KevinCoxItem

 

Quack, quack !! 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #8 Joe's Smoking Gun  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, THE #8 IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


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Saratoga - 8/26

 

Race  1

1.Niko Strong

2.Espresso Caliente

3.Engineers Report

#6 NIKO STRONG has lots of zip, has won 2 of the last three when available from purchase, and 'Miah ( 25% on the norm ) is a sharp 17:7-5-1w/local runners of this ilk who crashed the party 23-48 days back & are 10-1 or less ( $5.43 ROI ) #8 ESPRESSO CALIENTE finds himself at this lowest level to date, and 18% Gullo is 3 for 10 with mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala 8-40 days ago, and are now dropping in class 50% or more. #7 ENGINEERS REPORT has only beaten two home in as many tries, but is another at an all time low and could perk up with his first fast track outing in six tries. 

 

Race  2

1.Irish Intuition

2.Blahnik

3.Miss Rombauer

We're gonna try and dial in the Brooklyn area code here with a little 7-1-8 action.  #7 IRISH INTUITION didn't show much in an off the turf event here three weeks ago, but sometimes trainers will keep horses entered to maintain have them given preference for when the race is brought back on the turf. That being said, McPeek ( 14% when polishing his pearlies in the morning ) is 3-15 ( 20% ) when going dirt to turf & short to long with his maiden special weight 2YO's off L/O's of 20-50 days ( 40-1 or less ). The winners came back $8, $10 & $63, with the big jammie having been ridden by Dylan two years ago. #1 BLAHNIK got smacked around in the career starter when barely beating the chase ambulance in the opening day overture, but $85,000 bred animal went for nearly seven times that amount at auction and deserves another shot with today's surface switch. #8 MISS ROMBAUER ( possibly named after the famed writer who wrote "The Joy of Cooking" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joy_of_Cooking ) is another expensive purchase who happens to be decently bred for this trip.  OFF TURF: 10-11(AE)-12(AE)-1-14(MTO)

 

Race 3

1.Acoustic

2.Wingman

3.Parauari ( Fr )

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #1 ACOUSTIC was a clear runner up in this race on the first of the month, and Servis is a crisp 7:4-2-0 with second off the claim mid level turf routers who were ITM last out & are < 13-1 today ( $10, $5, $8 & $7 ). #6 WINGMAN finished second in his lone "true" second off the layoff try, and the Serpe barn has been doing some good things at the stand. #4 PARAUARI (FR) is available for purchase for the first time today.  OFF TURF: 7-6-1-4-3

 

Race  4 

1.Hexameter

2.Curiousncuriouser

3.Maho Bay

#4 HEXAMETER went coast to coast like butter and toast versus cheaper when coming off the bench, and Terranova owns a 3 for 8 mark with second off the L/O dirt sprinters who got the job done in their last & are 15-1 or under today. #3 CURIOUSNCURIOUSER split the field in the local debut on 7/30, but encountered some trouble that day and can move forward a bit today. #7 MAHO BAY finished second in a nearly identical spot here 27 days back and merits inclusion once again. 

 

Race   5

1.Vomba

2.Enliven

3.Into the South

#4 VOMBA begins her professional working life today, and brings in tow a few decent morning moves as well as a large-and-in-charge 430 Tomlinson for the distance. Sire won his only dirt sprint, and the maternal granddam was 2 for 6 doing the same. Slight edge in a wide open heat. #8 ENLIVEN is another nicely bred firster with a bullet gate breeze ( which ALWAYS merits inclusion ), and not only was the dam 2 for 2 in dirt dashes ( 147K ), but the lone sibling to start won his only time going short on the sand ( 50G ) and the sire ( 7-9 ), paternal grandsire ( 1 for 2 ), maternal granddad ( 2 fer 2 ) and maternal granddam ( oh-fer-8 ) totaled a 10 for 21 ledger in similar spots. Oooooodles of things to like here. #5 INTO THE SOUTH has closed out the exacta in both outings and is a sensible inclusion.  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Dr. Edgar 

