KevinCoxItem

 

Just a couple of chalky winners here on Sunday as we maintain our flat bet profit heading into the final week's action ! ( A miracle, considering the 50 off the turfers we've had so far. ) 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/29 - Closing Week

 

Race  1

1.First Friday

2.Dark Gemini

3.Wild Dynaformer

#7 FIRST FRIDAY is lightly raced, but has a win & a third from as many jump races over firm ground and gets in extremely light while still running "clean" ( no Lasix ). Slight edge in the last steeplechase race of the meet. #3 DARK GEMINI is as steady as they come, having hit the board in 10 of 11, while going 4:1-3-0 in steeplechase events. Major contender. #5 WILD DYNAFORMER put forth his best jumping effort yet in last for a trainer still figuring things out at this game. 

 

Race  2

1.Fingerpaint

2.Miss Kapinator

3.Salt Pond

In this nondescript field of maiden claimers, we're really digging the prospects of #9 FINGERPAINT. Filly drops for the second straight time in today's second off the L/O try, and note that the career best # came in a similar layoff spot. 15% trainer is an absolute "Terra" with maiden claiming dirt sprinters who finished off the board 17-35 days ago & are 10-1 or less, as he's a whopping 7 for 18 ( 39% ) in that regards, with the winners coming back $7, $3, $8, $4, $4, $5 & $22. The amazing part about this study is that he is 0-6 with those who were IN the money last time out. Expect this one to be more forwardly placed with Carmouche taking over today, and the more we type, the more we like. #7 MISS KAPINATOR is anothefr 2md off the shelf runner who catches a glib surface for just the second time. #6 SALT POND was a troubled, game, well beaten, but well clear runner up in the last, but Graham Motion is a woeful 1 for 35 on the stand, so we'll relegate to the "unders".

 

Race   3

1.Paddydunalot

2.Anne Dupree

3.No Deal

#11 PADDYDUNALOT showed some early hoof in the comebacker before fading at 35-1, but methinks that route may have been used to: 1-Put some bottom into her, and 2-Put a false running line on the page to dissuade potential purchasers for today's sprint. Interesting to see Irad ride, no? #6 ANNE DUPREE takes the biggest drop in the game today for connections that teamed up for a big win here on Saturday -- or so I hear. #3 NO DEAL went seven wide in an eight horse field last out in finishing 2nd, and is a sensible 1-2-3 playah today.  OFF TURF: 5-3-6-4-9

 

Race  4 

1.Wet Your Whistle

2.Herecomesyourman

3.Financial System

#7 WET YOUR WHISTLE showed zilch in the latest, but that was an off the turfer, and not only is this one back on the sod, but stretches out as well. We have an affinity for failing dirt dashers going long on the gramma, and when we see that Trombetta is 2 for 6 when doing such with those returning off breaks of 36 days or less ( 25-1 or under ), we're enticed even more -- especially with the payoffs of $50 & $6. #8 HERECOMESYOURMAN has been ITM in 8 of 9, and given his proclivity for grabbing the minor spoils ( 18:1-6-3 ), we'll put him there once again. #1A FINANCIAL SYSTEM has won both starts to date -- improving tremendously in the first foray vs. winners, and that's nothing to sneeze at.  OFF TURF: 5-1A-10-2-3

 

Race   5

1.Chillinwithfriends

2.Zip It Jess 

3.Charming Cara

#6 CHILLINWITHFRIENDS hung up a gaudy fig when showing in the overture, and achieved that after encountering some trouble at the start. Runner up finisher from that heat came back to get her photo taken, and Rudy ( 20% day to day ) is 11:4-2-2 with second timers fitting these parameters ( ITM in 52 days or less ) at 7-1 or lower ( $3, $15, $4 & $8 ). #1 ZIP IT JESS ( cross entered Monday, so check the changes ) is better bred for the brown than the green, and the debut over the blades was pretty darn nifty. Logical. #9 CHARMING CARA had a troubled onset to the career starter, but showed a touch of early hoof before packing it in at the halfway point. 402 Tomlinson figure and a better slot have us giving this one another chance. 

