KevinCoxItem

Well, at least we didn't have to change many stats for today. Eeeesh...

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 9/23

 

Race  1

1.Gargan Entry

2.Cookie Crisp

3.Over Rider

Both #1 PLAYWRIGHT and #1A BLURRED LINE simply seem to lay over this bunch, with the former backed by a 3 for 7 Formulator stat which has this barn at just that with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the board < 45 days ago & are beneath 2-1 today. For those show bettors, if both of these hit the board, the price could be a bit better. #4 COOKIE CRISP has done his best work at this trip and over this strip, May spice things up a bit. #2 OVER RIDER is 4:1-2-0 at the trip and is dropped down to the level claimed from two starts ago. 

 

Race  2

1.Graded on a Curve

2.Albie

3.Quiet Out East

#2 GRADED ON A CURVE closed nicely for 3rd after a troubled onset when debuting up north a month ago and should appreciate today's added distance; mild edge. #5 ALBIE hasn't shown much in the mornings, but is a half to a 1 for 5 turf router, and the scorching Johnny V. sees fit to ride. #1 QUIET OUT EAST closed out the superfecta in the career starter and slides in six slots today. Expect some improvement.  OFF TURF: 3-7-5-8-1

 

Race   3

1.U R Not So Bad

2.Epic Dreamer

3.Mihos

#2 U R NOT SO BAD down the lane. #8 EPIC DREAMER has a couple'a decent moves on the docket for today's career starter, owns a nice Tomlinson figure, and has some siblings who have amassed a 4-19 record in dirt dashes ( 169K ). Dig the draw. #7 MIHOS has been sizzling in the mornings for Double J and is a half to a 1 fer 6 dirt sprinter. Check the changes today, as Junior took quite a tumble here on Friday. 

 

Race  4 

1.Love Nest 

2.Hierarchy 

3.Frontier Market

#1 LOVE NEST posted an adjusted 77.8 in the lone try over firm ground ( doing even better than that over softer stuff ) and ended up in the Albertrani barn after the last. That's a bit odd, as he's only claimed three in the last 1/20th of a century, but the 2-0-1 mark has our interest piqued, especially after seeing the prices of $27 & $10. Getting Jersey Joe at a big numbah. #10 HIERARCHY improved a bit from the first start to the second, and chased return winners in each of those heats. Shug ( 17% on the norm ) is an astounding 13:7-1-4 with runners fitting all this exact criteria ( 103 days or less ) between the odds of 1.25-1 & 3.75-1 ( $3.33 ROI ). #7 FRONTIER MARKET has been immolating baccala of late, but must be left in the mix because of the figures earned.  OFF TURF: 7-9-10-1-3

 

Race  5

1.Marengo Road

2.Secret Passage

3.Adulator

#8 MARENGO ROAD has partaken in the exacta in 9 of 21 lifetime, and Trombetta owns a 3 for 7 mark when cutting back his optional dirt stock who were ITM in last & are 12-1 or under. #4 SECRET PASSAGE won his only start here, is 3 for 9 @ the trip, and has won his last two when entered at this price or less. #2 ADULATOR is protected against the claim today after being snagged in the latest by Diodoro, and why not, as this one went pillar to post back in mid August. Five year old has a second & third from as many "second off the break" attempts, while having hit the board in 5 of 8 right here. Sensible "unders" candidate. 

 

Race  6 

1.Cirque

2.Lune Lake

3.Birthday Gift

#6 CIRQUE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but returns with the wonder drug administered for the first time today, and has done little wrong in the last troika of turf outings ( 1-2-0 ). #12 LUNE LAKE has gone 52-57-71 in his three turf starts ( a 4th, 2nd & win ), so who really knows where is ceiling is.  #3 BIRTHDAY GIFT rallied nicely to collect 10% of the purse at 38-1 in last, and the lone go round over firm found yielded an adjusted speed figure of 71.1; we contemplated putting this one up top, but Maragh is winning at just a miserable 3% at the stand.  OFF TURF: 6-10-8-9-7

 

Race  7

1.Lady Joan

2.Fifty Five

3.War Canoe

#1 LADY JOAN has been in the tri in 9 of 10, has a win & a third from as many starts when beginning from the inside, comes in off a career best performance, & is 3:1-2-0 over the inner oval. Solid selection. #9 FIFTY FIVE is another steady customer, having been in the triple in 13 of 14 lifetime starts, and Brown is 10:4-4-1-1 with locally based ungraded turf routers who crashed the fiesta 20-40 days ago & are below the 2-1 watermark today. #7 WAR CANOE may come along for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 4-5-2-1-10

 

Race  8 

1.Lewis Bay

2.Kirby's Penny

3.Still There 

#3 LEWIS BAY is 3 for 5 over this strip ( 3-11 otherwise ), is 3:1-1-0-1 in "2nd off the L/O" tries, and is pretty much the class of this field. Slight edge in the Gallant Bloom. #2 KIRBY'S PENNY owns a crisp 4 for 5 record at this dist. ( 3 fer 8 @ other trips ) and has a win & a runner up finish from as many local starts. Velazquez in another world these days. #1 STILL THERE has gone 73-86-94-94 in her quartet of dirt tries, and being lightly raced, may still have some room for improvement. Love that the front wraps were removed in last, and gal can sit the perfect trip today. 

 

Race  9 

1.Call Provision

2.Offering Plan

3.Kharafa

#11 CALL PROVISION was rightfully set down in the last outing up in the Adirondacks, but that's okay as Chad had another in the race ( what else is knew ) who won. Chestnut gelding has the perfect type of "declining" mark that we've grown to love ( 18:7-4-1 ) as it shows he has a nose for the line, and 26% clan is 4 for 6 with those fitting all this exact criteria ( same jock, even $ to 3-1 ). #4 OFFERING PLAN ( second half of the uncoupled entry with the above ) is a model of consistency & owns a win & two placings from as many calls to the post over this course. You gotta love a horse like the #2 KHARAFA ( 6:3-0-3 at the trip ) who gives his all each and every time, as attested by the 50:13-13-9 career boxscore. Could pose a late threat with a little pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 4-1(MTO)-8-11-5

 

Race  10

1.Trumpit

2.Eighty Seven North

3.Tappanzee

#10 TRUMPIT split the field at 31-1 first time out, and three returnees from that afternoon have subsequently gone 1-0-0-2 in their followup tries. #2 EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH ( the main road taking one up to Saratoga ) begins her professional career today, and February foal does so with a healthy 345 Tomlinson figure for the sod. Paternal grandsire was 2 for 3 over firm ground, and this one is worth inclusion at a price. #9 TAPPANZEE ( the bridge you would take to get to 87 north ! ) faded a bit after a half in the bow, but has fired a bullet breeze since, and deserves another shot.  OFF TURF: 10-12-2-1-13(AE)

  

Belmont        ( Current )     13-95   ( $89.40 )    Beatable Favorites:    2-6    ( 33.3% )   Favorites Win %: 41-95    ( 43.2% ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-48     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-48    ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9416 ($16,333.20) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9510( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9984 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10096( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017