KevinCoxItem 

In a bit of a funk here, but we look to close out the penultimate week in strong fashion, as we'll have a flat bet profit heading into Wednesday !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #6 Short Pour ( If the #12 scratches )


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Saratoga - 8/27

 

Race  1

1.Just Right

2.Red Zinger 

3.Pier Forty

We're seeing this as just a two horse affair. The #1 was JUST RIGHT when having the hood added in latest, as he tripled the speed figure from the 7/12 debut. The Toddster is 3 for 8 with those fitting ALL these precise parameters who hit the board last out. #3 RED ZINGER is another who improved from the first start to the second and should be no worse than 2nd here, for all you place bettors. #6 PIER FORTY ( Out of "Safety Net", and how fitting, as Pier 40 in NYC houses a sports facility which has, yes...trapeze arts ! Nothing gets by this New Yorker -- especial one who's Mounted Unit used to turn out just a short trot from there ! ) undergoes a bevy of changes today -- Turf to dirt, 2 turns to 1, blinkers on, and a new pilot. Would only need to find one of those palatable to procure the show dough. 

 

Race  2

1.Sargeant Drive

2.No Man's Land

3.Junonia

#5 SARGEANT DRIVE comes in today off back to back career best Beyers, and we like how he was a bit more forwardly placed in the latest. Logical. #8 NO  MAN'S LAND is third off the shelf this afternoon and gets a tremendous jockey change; live runner catching firm ground for just the second time. #2  JUNONIA has yet to miss a super in any of his flat starts, with the sharpest effort coming after a steeplechase try. Leparoux having just an awful meet, so we'll leave underneath.  OFF TURF: 2-9-7-4-6

 

Race  3

1.Merger Arbitrage

2.Big Mischief

3.Blame the Gods

#1A MERGER ARBITRAGE was progressing along nicely last year before being sent to the sidelines for one reason or another, but pre-layoff pilot returns, and Brown gets the green with turf stayers taking this kind of drop off breaks of 63 days or more at 6-1 or undah ( $3.76 ROI ). #2 BIG MISCHIEF ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) displayed a nice lil' "Z" pattern in the career starter on Independence Day ( losing 4 1/4 from the quarter to the top of the lane before regaining 2 3/4 lengths from that point to the line. That's a lot of action for s six furlong race, and now this one has more ground to sort things out while switching to the meet's leading rider. Watch out, suckah's. #5 BLAME THE GODS is monstrously bred for this trip.  OFF TURF: 1A-4-1-7-9

 

Race  4 

1.Saratoga Giro

2.Eye Luv Lulu

3.Weekend Hideaway

We're going to blast off with the 3...2...1 triple here.  #3 SARATOGA GIRO comes in today off a career best performance, and Finger Lakes shippers have been knocking it out of the park this meet. 17% conditioner is a whopping 9-20 ( 45% ) with allowance dirt dashers off absences of 34-68 days ( 10-1 or less ). Could go all the way. #2 EYE LUV LULU has hit the board in 4 of 5 here and from an itty bitty sampling, Servis is 2 for 2 w/3rd off the shelf sprinters on the sand at this level @ 9-2 or under. #1 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY has that lovely type of "declining" record here that we dig so much ( 11:5-2-1 ) and has fared admirably when breaking from the pine as well. 

 

Race   5

1.Mobridge

2.Wicked Freud

3.Changewilldoyagood

#2 MOBRIDGE is but a neck shy of having won 4 of 5, and horse for the course is 3:1-1-1 over the inner, while also owning a 2-5 ledger when breaking from the inside two posts, compared to being 5-19 from the three hole on out. #4 WICKED FREUD has been a popular item at the claim box of late, leaving a forwarding address after his last three starts, and is now dropped 15 large after the most recent purchase. Seems to be a fringe player of late, so we'll slide him beneath. #6 CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD finished second in his only two outings when entered for 35K or less and has enough zip to land a share.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-1A-6

 

Race  6 

1.Bam Bam Blu

2.Pagliacci

3.Stolen Pistol

#6 BAM BAM BLU shoots for the hat trick today, and although no "Pebbles" ( who preferred going long ), Jason "Miracle Man" Servis is a poyfect 5 for 5 with allowance turf dashers who got the job done 23-54 days back, with one of those wins coming right here ( $8.22 ROI ). We envision being all "Giggles" at the finish. The prospects of #8 PAGLIACCI are nothing to laugh at here. Four year old has been part of the super in 5 of 7 on the gramma, has done his best work over firm ground, and Ortiz has really picked it up after a slow start. #3 STOLEN PISTOL has won his last duet over firm turf, and 19% trainer is doubly Sharp with those fitting all relevant parameters, as he's 4-11 in that regards.  OFF TURF: 8-4-1-10-12(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Riff Raff 

2.Sal the Turtle

3.Fleet Irish

#5 RIFF RAFF has posted his best troika of Beyer figs in his last three starts, and as this one was claimed for $40,000 in the last & is in for just a quarter today, there's a few things you should know... If this one wins, the owner's share is $27,500. The trainer and jock gets $2,750 each, so that leaves $22,000. The owner hs paid about $3,300 in day rate & $400 in vet/shoe bills, so that leaves $18,300. The only way this one shows a profit if claimed today is with a win ( $3,300 profit ). So either they love the animal, or something's amiss. Take a peek in the paddock. #3 SAL THE TURTLE hung up a monstah numbah two fortnights ago, and must be left in the mix because of such. #9 FLEET IRISH has won both starts since being freshened up, and is confidently hiked in class once again. Gelding likes this dx. ( 3-9 ) and closed out the triple in the lone "3rd off the L/O" try. 

 

Race  8 

1.Rose's Vision

2.Ceevee

3.Westerland ( GB )

#2 CEEVEE has improved w/each and every start, so who really knows where his roof is. Turf has been speed favoring on Friday and Saturday, and that's enough reason to give this one the slim edge in the Better Talk Now. #5 ROSE'S VISION finished just in front of a next out winner north of the border, and picks up Jose, who's been rolling of late. #9 WESTERLAND (GB) re-adds the blinkers today & could perk up in the 3rd off the L/O try.  OFF TURF: 3-1-10-7-4(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Niko's Dream

2.Tappanzee

3.Corey Scores ( AE )

We are going to give you two scenarios worth of selections for the week's finale. If the #12 COREY SCORES (AE) draws into the body of the race, then our selections will be #2 NIKO'S DREAM, #7 TAPPANZEE ( yet ANOTHER bridge name this meet with a Saratoga theme ) & Corey Scores. If that horse DOESN'T make it over to the races today, then we will go #2 NIKO'S  DREAM -- #5 EVAN'S NICE NOW -- #3 MISS DIAGNOSE BEATABLE FAVORITE: If the #12 doesn't get in the gate, then the #6 SHORT POUR fills the bill in this area.  OFF TURF: 14(AE)-2-7-5-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  


Saratoga       ( Current )   64-331   ( $691.90 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-37  ( 18.9% )  Favorites Win %: 115-331 ( 34.7% )

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 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites  12-39  ( 30.7% )  Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017