 

Race  6 

1.Sensible Myth

2.Tres Charmant

3.Shrink

#8 SENSIBLE MYTH is available for purchase for the first time today and has a nice assemblage of speed figures while still running without the miracle drug. Mild choice in another ( for us ) loathesome turf dash. #4 TRES CHARMANT posted a lifetime best fig. in the lone "2nd off the shelf" go round, and won her only start here. #5 SHRINK has actually improved since being transferred over to good guy John Hertler ( not something you ordinarily see when going from a 20% to a 5% conditioner ), as this one has outran her odds in the last two, while doing okay in the speed figure department. LAst start when available for sale resulted in a win, and Leparoux has had winners in back to back days as of this writing ( including an earlier one for this shedrow ).  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-9-2  NOTE: AS OF 3:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Y'all Wicked

2.Fair Regis

3.She's Delightful

#2 Y'ALL WICKED has essentially gone pillar to post in both starts over the sand, ( the last -- with Lasix added -- was VASTLY improved in the numero department ), and 'Miah is a tight 3 fer 4 with local allowance sprinters on the dirtwho tallied less than 57 days back & are <12-1 ( $8, $12 & $18 ). Grab her by the tailkto get the glory. #4 FAIR REGIS has gone 9:4-3-1-1 since transitioning to Falcone's barn, so right off the bat, this one is an automatic inclusion. That aside, there's a baby DRF stat which tells us that the aforementioned shotcaller is 2-5 with those within all these parameters at 4-1 or beneath ( 21-43 days ). We'll toss in the #9 SHE'S DELIGHTFUL, as it's interesting to see Javy stick around after the recent lackluster effort. 

 

Race  8 

1.Aveenu Malcainu

2.The Caretaker

3.Candis Desire

#9 AVEENU MALCAINU ( a Jewish prayer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avinu_Malkeinu ) gets some much deserved class relief today in order to regain some confidence, and the blinker experiment was short lived, as they're left in tha tack room today by 'Miah. Over the last 60 months, this barn is 3 for 4 when doing just that that to their dirt sprinters off breaks of 51-121 days ( $15, $6 & $5 ). Let's get this one home, for a nice fella ( and Jai Alai fan ) in Al. #4 THE CARETAKER shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, with one of those wins coming right here. McL.( 20% batting average ) more than doubles that rate ( 13-31 )w/optional dirt dashers who wom their last & are 7-1 or lower ( positive ROI ). #3 CANDID DESIRE is a reclaim by Sciacca, and that's saying something as it doesn't happen all too often. 

 

Race  9 

1.Seanow

2.Joyful Heart

3.Swamp Rat

Been a tough meet for Pletcher here, but feel that he's got a live shot in today's feature, the 'With Anticipation' stakes. His charge ( the #5 SEANOW ) went pillar to post when touching the grass & going 2X for the first time, and as The Toddster has a three headed monster in here, we like that Johnny sticks aboard this one. Barn is a nice 2 for 5 with Saratoga based turf stayers coming in off a maiden score ( 19-1 or lower ) with mutuels of $5 & $7. Oh yeah --- ALL those races were THIS race ! #2 JOYFUL HEART has been very professional in both starts thus far ( including the July maiden breaker ), and pedigree says to us that today's initial stretchout shouldn't be of a concern. Major factor. #9 SWAMP RAT rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-2-9-3-6(MTO)-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:28, DUE TO AN ERROR, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.The Sheik of Araby

2.Jimmy Jazz

3.Milardo

We are very curious about the #9 THE SHEIK OF ARABY ( a 1921 song that was later done by The Beatles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sheik_of_Araby ) in today's nitecap. Gelding has beaten just three home in two stars ( both at double digit odds ), hasn't been seen since just before Christmas, lost his pistachios after the last, has questionable turf breeding, and yet --- lures Johnny V. to ride. Why ? Well, Dilger ( 17% when hitting that alarm clock in the morning ) is a sublime 8:4-2-1-1 ( 100% superfecta rate ) with turfers coming back off hibernations of 167-337 days at 13-1 or beneath, with payoffs of $8, $6, $11 & $10. Oh yeah ... dam was 3-17 in turf routes, banking nearly half'a mil, and this one is a half to one woh won 1 of 4 at this dance ( just undah 50K ). Sire was a turf sprinting specialist who finished 2nd the only time going two turns, paternal granddam was a check earning fool who went 1-8 @ this trip, and lawdy...what line are we on here? #5 JIMMY JAZZ gets a tremendous jockey switch today, can no longer have babies, and there's no hedging with 10% Bush when it comes to maiden special weight turf routers off L/O's of 47-93 days ( 13-1 or < ) as he is 2 for 7 with that type ( $10 & $17 ). #11 MILARDO closed nicely first time out and closes out our Wednesday.  OFF TURF: 3-6-13(MTO)-7-12 

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   66-340   ( $703.10 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-38  ( 18.4% )  Favorites Win %: 116-340 ( 34.1% )( As of Weds. morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017