KevinCoxItem

 

Chock Full'O Chalk yesterday ( been that way of late ) as five of 'em came home, with us having two.  

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 9/1

 

Race  1

1.Signalman

2.Felix the Fox

3.Will Dancer

#6 SIGNALMAN came along nicely to procure 20% of the purse at CD on the 17th of May, and we like that McPeek is keeping Lasix out of the mix with this one. Five runners from that affair have come back to amass a 5:1-2-0-2 mark in their subsequent ( four ) outings, with an average Beyer improvement of seven points. 14% clan is 4-9 with locally based second time starters under these conditions, with mutuels of $9, $38, $12 & $13. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with #4 FELIX THE FOX here, as there's a lovely bullet gate breeze on display amidst a bevy of ordinary moves, and additionally, Shug is 2 for 5 with those fitting all this criteria at 14-1 or less. #7 WILL DANCER is exceptionally bred & is backed by top flight connections. 

 

Race  2

1.Canarsie Kid

2.Dowse's Beach

3.Platinum Prince

#6 CANARSIE KID emplyed a change of tactics in the last when coming from off the pace to finish third at this level, and did so despite running extremely wide. Miceli ( who beat our 18-1 shot in Wednesday's nitecap ) is 7:3-1-2 with runners of this ilk who crashed the party 17-36 days back ( $6, $30 & $12 ), and that's substantially better than his normative 12% average. #1 DOWSE'S BEACH has never been in this cheaply & has won half of his six starts here. #9 PLATINUM PRINCE was promptly claimed when dropped down to a lifetime low, then was subsequently sent to the shelf where he's dropped down in class once again. With that, bells should go off, but we'll leave in the mix because of the back class. Take a peek in the paddock if possible.  OFF TURF: 10-1-3-5-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Illudere

2.Business Cycle

3.Raising the Flag

#3 ILLUDERE has posted a couple of decent #'s in both starts to date and has the hood added today by Double J. Jockey/Trainer combo has done exceptionally well here the last two years. Slight edge. #4 BUSINESS CYCLE has two monstrous Beyers on the page, but beware of taking short odds in 2nd off the layoff tries. #7 RAISING THE FLAG ( like our top choice, cross entered tomorrow, so check the changes ) hasn't been seen in quite some time, but exits an uuber key race where 4 of 8 returnees ( from seven different heats ) came back to win their next starts. New trainer Asmussen thought enough of this one to ship northward after the crisp breeze on 8/13. NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO TWO KEY SCRATCHES, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS. #6 ( Rudy 3 for 4 when adding blinkers to first off the claim dirt dashers who were ITM < 71 days ago ) --- #5 ( Lukas a groovy 4 for 8 when going green to brown & long to short with maiden special weight dirt runners off breaks of 14-50 days at 20-1 or beneath ) --- #4.

 

Race  4 

1.Breaking the Rules

2.Night Prowler

3.Team Colors

We're all over the #1 BREAKING THE RULES in this spot. Shug charge is fantastically better bred for a turf route than a sloppy dirt sprint, and yet, the figure earned from the last wasn't that bad. 17% shotcaller is 4 for 6 with those going long and trying the lawn for the first time ( < 39 days ) at odds of 9-1 or less. The winners returned $5, $5, $11 & $7, and we're expecting a BIG effort here. #4 NIGHT PROWLER is a $429,000+ earner who can be all yours for 62 large today ( first time in for a tag ), and six year old owns a win & a third from as many "second off the shelf" forays. Hasn't won in nearly two years, so we'll leave underneath. #5 TEAM COLORS has cracked the "90" level in 8 of his last 9 turf attempts, so right off the bat, we like this one's consistency. That aside, Diodoro saw fit to plunk down half a yard for this one six weeks back, and we actually consider this a slight drop in class ( open claimers to optional claimers ) off that 3rd place finish; logical inclusion.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-2-9

 

Race  5

1.Tres Equis

2.Mr. Dougie Fresh 

3.Uncle Sigh

#7 TRES EQUIS ( "Stay even thirstier, my friends." ) is a bit light from a speed figure aspect, but closed out the exacta in the lone start off the bench, and is claim protected in an allowance race, when I'm sure there could be softer spots for him to land; Brissett 3 for 3 in allowance dirt races. #2 MR. DOUGIE FRESH will be led over by a gentleman who's a large 7-14 w/runners of this ilk off absences of 37-75 days ( 10-1 or beneath ). #1 UNCLE SIGH sure is a game chap, ain't he? Seven year old who led California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby has found a resurgence of late, and it's kind of hard to argue with an animal who's been 1-2 in 17 of 31. 

