KevinCoxItem

 

Just a couple of chalky winners on yesterday's card, but we did well in the exacat box department, with a profitable quartet of 'em. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/24 - New York Showcase Day

 

Race  1

1.Analyzethisandthat

2.Qian B C

3.Rice Entry

On our first draft of this race we were able to lop off half of the ten signed on. From there it was slim pickens... #7 ANALYZETHISANDTHAT has displayed good speed in both starts to date ( albeit a mite rank in one of them ), and low percentage barn has only gone dirt to turf with two maiden special weight turf dashers who hit the board last time out -- winning one ( $7 ). Jersey jock comes up for the ride. #6 QIAN B C ( "Qian" is Chinese for 'before' ) begins his working life today and brings in tow a few decent morning moves from Finger Lakes. Charlie 1 for 3 w/firsters in dirt sprints ( $32 winner was in the lone start right here ). Either the #1 BEACHSIDE or the #1A SOUNDS GOOD for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 2-7-8-3-5

 

Race  2

1.Freud's Affair

2.Bluegrass Express

3.H Man

#3 FREUD'S AFFAIR has been a part of the superfecta in 12 straight and 15 of 16,  while being somewhat forgiven for the lackluster effort here two fortnights ago, as the slop really ain't his deal. Slight edge in a wide open heat. #2 BLUEGRASS EXPRESS has hit the board in 3 of 4 when breaking from the pine and 4 of 5 at the trip. Expecting Carmouche to have this one more forwardly placed today. #4 H MAN won when claimed in last & is protected by Rudy against the purchase today; Irad with a win & a third in as many pairings with this one going way back when. 

 

Race   3

1.Speke

2.Bad Guy

3.Spectacular Kid

#4 SPEKE has partaken in the exacta in four straight, but that's not good enough for Todd, who slaps the hood on this afternoon. That factoid is pretty relevant, as over the last five years, he's a whopping 7:5-0-1 when doing that to his ungraded dirt routers at 10-1 or less ( $21, $3, $4, $4 & N/B ). #3 BAD  GUY has yet to "Say goodbye" to the maiden ranks, but it's not for a lack of effort, as this one has hit the board in his last quartet. Granted they were all on the gramma, but maybe the light bulb has come on, heh? #5 SPECTACULAR KID ( second half of the uncoupled entry w/ B.G. was a slightly troubled but gutsy runner up versus similar in Canandaigua County & is logical once again.  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Seven Jewels

2.Tiztinabella

3.Shady Shady Shady

#5 SEVEN JEWELS split the field on Independence Day +1 when debuting for my namesake, and four winners from that heat returned to go 4:1-1-0-1 next time out, improving their speed figures by an average of 10.3 points. 27% shotcaller is a tidy 6:3-1-2 with second timers making this surface switch while going short to long off breaks of 90 days or less ( 15-1 or < ). The winners came back $8, $6 & $8, and there don't appear to be any superstars in here. #4 TIZTINABELLA starts things out today for an 11% clan that's 4 fer 16 with male FTS'ers at 40-1 or lower ( $8, $8, $75 & $52 ). This one is a half to a 1-8 turf stayer ( 49K ), and needn't be much. #10 SHADY SHADY SHADY was an honest 2nd right outta the box for Nevin, and although there's a bit of a misconception about closing sprinters going long for the first time, we're compelled to include.  OFF TURF: 7-10-3-4-6

 

Race  5

1.Bankit

2.Dugout

3.Bustin to be Loved

Today's 5th race is named after the "Gutsy Gelding", Funny Cide, and as I'm fortunate enough to sit with owner Jack Knowlton quite often at Saratoga ( and join him in several charitable endeavors as well ), ad looking forward to a competitive race and nice trophy presentation by Jack ! I've put in the video of 'Cide's Derby win https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MN7pscnulA . After closing out the exacta versus open foed first time out, The As-Man dropped #5  BANKIT down into state bred company for the subsequent outing, and the result was a convincing 6 length score a 1 to 5. 19% shotcaller is a sublime 12:7-3-1 with two year old male dirt sprinters at this level who tallied less than 55 days ago & are 5-2 or undah today ( positive ROI ). #6 DUGOUT outran his daddy's $3,000 stud fee when going coast to coast in the bow, and ( from a tiny sampling ) Rivelli is 2-4 with 2nd timers of this ilk who got the job done in last & are < 18-1 today ( both paid seven clams ). #4 BUSTIN TO BE LOVED shocked many when forgetting to stop in the debut and merits respect once again.

