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Just one chalky winner yesterday, which is to be expected here when it's going as it has been the first two days ( 19 races -- 10 Favorites, 3 Second Choices, 3 Third Choices ).

What we do is keep plugging away like we normally do, waiting for that pendulum to swing !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 9/9 - ( Never forget September 11th )

 

Race  1

1.Madame Barbarian 

2.Arewehavingfunyet

3.Woundwithhereyes

#5 MADAME BARBARIAN wired similar up north 37 days ago, and did so despite having some new Buster Browns affixed pre-start. 2 fer 5 here & 3-9 @ the dist. help matters, as does the 5:2-1-1-1 record when starting from the outside. #2 AREWEHAVINGFUNYET has partaken in the superfecta in her last dozen outings, and has done well at this trip & over this strip. Logical. #3 WOUNDWITHHEREYES never looked comfortable trailing throughout in an off the turf event on August 17th, but posted an okay # in the start just before that, and is dropped below the level claimed from six starts ago. Decent shot to pick up a check shipping down from Oklahoma ( where trainer is keeping his string post-Saratoga for the first time ).  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, IF THE TRACK IS WET, THEN OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-2-1.

 

Race  2

1.Duncastle 

2.Shiny Copper Penny

3.Strategic Outlook

#7 DUNCASTLE posted an adjusted 87.3 when debuting on the sod this past winter, but was then sidelined before showing brief hoof in both starts since the break. Trainer employing a "dirt-dirt-turf, sprint-sprint-route, dropdown" angle today, and we've ALWAYS had an affinity for tiring sand dashers going long on the lawn for the 1st time. Watch out, suckahs ! #1 SHINY COPPER PENNY is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but with this type we like to go anywhere in the P.P.'s to find something positive ( after all, none of these have won ), and there are in fact some decent routing lines in this one's history. Reyes just a single digit jockey, but is pretty good on the front end. #2 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK was a game runner up in the career starter ( a race from which five starters have come back to amass a 5:2-0-1 record in four different races next time out ), but what befuddles us is the fact that this $300,000 purchase ( with apparent upside ) is now in for 1/4th of that amount. This ain't the closing week at Saratoga with a trainer's title on the line, so, what the dilly?  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-1-7

 

Race   3

1.Aurelius Maximus 

2.Empire of War 

3.Fullness of Time

#5 AURELIUS MAXIMUS was an honest enough third in the upstate overture, and after taking two weeks off, has worked out on a weekly basis since, culminating with a bullet breeze on the first of the month. Six runners from that heat have put up a 2-1-0-1 mark in their follow up starts, with five of 'em improving in the Beyer department. Love the draw. #4 EMPIRE OF WAR got smacked around a bit in last & can move forward with a tidier sojourn second time out. #3 FULLNESS OF TIME has been working in company ( and identically from a time perspective ) with the top choice since mid August and should be fairly close to that once again.  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, IF THE TRACK IS WET, THEN OUR SELECTIONS ARE 5-3-4.

 

Race  4 

1.Mai Ty One On

2.Fear

3.Big Rock

#3 MAI TY ONE ON has scored in three of five and is 1 for 2 when up for sale. Slight edge in a tough affair. #2 FEAR has won 4 of his last 5 when available for purchase ( with the most recent coming 12 days less than three years ago ), and comes in today with some excellent form. #1 BIG ROCK has hit the board in 2 of 3 "second off the L/O" tries  and got the job done the only time he began from the pine.  OFF TURF: 4-5-3-6-1 

 

Race  5

1.Hay Field

2.Golden State

3.Picture Day

We'll blast off with the 3-2-1 triple in today's 3rd... #3 HAY FIELD has won 4 of her last 5 while being a part of the exacta in 10 of 15 over the career. That in itself is enough reason to place upstairs. #2 GOLDEN STATE undergoes a bevy of changes today ( 2X to 1X, T to D, new track & first time eye cups ) and would only need to find one one of those agreeable to crash the party in this truncated allotment. #1 PICTURE DAY has that lovely type of "declining" record that we've grown to dig, because as my bud Gerard has always said: "It shows she knows where the line is.", and has some nice tactical speed which should put her right in the middle of things.  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, IF THE TRACK IS WET, THEN OUR SELECTIONS ARE 3-1-2.

 

Race  6 

1.Manoffire

2.Honor Up

3.Hoboe

#8 MANOFFIRE comes in today off a lifetime best number after rallying late in the game ( while being very wide ) on 8/17, and owns a 1 for 4 ledger on this course. Meek selection. #6 HONOR UP took the overland route in the most recent, and despite finishing fourth, lost by less than a length. Castellano takes over. #7 HOBOE hasn't seen the scene in nearly the entire length of a calendar, but did some fine things after transitioning surfaces in '17 and now returns sans tes-tee-klees. Live runner if fully cranked up for this.  OFF TURF: 5(MTO)-2-3-4(MTO)-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 5-1-4.

 

Race  7

1.Larceny

2.Family Biz

3.Jake Rocks

#2 LARCENY had an awful trip second time out, and gets a tremendous upgrade in the jockey department today. There's been a sizzling "best of 82" workout since, and although the last time out was technically "First time Lasix", he didn't get a chance to do much running 22 days back, and may "steal" this one. #3 FAMILY BIZ was a well clear runner up when outrunning his odds in the Adirondack overture, and we like that this one is still running without the miracle drug while being claim protected. #8 JAKE ROCKS has been faring well in the A.M.'s for the beginning of today's career and went for 41X the stud fee at Ocala this year.  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, IF THE TRACK IS WET, THEN OUR SELECTIONS ARE 2-5-4.

 

Race  8 

1.Divine Miss Grey 

2.Come Dancing

3.No Need to Appeal

#4 DIVINE MISS GRAY immolated some baccala at the end of July, but is a sensational 19:9-4-1 lifetime and got the job done the only time she went from two turns to one. #3 COME DANCING has been beset by a couple'a lengthy breaks in the action, but the talent is still obviously there, and Johnny V. was aboard for the maiden breaker way back when. #1 NO NEED TO APPEAL got up in time in a roughly run optional event in mid August, and while this one has in fact improved over her last triad of starts over a fast surface, we'll leave beneath because of the 0-2 mark when beginning from the inside.  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Tiger Man

2.Pipes

3.Doups Point

#5 TIGER MAN improved from his first start to the 2nd, and then once again 3rd time out. Second time going 2 turns and is a price play in the nitecap. #8 PIPES has completed the triple in both calls to the post and Johnny sees fit to hop on a horse w/a crackling sharp work just 72 hours ago. #2 DOUPS POINT finished second in the infamous "wrong distance" race up north, and we always like when a trainer isn't scared to make a a change after a solid performance, so, the blinks go on here. Must include on all your rollers.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-8-7 

 

Belmont        ( Current )     2-19     ( $16.60 )    Beatable Favorites: N/A                    Favorites Win %: 10-19     ( 52.6% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1946-9413 ($16,325.50)Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3445-9507( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9981 ($17,144.70) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3608-10094( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017