KevinCoxItem

Just one on the day yesterday as we maintain our flat bet profit for the stand while essentially securing another successful stand in the "Beatable Favorite" category.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #7 Paz the Wine ( should the #14 be scratched )  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, THIS IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.  Race 9 - #6 Mintd ( Ire )


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Saratoga - 8/30

 

Race  1

1.Satin Sheets

2.Cat's Halo

3.Gypsy Jo

#3 SATIN SHEETS was a well beaten but well clear runner up in the lone second off the break attempt, and owns a win & a placing from her only two outings when available for purchase. Looking good, here. #1 CAT'S HALO is 2 for 19 @ this trip & just 1-25 at other dx.'s, and is reunited with Dylan Davis, who was WRONGLY disqualified here on Sunday. #4 GYPSY JO encountered quite the logjam in last, and should put forth a much better effort in today's 2nd off the L/O try, with a cleaner trip, of course. 

 

Race  2

1.Brown Entry

2.Argonne

3.Bail Out

Very rarely do we tell you to bet "place" in this column, ( especially with a solid favorite ) but as we like both halves of the entry, that's what we'll recommend. ( For those a bit confused, place prices pay exponentially better if both halves run 1-2 ). #1A STRATEGIC OUTLOOK is backed by a perfect 5 for 5 trainer stat w/ second time starters who were ITM 36-78 days back and are now in a mdspwt. turf route right here. Additionally, the #1 FRONTIER MARKET has a 3 fer 5 DRF Formulator angle in play with 2nd off the shelf 'Toga runners of this ilk who were ITM 13-43 days back & are below the 9-2 watermark today. #11 ARGONNE was DQ'd when last seen on the 5th of July, but still has some decent figaros behind him. Another shot with Double D. The lone start over firm ground really stands out for the #2 BAIL OUT ( 89.1 adjusted # ), and would be no surprise here.  OFF TURF: 7-1-1A-12-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:43, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Matty's Magnum

2.Naples Legacy

3.Radiant Beauty

#6 MATTY'S MAGNUM has a win & a runner up finish in her only two starts when available for purchase, and gets Johnny V. in the irons today. Slight edge in a race that we really don't have a good read on. #1 NAPLES LEGACY is confidently hiked up in class for the first off the claim start by Maker, and although both turf tries left a lot to be desired, neither of them was over firm ground, so let's give this one another chance, shall we? #5 RADIANT BEAUTY went pillar to post with the "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump in last, and as there were no takers that day, she is jacked up in class a bit here. Logical.  OFF TURF: 6-2-7-5-1

 

Race  4 

1.Devine Entry 

2.Stoney Bennett

3.Grandpa Knows Best

Six pack signed on here with several available for purchase for the first time ( it's that time of the meet ), and we've unearthed some small ( but decent ) Formulator stats. Let's get right to 'em. #5 DEVINE ENTRY: Rice is a perfect 4 for 4 when putting her 3rd off the L/O dirt dashers in with a tag for the 1st time ( 5-2 or under ). Note this one's 2:1-1-0 mark when in tandem with Irad. #6 STONEY BENNETT: Linda owns a tidy 2 fer 3 ledger when spotting second off the break sprinters on the sand, and putting them up for grabs for the 1st time ( $3 & $10 ). #4 GRANDPA KNOWS BEST: McPeek owns a 2 for 6 mark with third off the hiatus F/T/Tag runners on the dirt ( $7 & $20 ). 

 

Race   5

1.Youth Gone Wild

2.Reconsider It

3.Quietly Quick ( AE )

Go ahead and feel free to draw a line through the most recent foray of #10 YOUTH GONE WILD. Gal had never raced on the brown stuff before, and in all probability, was kept in the race that day in order to "get preference" for the next time she entered. Now that being said, this one earned an adjusted figure of 60 in the prior outing, and simply by scrolling up and down the running lines of today's entrants, you can see how comparable said number is. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the barn door ! ), the best adjusted "firm" figs in this one's history show that the 4 year old can do even better than the number we just wrote about. If there was ever a race for Abel & Ubillo to get off the duck, this is it. #2 RECONSIDER IT is slooowwwwwly approaching "professional maiden" status, but has a decent overall body of work, and at the very least should be considered for the "unders". #13 QUIETLY QUICK (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but would be taking the biggest drop in the game today, and C-Squared is 4 for 11 ( $2.36 ROI ) when giving his turfers this kind of drop off sabbaticals of 50-100 days.  OFF TURF: 14(AE)-6-12(AE)-4-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 PAZ THE WINE ( should the #14 be scratched )  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, THIS IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.  NOTE: AS OF 12:52, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST OUR SELECTIONS ARE 6-8-1.

 

Race  6 

1.Barhanpour ( Fr )

2.Poshsky

3.Your Only Man

We positively love the #1 BARHANPOUR (FR) today. Fisher charge closed out the tri with an honest effort in the lone try when going from jumps to flats, ( behind a next out winner ) and the place horse from that day came back to get the job done next time out. 18% conditioner is a groovy 14:5-0-3 with mid level turfers off breaks of 43 days or less running at = or < distance than the prior start ( 20-1 or undah ). The mutuels for that sampling are a whopping $15, $11, $34, $6 & $21, and there's a sub category of 5:2-0-1 w/ those entering off a steeplechase event. For those wondering what we put into our writeups, in order to ascertain all the specifics for this study, we had to look at each horse in the survey individually, which took us about 25-30 minutes, and the entire race took us over an hour. We'll make this 20-1 shot our play of the day. #2 POSHSKY has been a part of the super in four straight ( under three different sets of circumstances ) & is a lively 8:3-2-0 @ the trip. #6 YOUR ONLY MAN always gives a good account of himself & must be left in the picture.  OFF TURF: 6-7-11-14(MTO)-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:54, DUE TO THE TARCK BEING FAST & THE RACE BEING A SPRINT, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 14(MTO)-1-13(AE)

