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Now THAT'S how you break out of a slump !

We started out the day yesterday with a $10 winner in the first...than a $7 winner in the second ( $58 Daily Double )...then a $45 winner in the third ( $233 Double, $1,421 Pick 3, $110 exacta box...then a $26 exacta box in the 9th...then a $14 winner in the feature !!

Let's finish up in style ! 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #12 Pipes ( AE ) OR #3 Beach Front


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Saratoga - 9/2

 

Race  1

1.The Chamo

2.Bronze Age

3.Merger of Banks

#7 THE CHAMO ground out a win ( or is it "grinded out a win" ? ) here 16 days ago to get the diploma at 4-1, and fits snugly for a barn who has picked things up of late. 10% Contessa is 7:3-1-3 with mid level dirt stock who won the maiden in last & are 9-2 or less today. Junior with a catch mount. #6  BRONZE AGE closed out the exacta in his last "second off the shelf" attempt and has the ability to send or rate. #2 MERGER OF BANKS is another coming in off the initial tally who figures from a Beyer perspective.

 

Race  2

1.See Below

2.See Below

3.See Below

Okay folks, here's the skinny: Once in a while our "key" horse ( not necessarily the one we're going to play, but the one who is our "bar" for the race ) is on the A.E. list, and what we're going to do is give you two scenarios here -- One is if he draws into the race, and one if he is declared.  If the #12 Pipes makes it into the field, then our selections will be #4 EXCHANGE FEVER ( Weaver 9:3-4-0 with locally based 2YO first time turf sprinters at this level, paying $40, $9 & $17; Dam was 2 for 3 in turf ashes while the daddy was 2-2 doing the same, and isn't it cool to still see Danzig on the page ? ) -- #6 BETTOR BANK ON IT -- #2 KID CHOCOLATE.    Now, if the #12 is scratched, then our selections will be #4 -- #11 BUSTIN HOFFMAN (AE) -- #6 .   OFF TURF: 12(AE)-7-10-2-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 PIPES (AE) ( if he draws in ) or the #3 BEACH FRONT ( if he doesn't ) are both backed by 0-9 trainer stats.

A lotta work, peeps !  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 4-6-2.

 

Race   3

1.Almithmaar

2.Fully Vested 

3.Rubus

#5 ALMITHMAAR's last race speed figure supersedes anything that anyone in the race has hung up, and McL. ( 20% when taking off his jammies in the morning ) is a groovy 5 for 8 with allowance dirt stock who crashed the party here 23-47 days ago & are 3-1 or less; dig the slot. #2 FULLY VESTED was the easiest kind of winner here in the goo on 7/26, but note that the result came with the addition of blinkers. Sometimes horses can regress in the subsequent outings after an equipment or medication change. ( You can only be "awoken" once. ) #3 RUBUS ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) rounds out the top three in a race where we GUARANTEE one of these will hit the board.

 

Race  4 

1.Graceful Princess

2.Filly Joel

3.Dovey Lovey

#4 GRACEFUL PRINCESS begins her professional working life today, and does so with a couple of nice breezes, a healthy 402 Tomlinson for the distance, and a small ( but tight ) trainer stat which has Lynch at 2  fer 4 w/'Toga based firsters on the sand at this level ( 18-1 or less ). The winners returned $23 & $7, and Dam, Sire, paternal Grandsire, and maternal Grandsire were each 1 for 1 in dirt dashes, while both granddams were each 1-8. #9 FILLY JOEL was "off a beat slow" ( musical reference? ) in the bow, but still lost by less than two at 11-1, earning a very solid number. Not sure why Irad's off here, but Castellano is a more than capable replacement. #2 DOVEY LOVEY bested more than half the field in the career starter at 46-1, despite Junior getting a bit of butterfingers late in the game, and should improve off that effort.  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   5

1.Tiz Priceless 

2.She Doesn't Mind ( Fr )

3.Questeq

There are three "tidy but tight" DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em in no nonsense fashion...  #9 TIZ PRICELESS: 13% Kimmel is 3 for 5 when gong short to long & brown to green off absences of 36 days or less @ > 6-1 & < 18-1. The winners came back a fat $17, $27 & $15, and we just saw Rosario employ the "Rope-A-Dope" to perfection in a turf route as we type this on Friday. #8 SHE DOESN'T MIND: Abreu ( 14% day to day ) has won with 3 of 5 mid level turf routers who were 1-2-3 less than 1 1/2 months ago that are 5-1 or lower ( positive ROI ). #1 QUESTEQ: Toscano more than doubles his normative 12% rate ( 4-16 ) with those going long on the lawn at this level who crashed the party 11-21 days back @ 40-1 or less, and just LOOK at these payouts -- $68, $32, $11 & $12 !!  OFF TURF: 12-8-9-6-3

 

Race  6 

1.Alphabetting ( AE )

2.Girl of Toscanova

3.Enough Love

#12 ALPHABETTING (AE) needs a couple to get out in order to get in, but was exceptionally wide in the turf debut, and has fired off an Oklahoma bullet since then. Contessa ( from an itty bitty survey ) is 2 fer 4 w/second time mdspwt. starters making this surface transition between odds of 5-1 & 15-1 ( $6 & $17 ). #8 SASSY AGNES was a mite tardy to the party when debuting 32 days back, but flashed a bit of early hoof, and Rice owns a 3 for 7 mark when making this surface swap with her 2TS'ers off breaks of less than two months ( 10-1 or beneath ). #1 ENOUGH LOVE ( second half of the uncoupled entry with 'Nova ) starts things out today & is backed by a 7:3-2-1 DRF stat as Linda is just that with those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( 7-1 or undah ). NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Tweedia

