KevinCoxItem

 

Another washout of a day with four of the six grass races coming off the sod, and 6 chalks getting their photos taken on the day.

Four days left here as we look to finish up strongly !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/31

 

Race  1

1.Chiclet's Dream 

2.Walk of Fame

3.Barrel of Destiny

#1 CHICLET'S DREAM has burned some money in crashing the party in her quartet of starts ( average odds of $3.43-1 ), but Brown has won with half of his 3rd off the L.O runners of this ilk who hit the board in last & are 4-1 or lower today ( $8, $5 & $3 ). #7 WALK OF FAME was freshened up a bit since finishing in the back of the pack down at Elmont, and that race is proving to be a key one, as seven runners have come back to amass a 7:3-2-0-1 in their next calls to the post ( from six different heats ). Said horseys averaged a 6 point increase in the Beyer department, and this one could spice things up a bit. #3 BARREL OF DESTINY split a stakes field at 32-1 in a career best effort three weeks back & Mr. Hertler's charge must be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-3-4

 

Race  2

1.Banker's Island

2.Apartfromthecrowd

3.Shamsaan

#3 BANKER'S ISLAND has been a completely different animal in the last three starts, and from an itty bitty sampling, Dilger is 2 for 2 with mid level dirt stayers off breaks of 7 weeks or less ( $9 & $10 ). Meeeeeekest of selections in a grotesque affair. #4 APARTFROMTHECROWD showed a bit of late hoof in his first start off a 16 1/2 month hibernation, and colt is now dropped for the third straight time while having blinkers affixed. #1 SHAMSAAN is 1 for 2 when breaking from the inside ( and it was a dirt route ), and re-adds the blinkers today, with which he's had good success. 

 

Race   3

1.Contessa Entry

2.One More Tom

3.My Mr. Wonderful

We're digging both halves of the Contessa entry here. #1 THERESA'S BOY has gone up and down like the Cyclone over her last septet, so today should be a goodie, right? If only the game were that simple. Roller coasters aside, 10% clan is 3 for 8 with locally based maiden claiming dirt dashers who were OUT of the money < 45 days ago at 10-1 or undah, with mutuels of $10, $20 & $10. The interesting thing is that they're worse w/those who were ITM in last. In regards to the other half -- #1A CROSS MULTIPLY -- barn is 2-10 when going green to brown with maiden claiming stock off breaks of 13 days or less ( $14 & $7 ). #3 ONE MORE TOM drops to his lowest level yet while having the hood put on for the first time AND getting his 7th different pilot in as many excursions. This one went for $150,000 at auction, so caveat emptor. #4 MY MR. WONDERFUL has broken on top in 5 of 6 & is another who has never been entered this cheaply. 

 

Race  4 

1.Rymska

2.Penjade ( Fr )

3.Mlibu Stacy 

#6 RYMSKA has a ton of back class, is 2 for 2 off "true" layoffs, and Brown has a 2-4 mark with Saratoga based optional turf routers off sabbaticals of 135 to 405 days jockeyed by Irad. Appears powerful. #5 PENJADE (FR) hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but is another who has faced some salty critters, and owns a couple'a minor placings in both starts over this course. Gal has a win & third from as many tries off the shelf, and hard to fault anyone leaning this way. #4 MALIBU STACY has nice speed and can last for a share.  OFF TURF: 2-1-6-3-4

 

Race   5

1.Paradise Retained

2.Princess Trina

3.Miss Leah Angel 

There are three very small, but very decent DRF Formulator stats in play here for my own personal hell --- a turf dash --- so let's get straight to it. #4 PARADISE RETAINED: Jason Servis is never nervous with his second time starters ( < 62 days ) in mdspt. sprints on the sod at 7-1 or less, as he's 4:3-1-0 with 'em ( $10, $3 & $5 ). #3 PRINCESS TRINA: 17% Nicks is 2 for 4 with 2nd timers going brown to green in maiden special weight filly sprints ( $4 & $6 ). #2 MISS LEAH ANGEL ( GB ): Frigid Motion ( 2-36 ) is 2-7 with first time starters fitting all these exact parameters ( $15 & $35 ).  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-9-11(AE)-14(AE)-6

