KevinCoxItem

Another onslaught of favorites yesterday ( six of 'em ) keep us at bay, as they're clicking at an absurd 46% for the meet.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #1 Mr Buff


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont Park - 9/27

 

Race  1

1.Gargan entry

2.Stronger

3.Tiz No Bluff

#1 SLOT ( barn 4:2-1-1 when adding blinkers after a claim ) and #1A BLURRED LINE ( finds himself at his lowest level to date while switching to a surface that we feel he's better suited for ) both seem legit in the day's opener. Stone is named on both, so one has to be declared. #4 STRONGER closed out the tri the only time he went from two turns to one and has a second & a fourth the only time he was entered at this level. Sensible "unders" play. #3 TIZ NO BLUFF has partaken in the superfecta over his last octet and is 5:0-2-2 off the shelf. Use in your rollers, as this one has never been put in for this price.

 

Race  2

1.Velvet Trinni

2.Our Whim

3.Blushing Justine

After beating home just five in six starts, #5 VELVET TRINNI was given a bit of a freshening by Parboo, and now returns for her lowest claiming price while picking up a ten pound bug. That last part is extremely relevant in this spot, as there's positively no speed signed on ( our secondary selection is likely to rate ) and we'll be screaming "Wire!!" as soon as the gates open. #8 OUR WHIM totally figures to be a player in this spot, given the recent figures earned, and the fact that 10% Contessa wins at a 24% clip with locally based mid level dirt stock off breaks of 39 days or less ( 5-1 or lower ). There's a positive ROI in that regards, but we have extreme difficulty using a 22:1-10-5 runner on top---especially at short odds. #7 BLUSHING JUSTINE plummets today and has the hood affixed.

 

Race   3

1.Transistor

2.Plainsman

3.Point to Remember

#4 TRANSISTOR more than outran his odds in the Grade 3 at Philadelphia Park when finishing fourth at 86-1, and was dialed in right here with a score two starts prior to that. Rudy Rod is a jazzy 8:5-2-1 when going 2X to 1X w/ dirt dashers at this level ( 23-42 days ) at odds of 33-1 or less ( 1 for 1 in Elmont ). The winners came back $4, $8, $5, $5 & $9, and this one was a sharp runner up in the lone attempt in making this dx. switch. #2 PLAINSMAN is another one cutting back this afternoon, and our namesake ( 27% day to day ) is a whopping 9-20 ( 45% ) when doing such to those who hit the board < 52 days back & are 7-2 or undah ( $2.61 ROI ). #5 POINT TO REMEMBER is 3:1-1-1 since having the wonder drug administered for the 1st time and has fired off a bullet since the maiden breaker.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 MR BUFF seems a bit naked on positive trainer stats, as barn is 0-8 when cutting back dirt stock off a win.

 

Race  4 

1.Tusk

2.Mr Maybe

3.Mills

#7 TUSK was kept in jail after the most recent claim, but nonetheless, is confidently hiked up 25% in class today by new conditioner Handal. Grey gelding is a lively 3 for 8 at the distance ( 1-14 @ other trips ), and 16% shotcaller is 3 for 7 when putting new acquisitions in a turf route off breaks of 21-43 days ( 47-1 or < ). Those winners came back a robust $40, $31 & $7, and encouraged to see Franco hop on. #2 MR MAYBE came along belatedly to best half the field at 20-1 in last, but was 8 wide in a 10 horse field and may fare better being snugly drawn. #4 MILLS is 2 for 5 over this course ( 4 fer 43 at other locales ) and has recently been transferred to a barn with a higher win percentage.  OFF TURF: 7-8(MTO)-1-9(MTO)-2

 

Race  5

1.Bunyan's Axe

2.Wild William

3.Stag of Sylvia

#10 BUNYAN'S AXE posted an adjusted 63.3 when debuting in a turf sprint on my birthday ( hint, hint ) last year, but for some reason was thrown on the dirt next time out, and then a long layoff ensued. The return on the sod left a lot to be desired, and that too, was followed by a break in action. Forget about the off the turf event, and 31% conditioner gives this one another shot over the green stuff. Could forget to stop. #11 WILD WILLIAM has been a different animal since getting the blinkers/Lasix package and must be respected. #6 STAG OF SYLVIA may spice things up underneath.  OFF TURF: 4-11-2-8-12  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DO TO THE THE TRACK BEING "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-13-4.