 

Race  6 

1.Frisky Magician

2.Banana Thief

3.Ethan Hunt 

#6 FRISKY MAGICIAN closed like a freight train to lose by a honker in this race 23 days back, and looms large once again. #9 BANANA THIEF got the better of F.M. in their last meeting, but loses two pounds to him today. You can go either way here, to be perfectly frank with you. #3 ETHAN HUNT had a slightly troubled journey in the same affair as our top choice, but still closed out the superfecta that day. Not an impossible mission here.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-4-5-10(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Time Warp

2.Awesome Debate

3.Harley Q

#6 TIME WARP rebounded off the poor overture with a lively win when catching a glib surface a half'a month later, and although the figure came back a mite lowish, sometimes these babies can improve with leaps and bounds. McPeek is a perfect 4 for 4 with ungraded dirt dashers who procured the sheepskin four weeks ago or less & are < 17-1 today, with payoffs of $4, $35, $12 & $5. #5 AWESOME DEBATE went all the way up at the Lakes in the 7/23 initial foray, and we have no problem using undefeated horses at healthy odds. #8 HARLEY Q is a maiden facing winners, but that doesn't mean too much with lightly raced runners such as this, and January foal picks up Franco today.  NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Overnegotiate 

2.War Canoe

3.Feeling Bossy

#1 OVERNEGOTIATE hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but lost by a neck in her lone try on this course, and Pletcher knows how to have 'em ready off elongated breaks. Slight edge in the Yaddo. #5 WAR CANOE has hit the board in her last 14 "Non Graded" turf deals, so why not once again? #3 FEELING BOSSY is 3 for 5 at this trip ( 2-12 @ other dx.'s ) and won her only start with Irad astride; getting Servis at what should be a square #.  OFF TURF: 6-2-1-9-7

 

Race  9 

1.Pas de Deuce

2.Rachel's Blue Moon

3.Aunt Babe

#10 PAS DE DEUCE enters today off a lifetime best #, and from a limited survey, Morrison is 4:2-2-0 with ungraded dirt routers who were ITM less than a month ago ( $11 & $13 ). Sheds 48 oz. and looks live here going 2X for the second time. #7 RACHEL'S BLUE MOON went wire to wire in last, and Double J is white hot, having won five in a row, as well as owning a 6:3-3-0 ledger with local runners fitting this criteria ( $14, $10 & $8 ). #5 AUNT BABE was given a poor ride in the initial two turn dirt try over at F.L., and the breeding tells us she's worthy of another shot at such, especially being reunited with Cancel ( who was aboard for the all out $81 win ). After Monday's $98 score, you now know to never discount Jimmy up here. 

 

Race  10

1.Mo Maverick

2.King Kreesa

3.Offering Plan

#8 MO MAVERICK has nice early zip, is 2 fer 3 at the dist., and Weaver is a tight 2 for 3 with Saratoga based ungraded turfers going long of breaks of 51 days or less at 20-1 or < ( OTB in last ). The winners came back a healthy $25 & $29, and we like Carmouche on the front end. #5 KING KREESA sure has danced a lot of dances, no? Nine year old still suiting up, and has that type of "declining" boxscore, as it shows he has a nose for the finish line. We don't really like picking two speedsters in the exacta slots, but if one doesn't fire... #6 OFFERING PLAN likes the strip, likes the trip, and likes the man sitting on his hip. Sensible.  OFF TURF: 6-3(MTO)-8-2-12

 

Race  11

1.Brockmoninoff

2.The Mason Factor ( AE )

3.Wild William

#12 BROCKMONINOFF has done very little wrong in three starts to date, but beware of the "2nd off the L/O" bounce. #14 THE MASON FACTOR (AE) needs a little luck to be "free" of the Also Eligible list, but should that come to bear, brings in an excellent last race Beyer figure when a clear runner up down at Elmont. Ortiz slated to ride today and he's really picked things up after an awful start. #2 WILD WILLIAM slides in five slots and switches back to Manny. Logical inclusion.  OFF TURF: 7-12-2-3-1

  


Saratoga       ( Current )   62-297   ( $675.00 )   Beatable Favorites:   7-37  ( 18.9% )  Favorites Win %: 107-297 ( 36.0% )( As of Friday morning ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )     Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017