L/O" attempt right here last July. Castellano grabs the helm now, and we'll give this one a tepid nod in the nitecap. #1 JO'S BOLD CAT is a nibblah by rote ( 18:1-5-2 on the green ), but we'll include because you're getting Jersey Joe at double digit odds. #8 SPRING ON CURLIN completes the "Brooklyn area code" triple based on the steady increase in the Beyer dept. as well as the smart maiden breaker.  OFF TURF: 6-10-15(MTO)-7-5

 

Belmont        ( Current )    16-123 ( $102.60 )    Beatable Favorites:    2-7  ( 28.6% )  Favorites Win %: 55-123  ( 44.7% ) ( As of Friday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-48     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-48    ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9416 ($16,333.20) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9510( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9984 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10096( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017