 

Race  6 

1.Scarf It Down

2.Bar None

3.Halloween Horror

#3 SCARF IT DOWN ( 3:1-1-0 here ) drops down to the 16K level this afternoon, and 20% 'Miah is 4-10 with Saratoga runners of this ilk who missed the $ 17-35 days back and are below the 12-1 watermark today. #2 BAR NONE will be led over by a 20% shotcaller who's 3-10 with mid level dirt sprinters at The Spa who hit the money in last ( $7, $13 & $3 ). #1 HALLOWEEN HORROR rounds out the tri. ( NOTE: This was amended as of 5:29 P.M. Wednesday )

 

Race  7

1.Say It Softly

2.Big Birthday

3.French Empire

#1 SAY IT SOFTLY split the field in the lone local try ( 65.2 adjusted Beyer ), and goes turf to dirt today for D.W. Timid choice. #5 BIG BIRTHDAY has posted back to back solid figs and went for $575,000 at auction, so obviously the connections are still expecting some good things. Must use, but may be a tad overbet. #7 FRENCH EMPIRE has closed out the triple in both starts to date, and we like the versatility shown as one of them was on the gramma against the boys.

 

Race  8 

1.Layla

2.Dancing All Night

3.Special Relativity

#5 LAYLA may have me on my knees begging for Domino's money should she not be fully cranked in this first start of the looooong absence, but new trainer knows how to have 'em ready for comebackers. We'll give the nod to a couple of Goodfellas in Stall and Saez. #10 DANCING ALL NIGHT has been setting money ablaze thus far ( 6:1-4-0, with the score coming at 7/5 & the losses being at an average of $2.92-1. Shug tries the hood in order to shake things up today, and while we'll be including, beware that this one is likely to be overbet once again, and eye cups ain't always an automatic panacea. #4 SPECIAL  RELATIVITY has won 3 of 6, including a tally over what we would consider a slightly tougher bunch; must use. 

 

Race  9 

1.Ready For Rye

2.Rocket Heat

3.Bold Thunder

#5 READY FOR RYE hasn't displayed much of late, but Tom is 2 for 6 with those going short over the blades at this level ( 17-35 days ) with mutuels of $6 & $52. Slight edge in a wide open feature. #3 ROCKET HEAT is 5:3-2-0 since mid February and owns a win over the strip. Always dig when the pre-claim jock comes back. #2 BOLD THUNDER has a touch of class, and eight year old "horse" ( Don't ever give 'em up, buddy ! ) may show enough speed in the reunion with Carmouche to land a share. OFF TURF:8-3-1-7-5  NOTE: AS OF 10:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-3-1.

 

Race  10

1.She'sakittykat

2.Heaven's Creation

3.Problem Solving

#8 SHE'SAKITTYAKAT was clearly 2nd best in the most recent, and she did so despite the fact that she's no fan of being on the inside ( 4:1-1-0 when breaking from the outermost two posts...9:0-2-2 otherwise ). Well, she's drawn ideally today, and buddy Jimmy ( who made us look like Einstein when getting home a $98 winner a week and a half ago ) is 9:3-2-2-2 ( 100% superfecta rate ) with mid level dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 between 8 & 38 days back at 11-1 or under ( $12, $10 & $23 ). Underrated 8% trainer has more than doubled that rate of late, as he's won with 4 of his last 24 starts, spotting them at three different venues. #4 HEAVEN'S CREATION ( one half of the uncoupled Diodoro entry ) has crashed the fiesta in four straight, and will likely be sending here. #5 PROBLEM SOLVING is at an all time low & picks up Rosario.  

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   68-359   ( $717.80 )     Beatable Favorites:   7-38  ( 18.4% )  Favorites Win %: 126-360 ( 34.3% )( As of Friday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017