 

Race  7

1.True Gold

2.Prince of New York

3.Honorable Hero

A baker's dozen field 'o firsters to sort through here, so of course, we looked into some trainer/sire stats...  #3 TRUE GOLD will be led over today by Charlie Baker, who is 2 for 4 with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at 10-1 or less ( $10 & $17 ). Now, before you say "Kevin, is four starts really a good barometer?" Well, consider for a moment that when we say "all this exact criteria", that's taking into account distance, age, sex, class, track, odds, AND being a first time starter ( seven categories ). Think of it as a piece of wood that you whittle down to a baseball bat with a nice sweet spot. Or as Frank Burns once said to a Korean sculptor who proudly displayed a simple piece of wood to him: "That's just a 2 x 4."  To which the man smilingly responded, "Used to be round." Anyway, the payoffs for the above survey were $10 & $17, and this one's dam was 9-25 going short on the sand ( 580K ), the maternal grandsire was 6 fer 20 doing the same ( making a lot of bread ), and mommie's mommy was 1 for 3 @ this dance. Oh yeah...fella is a half to 3-11 dirt dasher ( 58 large ), and Gold for the King, who was a whopping 6-14 in this kinda deal, netting 528 big ones. The more we type...  #7 PRINCE OF NEW YORK hails from 'Miah's barn who happens to have won with half of their six firsters within all of these precise parameters ( 10-1 or beneath ), w/the winners coming back ( $17 & $10 x 2 ). January bred was dropped by a dam who was 3-12 going short over the brown stuff ( $135,620 earned ) while being sired by Cairo Prince, who was 2 fer 2 doing the same ( a maiden score & the Remsen -- one of my buddy Gerard's favorite races ). Paternal granddam was 6-13 @ this trip ( 241K + ), and the "muddah's muddah" was 2 for 4 under alike conditions. Two siblings to have gone this dist./surf. cumulatively went 2 for 5, but were cheapies. #4 HONORABLE HERO is trained by Gary ( 10% ) Contessa, who is 2-9 with runners of this ilk. They came back $13 & $40, with the latter winning at this stand. 

 

Race  8 

1.Birthday Gift

2.Lulu's Pom Pom

3.Ohmygollymsmolly ( AE )

#7 BIRTHDAY GIFT has not beaten one home in her last quartet, but one was an off the turfer, two were run over soft ground, and the fourth was in the goo. The only other start ? A turf dash run over firm footing where she was all out to get up by a sliver while paying $179 to win. Barn doesn't win much, but they've won with both of their turf sprinting "winners" right here off breaks of 15-28 days, and guess what ? -- both were with Maragh. This is the type of race where I can envision something silly happening. #1 LULU'S POM POM has lots of speed, and Clement is a sweet 7:4-1-1-1 with locally based allowance sprinters on the sod off L/O's of 17-35 days ( $6, $6, $10 & $15 ). #14 OHMYGOLLYMSMOLLY (AE) is on the outside looking in, but invaders from Finger Lakes have been doing quite well here, and this one has been part of the superfecta in 3 of 4; may spice things up.  OFF TURF: 9-12-5-1A(AE)-13(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 1:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.O'Malley

2.Dogtag

3.Miss Technicality

Difficult to believe that this Brooklyn boy is putting the #5 O'MALLEY on top here. ( For those non-baseball fans, Walter O'Malley moved the Dodgers out of Brooklyn 60 years ago, and to have heard the stories from my father & grandfather, his name was a curse word for many years afterwards. ) Bay gal handled the first time turf/first time stretchout very nicely when procuring the sheepskin down in Wilmington on 8/8, and pedigree tells us that the result was no aberration. Jersey Joe can never be discounted in these "turf routing stakes", and we'll bite at 15-1. #1 DOGTAG ( by 'War Front', out of 'Diamond Necklace' ) was moved up to third via DQ in the debut, and is MUCH better bred for a turf route than a dirt sprint; second half ( AND higher priced ) of the uncoupled Brown entry. #4 MISS TECHNICALITY came along nicely to get the lioness' share of the pot first time out, and five runners from that affair returned to amass a 5:2-1-0 mark in their subsequent outings ( from four different races ), w/a negligible average Beyer improvement of .6 pts.  OFF TURF: 4-6-3(MTO)-10-11(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 MINTD (IRE) fills the bill as Chad Brown is 0-6 when being given a horse and spotting then in an ungraded turf race while administering Lasix for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 1:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Lem Me Tel Ya

2.Santo Antonio

3.Suas

#8 LEM ME TEL YA ( named after the owner ) showed zippo when having the hood added & stretching out when last seen, but note that the adjusted speed #'s from both dirt attempts were 64.3 & 69.3, so is an obvious contender if fully cranked up, and judging by the recent bullet of 48 & 1 -- he is !! #11 SANTO ANTONIO ( Saint Anthony is the patron saint of lost things https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_of_Padua ) has yet to finish out of the super in four lifetime starts, and a couple of those were versus stakes foes. The winner from last came back to get the job done, and while this one is very logical at 10-1, you need to check the changes as he's cross entered manana. #7 SUAS ( 2nd part of the uncoupled Rudy Rod tandem ) has eye cups added after acting a bit green last month & is a deserving chalk. 

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   67-350   ( $712.50 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-38  ( 18.4% )  Favorites Win %: 120-350 ( 34.3% )( As of Thursday morning )

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 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017