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Just one on top winner for eight clams yesterday, but we saved some face with a $31 cold exacta, and a $154/$950 Exacta/Triple Box combo in the 7th, aided by our 32-1 top choice running a gutsy second.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 9/8 - Our 10,000th Race !

 

Race  1

1.Wild With Style

2.Party in the Sand

3.Thirsty Gal

#4 WILD WITH STYLE hasn't shown much since returning off the elongated absence, but with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in the P.P.'s, as thery're maidens for a reason, you know. Going wayyyy back, there were some running lines that would win a race such as this, and there was a touch of speed in the Suffolk foray in the penultimate out. Bombs away ! #5 PARTY IN THE SAND however, is the more sensible selection in today's opener. The recent numbers are solid enough, and 11% rider has done better than that for this outfit. #6 THIRSTY GAL rallied resolutely to procure 20% of the pot 200 miles northward, and subsequently fired off a sizzling bullet over the training track here ( always a positive sign for a closer. Must use. 

 

Race  2

1.Awesome Thought

2.Top of the Page

3.My Cousin Lou

#7 AWESOME THOUGHT has hit the board in 8 of 9, owns a win & a third in as many starts when going 2X to 1X, and 11% jockola nearly triples that rate when riding for Jorge "The Greatest Trainer in God's Green Earth" Navarro. #2 TOP OF THE PAGE is back in Gullo's barn for the 3rd time in 6 starts, after yet another claim ( this one's 5th in nine outings ), and why not, as the chestnut gelding always seems to give a good account of himself. Six year old has done okay here, but Luzzi with just a 5% win rate on the year. #1 MY COUSIN LOU owns a win and two thirds from as many outings when breaking from the pine, recently finished 3rd behind a next out winner, and had a placing beneath today's jock as well. NOTE: AS OF 12:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Magical Romance

2.Missbigtimes

3.Quietly Quick

#3 MAGICAL ROMANCE showed very little in the off the turfer in Saratoga, but came along for 3rd on his own courage in the turf debut right here at 43-1. The # was a bit lowish that day, but this one's paternal grandsire won his only turf sprint, and sometimes those w/few starts can improve by leaps & bounds. #1 MISSBIGTIMES has unproven turf pedigree in the family tree, but has speed & the rail, and sometimes that's enough in a race such as this. #2 QUIETLY  QUICK hung up a pair of decent turf #'s back in the spring, but then in a bewildering move, was spotted on the sand in mid June...with grotesque results. Been given some time off to recover, and is now back on the gramma. Expecting a better result today.  OFF TURF: 7-4-6-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Weather Report 

2.Dirty

3.World of Trouble

#3 WEATHER REPORT has rattled off a grand slam, done so over three different surfaces, with four different jockeys, and $7,500 claim is a very deserving choice in this stakes. #2 DIRTY ( out of "Martini"...ya get it ? ) has become an entirely different animal since transitioning over to the green ( 3 for 3 on firm turf ) and is tough to fault. #5 WORLD OF TROUBLE has oodles of zip, and took to the green stuff quite well on August 8th, going wire to wire in a nearly identical spot. Pretty interesting race here, no?  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-5-6

 

Race  5

1.Truly a Moon Shot

2.Cavallotto

3.Hokulea

We think you can be somewhat forgiving of the recent outing of #7 TRULY A MOON SHOT. Gelding ( as mandated by the rules if you want to start in < 30 days after a claim ) was hiked up to a level he had never won at, and methinks it was done to throw some people off the scent as what was otherwise successful form ( made the super in eight straight ). There's a layoff line on the page, but we don't really consider it a "layoff". Why ? Because the DRF says that anything >45 days is just that, but we like to use 50 days, as it's human nature for gamblers to toss a horse when they see that line, but we go the extra 10% to find runners with better odds. Gelding is a nibblah by rote, but is much better over this particular surface ( 4:1-0-3 ). The more we type... #9 CAVALLOTTO ( a winery ) had backers reaching for the bottle after disappointing at 2-1 on August 10th, but on the whole, this one owns a nifty collection of speed figs and has had some nice success beneath my boy Dylan. Include in your rollers. #1 HOKULEA went from zero to hero to score in a similar spot up in the Adirondacks a baker's dozen days ago and should be rolling late once again. 