 

Race  6 

1.Too Fast to Pass

2.No Distortion

3.Wrong BEn

#6 TOO FAST TO PASS sure is an old warhorse, ain't he? 8 1/2 year old takes his 72nd sojourn to the starting gate this afternoon, and has been 1-2-3 in 40 of them. Feel free to place an upwards arrow next to the most recent quartet of this one's outings, as he's been on the upswing of late. 17% shedrow is a crisp 4 for 13 ( 31% ) with first off the claim dirt sprinters who won their last & are 5-1 or less today. Pre-Claim pilot comes back, and we're always fond of that. #5 NO DISTORTION got smacked around a bit in the first start off the claim, but in reality, that start ( turf, which he's not very fond of ) was probably used just to put a "false line" on the page to thwart a purchase for today's 25% dropdown off the price claimed. #1 WRONG BEN is 2 for 2 when beginning from the innermost two slots ( 1-11 from the three hole on out ) and also one his only start at this level. Intriguing at a price.

 

Race  7

1.Bourbon N Rye

2.Ready to Escape

3.Unsullied

#4 BOURBON N RYE went the fade route in the northern career starter two fortnights ago, but Javier sticks around, and this barn is 7:3-2-0 with second time starters under these conditions ( 6-1 or less ). The winners came back $3, $7 & $13, and 430 Tomlinson figure tells us there's ample room for improvement. #5 READY TO ESCAPE has yet to miss the money, and Baker more than doubles his normative 20% batting average with 2nd off the layoff maiden special weight dirt dashers who hit the board last time out ( $12, $3 & $4 ). #2 UNSULLIED has gone 62-65 in the two dirt outings, and the last occurred after getting smacked around pretty good at the onset; second time hood today.

 

Race  8 

1.March

2.Profiteer

3.Blacktype ( Fr )

There are three tidy but tight DRF Formulator stats in play for today's feature, so let's get right to 'em in no frills fashion...  #1 MARCH ( a February foal descended from 'Arch' -- so I guess that's a bit of a compromise ) hasn't seen the scene since 3/3, but is 5:3-1-0 off "legit" layoffs, has been gelded since last scene, and 26% bossman is 3 fer 5 w/ optional turf stayers of breaks of 46 days or more ( $11, $5 & $4 ). #6 PROFITEER is another one off the bench today, but that's ai'ight, as this one is but a neck shy of a poyfect 3 for 3 mark when doing such. Additionally, the Shugmeister is 2 for 5 with those fitting this criteria who missed the baccala 39-77 days back & are 4-1 or undah this afternoon. #3 BLACKTYPE (FR) has earned plenty of that in his wonderful career, and C-Squared ( 19% when having his morning muffin ) is 4-12 with locally based opt. turf routers who crashed the party in last & are between 3-1 & 9-2 today ( $10 & $7 X 3 ).  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-3

 

Race  9 

1.Spa Jazz

2.Time Expired

3.Good Old Boy

Lucky enough to be typing this ( and many other columns ) in the middle of a month long James Bond marathon. Enclosed is a clip from my favorite of 'em all -- 'Live and Let Die', with a CLASSIC scene including 'Sheriff Pepper' : "Secret agent ?? On WHO'S side ???" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI0Bknh65mA . Oh yeah, that actor ( Clifton James ) was a multi decorated WWII veteran with several medals as well. His biography ( he was also in Cool Hand Luke ) can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clifton_James . As for the nitecap... #7 SPA JAZZ down the lane. Book it. #1A TIME EXPIRED came rallying strongly to grab 20% of the purse last time out, and is 3rd off the L/O today while picking up a hotter rider. #8 GOOD OLD BOY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-4-7-10-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-5-10.

 

Belmont        ( Current )    15-114   ( $98.60 )    Beatable Favorites:    2-6    ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %: 52-114  ( 45.6% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                 Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-48     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-48    ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9416 ($16,333.20) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9510( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9984 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10096( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017