2.Takecharge Mirella

3.She's Got It All

#2 TWEEDIA caught some wet ground and got smacked around a smidge in the overture, but has put forth a sensational bullet breeze since and the last place finisher from that day came back to run second, raising the Beyer bar from an 11 to a 58. Cheaply bred chap was dropped from a dam who went 1 for 4 in dirt dashes ( 59K ), while being a full to a 1-8 sand sprinter ( 30G ). For all you place bettors out there, we feel that the #4 TAKECHARGE MIRELLA will be no worse than second in this spot, after that well beaten -- but well clear placing the day before "Bijou Day". #10 SHE'S GOT IT ALL has experience & decent figs; that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  8 

1.Killeen

2.Congruity

3.Double Deep

#7 KILLEEN takes about a 35% drop in class today while getting a legit rider exchange. 27% shedrow owns a glistening 7 for 9 ledger with with mid level turf routers who crashed the fiesta ( a concise ( 22-28 days back ) in teh odds range of 3-1 to 9-2 ( $5.47 return on investment ). #1 CONGRUITY has speed, the rail, and comes in off a solid wire job versus slightly weaker. Big shot once again. #10 DOUBLE DEEP regressed a bit in the second start off the bench and finished 2nd in the lone "3rd off the L/O" try, so we'll include beneath.  OFF TURF: 1-6-7-10-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.War Cabinet

2.Mighty Scarlett

3.Too Cool to Dance

We're here typing at the track after the races, and running out of a bit of gas ( as beautiful as it is here ), and came thisclose to putting Miighty Scarlett on top and typing "Demolishes these". But then we started looking at the #2 WAR CABINET a bit. Shug charge was all out to procure the sheepskin on opening weekend, and although the number earned from that heat essentially puts her in a grouping with many others here -- we see some potential for vast improvement. Being a War Front out of a Red Ransom mare, this one is monstrously bred for the gramma, and although she's already been over the stuff thrice -- she's only raced over firm ground but once. We have always felt the need to see a horse race at least twice over a particular set of conditions before really formulating an opinion, and do we see her improving by 20 points here in besting the odds on favorite ? Well, let's just say that it's a tall order. What we DO like, is the potential for improvement at double digit odds, so we'll bite ! The aforementioned #8 MIGHTY SCARLETT simply lays over this field from a #'s perspective, and it's her race to lose. #3 TOO COOL TO DANCE imposes a big threat being the lone speed with Joel; higher priced portion of the Brown entry.  OFF TURF: 9-3-5-4-9

 

Race  10

1.Purrfect Miss 

2.Sower

3.Dream Pauline

Wide open rendition of the Grade 2 Prioress here...  #10 PURRFECT MISS has gone 68-79-83 in her three dirt outings over a glib surface, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is. Gal has done some good work here and we love the draw while you'll be getting Jose at boxcar odds. #3 SOWER is but 3/4's of a length shy of a poyfect 4 for 4 mark, and we like that Irad tried to rate this one a bit last out. Rice ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 5 with locally stabled graded dirt stock going short who were ITM in last ( $6 & $11 ). There's an old adage in this game to never discount an undefeated animal at 3-1 or more, and it's for just that reason that we'll include the #5 DREAM PAULINE NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Excellent Sunset ( Ire )  

2.Jaunt

3.Transaction Tax

#1 EXCELLENT SUNSET (IRE) got up in time to procure the sheepskin at the Pea Patch, and the runner up from that heat came back to get her Polaroid taken, upping the Beyer # 13 points in the process. Walsh owns a tidy 2-4 mark with turf stayers who got the diploma 40-80 days back & are 12-1 or beneath today. Snugly drawn. #4 JAUNT is a nibblah by rote ( 16:1-4-5 ), but the best of her work has come at this particular distance ( 7:1-2-3 ), and should sit a nice stalking trip here to get a share. #5 TRANSACTION TAX appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and finished third in this race on July 22nd. Why not again?  OFF TURF: 2-1-6-5-7

 

Race  12 

1.Hieroglyphics

2.Neoclassic

3.St. Louie

Apparently Linda didn't feel she properly saw the writing on the wall with the purchase of #12 HIEROGLYPHICS, as she halves this runner in class for the first start off the claim, but don't fret, my pet, as there's a cool Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 1,826 days, Rice is a more than nice 5 for 7 when dropping this type 50% or > off layoffs of 83 days or lower ( 6-1 or less ), and has a positive return on investment there as well. She just breaks even with a win and a claim, so expect this one to be cranked up. #4 NEOCLASSIC has gotten the job done in two of the last three, and has been kept in jail since the Belmont score, so is able to come back at the level of that race. It wasn't in the cards for #11 ST. LOUIE in the most recent try off the claim/layoff, but is another taking the plunge today, and we'll toss in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 10-13(MTO)-7-1-8

 

 
Saratoga       ( Current )   74-381   ( $803.20 )     Beatable Favorites:   7-38  ( 18.4% )  Favorites Win %: 135-381 ( 35.4% )( As of Sunday morning )

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 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017