2.Holiday Bonus

3.Harlan's Hunch

#3 DR. EDGAR is one of two speedsters of this deal and enters today off a lifetime best #. Having drawn inside of the other front end type, we feel you'll have to grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 HOLIDAY BONUS is a nibbler by nature ( 16:1-4-3 ) and has been a part of the tri in all three starts when starting from the innermost three posts; seems like a logical "unders" candidate. #4 HARLAN'S HUNCH is the other one with some zip, and should our top choice stub his hoof, could get loose on a lonely lead.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-3-4-8-7

 

Race  7

1.Myhartblongstodady

2.Way Smart

3.Hope's Roar

#7 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY missed by just a sliver in this race after being forced to go seven wide when breaking slow from the pine. Gal has improved with each start, so who knows where her ceiling is. Mild choice. #8 WAY SMART is a Steady Betty who has yet to miss the superfecta and gets a positive jockey switch to Bravo today. #9 HOPE'S ROAR can be forgiven the last over yielding ground ( just her first start on anything but a firm course ), and having said that, the prior numbers are honest enough.  OFF TURF: 3-7-8-11-13(AE)

 

Race  8 

1.Papa Zulu

2.Proven Reserves

3.Krewe Chief

#4 PAPA ZULU is up for sale for the first tome today and has been working over he deep stuff down in Maryland. Meeeekest of selections in a tough race to decipher. #6 PROVEN RESERVES has won 2 of 3 ( the second coming with the addition of eye cups ), and although a deserving favorite, 6-5 seems a mite low here. #2 KREWE CHIEF tried going at it sands pilot in Iowa 51 days ago, but that's not entirely legal, so will try to bring some of that good prior mojo into play today w/Carmouche in the stirrups. We like that this one can rate or send. 

 

Race  9 

1.Morticia

2.Girls Know Best

3.Fire Key

#8 MORTICIA was positively ghastly in the most recent, but that was her only foray over soft ground, so let's not be too scared. The overall body of work is sublime ( AND on the improve before the last ), and the only other outing here resulted in a Polaroid being taken. Stone is finishing the meet much better than he started. #7 GIRLS KNOW BEST is a win machine ( 10 fer 17 ) and has a boatload of zippiness, which means a lot, as there were a couple of lighting fast fractions here on Friday. Interesting to see Johnny climb aboard 20-1 #4 FIRE KEY here, but maybe he's as enthused as we are by the 2 for 2 local mark on firm ground.  OFF TURF: 14(AE)-12-5-2-3

 

Race  10

1.La Manche

2.Powerstroke

3.Spa Jazz

We positively think #4 LA MANCHE is "The Man" in the week's finale. We did some research in our library of racing forms and saw that the Tomlinson for the five furlong distance of this one's most recent call to the post was exceptionally low ( 258 ), so that being said, we KNOW that he outran his pedigree for said start. Now, as today is a route, we feel very comfortable with prorating the 8/1 start to the best 2X start on the sod, and THAT race produced an adjusted number of 71.6 -- AND at a higher level. We'll be playing this one to win and using exacta savers with the next duo and the #1 as well. #6 POWERSTROKE has lost ground in the lane in all of her starts, but some of the Beyer figures are honest enough, and eventually he's gonna have it all her way on the front end. Barn is having a fine meeting, and chap has to be left in the hopper. #2 SPA JAZZ was a courageous third when positively marooned in the 7/29 heat, and whether it was the class or the blinkers that enabled this one to be closer to the pace at the halfway point, the fact is that this one poses a major threat with firm ground and a cozier slot. If we're losing, we'll be rooting like hell for our good friend Jack Knowlton and the rest of Sackatoga Stable.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 JOE'S SMOKING GUN doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 5 to 2 ?  OFF TURF: 2-4-10-3-12  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, THE #8 IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

  


Saratoga       ( Current )   64-321   ( $691.90 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-37  ( 18.9% )  Favorites Win %: 114-321 ( 35.5% )( As of Sunday morning ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017