 

Race  6 

1.Noble Spirit 

2.Spirit Animal 

3.Justcallmenorman

#2 NOBLE SPIRIT was a lively 3rd first time out for Weaver, who owns a 3 fer 6 mark with second time starters in maiden special weight turf routes at 10-1 or under ( $10, $10 & $6 ). Saez with a big day here on Wednesday. #3 SPIRIT ANIMAL encountered a bit of trouble in an off the turf event right here, but still closed out the superfecta in last. Nicely bred for this trip. #5 JUSTCALLMENORMAN begins the professional career today and is a half to a 2 for 5 dirt stayer. Irad takes the call for a frigid barn.  OFF TURF: 1-2-9-4-5

 

Race  7

1.Chris and Dave

2.Long Haul Bay

3.Phi Beta Express

#8 CHRIS AND DAVE was visually impressive when winning here on July 28th, and as a matter of fact has been ITM in 7 of 8 and 10 of 12. 24% shedrow is a fat 12 for 28 ( 43% ) with optional dirt sprinters who won 23-47 days back & are 5-1 or less ( positive ROI ), and we'll give this one the nod. #6 LONG HAUL BAY completed the exacta in his only "2nd off the break" start, and barn is 5:2-3-0 with that type in dirt sprints right here ( $4 & $11 ). Reunion with familiar pilot should help matters. #5 PHI BETA EXPRESS comes in today off a lifetime best numero and must be included.

 

Race  8 

1.Vegas Kitten

2.Strike Me Down

3.Coltandmississippi

#2 VEGAS KITTEN has blinkers added for today's second off the layoff go-round, & is eligible to move forward a bit. Mild choice. #4 STRIKE ME DOWN is 4:0-3-1 on the gramma, but the figs are nice and there's a touch of class here. Motion ( a Nordic 2 for 37 at the meet ) has a 10:4-3-1 stats behind him with those going long on the lawn here at this level off L/O's of 67 days or under ( < 7-1 ). The connections of #6 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI utilized the full 18 character allotment permitted by the jockey club, but elongated monikers aside, this one is available for purchase for the first time, and is another one with some black type.  OFF TURF: 5-4-6-3-11(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Up the Ante 

2.Raging Bull ( Fr )

3.Maraud

You can feel free ( as my buddy Gerard tells me ) to put an upwards arrow next to the turf outings of the #1 UP THE ANTE ( 66-66-83-95 ), and one wonders where her roof is. Inside speed is dangerous here ( especially if the dogs are down ), and we'll pin our hopes to another wire job. #3 RAGING BULL (FR) punched through late in the game to get up in time on 8/3 and is your deserving fave. #9 MARAUD missed by a heartbreaking honker vs. slightly tougher in last, but seems to be a bit stronger over that softer going, so we'll leave beneath --- for now.  OFF TURF: 9-6-7-8-2

 

Race  10

1.Love My Honey

2.Nonna Madeline

3.Cassie's Dreamer

Grade One 7 furlong Spinaway coming up here, and y'all know how we feel about these jammies !  #12 LOVE MY HONEY overcame a bit of trouble at the onset to win first time out for Maker, and 384 Tommy tells us that there's ample room for improvement here. Runner up from that day got the job done next time out, improving her speed figure by 10 points in the process, and of course, we love the draw. #5 NONNA MADELINE improved by more than 20% from the first start to the next, and did so despite being hiked up in class. Sensible. #1 CASSIE'S DREAMER may roll along late to spice things up.  NOTE:AS OF 12:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Yoshida ( Jpn ) 

2.Hence

3.Seeking the Soul

One of the biggest races of the meet is upon us, the $750,000 Woodward Stakes. For some history on this event ( won an amazing four straight times by the immortal Kelso ) please go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodward_Stakes .   As for the race itself...   #1 YOSHIDA (JPN) trues the dirt for the first time today, and while we were unable to unearth much family infor in regards to the sand, we see Sunday Silence in there -- which is nice ( gunga lagunga ). Colt has won a Grade 1 ( going two turns ), won with Rosario, and is a neck shy of a 3 for 3 mark when starting from the innermost three slots. That's reason enough for us to use. #5 HENCE sure doesn't need to take his track with him, does he? 15 starts...11 different locales...wins on 4 different strips...on both wet and fast tracks! Cool beans !  Lone "3rd off the layoff try yielded a win in a career best performance, and Santana always tries for the minor spoils. #10 SEEKING THE SOUL has cracked the century mark in four straight and owns a win over the strip. Tough to exclude.

 

Race  12 

1.Savannah Belle

2.Santa Monica ( GB ) 

3.Onthemoonagain (Fr)

#2 SAVANNAH BELLE essentially galloped around the track to collect $1,116 in an off the turf event 20 days ago, but posted an adjusted 92.2 in the start just before that, and as teh last two turf tries were career best, who knows where the ceiling is? Lynch ( from a minuscule sampling ) is 2 for 3 with Saratoga based graded turf stayers off breaks of 33 days or lower at 7-1 or less ( $11 & $18 ). #5 SANTA MONICA (GB) has won 2 of 3 since arriving in the States, and Brown is 3-7 with local runners fitting this criteria ( 42-84 days ) who won their last & are 6-1 or beneath today ( $10, $2 & $4 ). #3 ONTHEMOONAGAIN (FR) completes the Hot Dogs/Bangers & Mash/Escargot triple based on her exceptional overall record and back class.  OFF TURF: 6-8-9(MTO)-4-5

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   70-369   ( $727.10 )     Beatable Favorites:   7-38  ( 18.4% )  Favorites Win %: 131-369 ( 35.5% )( As of Saturday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017