 

Race  6 

1.Semper Sententiae

2.Windjammer ( Ger )

3.Beau Belle

#6 SEMPER SENTENTIAE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) had a difficult sojourn in the overture on opening weekend in Toga town, but posted a nice numero that afternoon, and pedigree tells us that there is MUCH room for improvement. #1 WINDJAMMER (GER) broke our hearts when we had her on top two starts ago, but you still need to respect the speed, as well as the inside slot. #5 BEAU BELLE missed by just a neck on opening weekend upstate, and while owning a steady body of work, just seems like a fringe player to us, so we'll leave underneath.  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-5-4

 

Race  7

1.Helooksthepart

2.Poshsky

3.Fire Mission

#5 HELOOKSTHEPART sure has danced a lot of tangos, huh? 51 starts...31 times in the money, and still chucking it in the high 80's. Johnny V. climbs on, and this one definitely---looks the part. #4 POSHSKY was visually impressive when winning by a handful just nine days back, and Gary does the smart thing and steps this one up more than 50% to see how good this one can get in this form cycle. Eight year old has done well here and deserves a looksie. #6 FIRE  MISSION completes our troika of runners who have been on this earth for 96 months ( or so ), and this guy is yet another one earning his keep and then some. Another fun race to watch here !!  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Not So Quiet Man

2.Outrageous Bet

3.Ghost Giant

#3 NOT SO QUIET MAN has an awkward running line looking at ya from the last ( with a baby "Z" pattern to boot ), but Javy sticks around and this one missed by less then a length in the last turf sprint over a firm surface. #4 OUTRAGEOUS BET has done his best work here and seems to be heading in the right direction. #8 GHOST GIANT has improved by both leaps AND bounds since switching both surfaces AND conditioners on 7/7, and we like "vastly improved maiden breakers facing winners for the first time" as sometimes they get overlooked parimutually.  OFF TURF: 8-6-1-2-3

 

Race  9 

1.Length  

2.Majestic Won

3.Eloweasel 

#9 LENGTH won in her first turf sprint, so why would we try to get past her here? Back to back jacks well within reach. #4 MAJESTIC WON was a "high priced losing favorite" ( $3.70-1 ) in the first try versus winners, but that was over soft ground and had procured the diploma over the firm stuff just before that. Let's give this one a chance to redeem herself at decent mutuels, shall we? #5 ELOWEASEL rarely gets respect at the windows but is always right there, and honk if you like Donk.  OFF TURF: 7-1-4-8-9

 

Race  10

1.Willing to Speed

2.Real Money

3.Medina Ridge

Folks....this is it...our 10,000th race analysis here. We started a bit under six years ago, and have not missed ONE day since. No vacations. No sick days. No nothing. Just ( approximately ) 15,000,000 words of typing ! We haven't taken a day off, because we love it so---and owe it to all of you readers. Thank you SO much for all of your support during this time...for all your contributions to horse racing related charities...and finally -- for making me strive to do my best. Looking forward to 20,000 !!   #9 WILLING TO SPEED starts his working life today, and while the turf breeding is a ?, Kimmel hasn't missed a work with this one in about a month and a half and was patient enough to wait for this spot. Timid selection. #7 REAL MONEY is another one with the "first day jitters " today, but T-Gaff gets the call, and there are no Manila's signed on, so we'll nibble a bit -- despite Casse coming in off a lousy 'Toga meet. #1 MEDINA RIDGE has about the best turf breeding that you can have in this sport ( War Front over a Smart Strike mare ) and gets Franco for the debut assignment, which is fine by us, as he's coming off a solid Saratoga stand.   OFF TURF: 8-1A-9-2-10

 

Belmont        ( Current )     1-9      ( $8.30 )        Beatable Favorites: N/A                    Favorites Win %: 5-9       ( 55.5% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1946-9413 ($16,325.50)Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3445-9507( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9981 ($17,144.70) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3608-10094( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017