KevinCoxItem

This game sure can make you humble at times!! (Blanked yesterday after a big Monday, but were bailed out a bit with a $234 exacta reverse in the nitecap.) 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #3 Cadillac Frankie


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Saratoga - 8/23 - Grade 1 N.Y. Turf Writers Handicap

 

Race  1

1.Personal Start

2.Show Court ( Ire )

3.Iranistan

Featured steeplechase race of the meet is upon us, the Grade 1 N.Y. Turf Writers Handicap and for your edification, we've enclosed a link to the history of this event, won an incredible three successive times by Happy Intellectual at the age of 10, 11 & 12. #8 PERSONAL START showed speed before fading in the A.P. Smithwick, but to be honest with you, very few have won both races, so we have no problem with that being a solid "prep". Rich Valentine has sure done a nice job bringing this one along, culminating with a hat trick just before the last. One of those wins came when toting today's career low 144 pounds, and we'll pin our hopes to a wire job. #4 SHOW COURT (IRE) did in fact win the prep race for this, and we'd be remiss in excluding. #3 IRANISTAN finished just a length behind our secondary selection in last and went pillar to post in all three jump races just prior to that.   NOTE: AS OF 11:36, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-4-3.

 

Race  2

1.Untaken

2.Stormy's Song

3.Miss Mimosa

#5 UNTAKEN is off a "legit" layoff for the first time today, is 4:1-2-1 in her only 2X attempts over a fast track, and is 6:1-1-2-2 when breaking from the outermost two slots on the sand; mild edge. #4 STORMY'S SONG goes two turns on the brown stuff for the firat time this afternoon, and 383 Tommy tells us that it shouldn't be an issue. #1 MISS MIMOSA rounds out the top three.

 

Race   3

1.Mac's Revolution

2.The Sicarii

3.Family Biz

Another race where we feel extremely confident in our top two selections. Not that they will run 1-2, mind you, however... #4 MAC'S REVOLUTION has a couple of ( tucked away ) bullets on teh docket for today's career starter, and Barker is 1 for 2 with firsters of this ilk at 20-1 or less ( both starts were here as well, with the winner having run for purse money only ). Dam was a sensational 12 for 33 in dirt dashes ( 119K ), and this one is a half to a 9 for 53 dirt sprinter ( 179 large ), a 3-15 runner doing the same ( 153 big ones ), and four other family members totaled a 13 fer 27 mark at this trip -- making a boatload of money. The more we type... #2 THE SICARII has run ingto some trouble in both starts thus far ( earning okay numbers in the process ), so Anthony takes matters into his own hands today ( literally ) and slaps on the blinks, in order to give this one enough speed to stay out of trouble early on. Should be no worse than second here ( for all you place bettors ). #7 FAMILY BIZ ( second half of the uncoupled entry with our top selection ) paired with the barnmate for identical times in the aforementioned workouts, and would make sense to toss beneath, no ?   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 CADILLAC FRANKIE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept 8-5 ?  NOTE: AS OF 11:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Pure Magic

2.Sheputaspellonme

3.Theodosia

#8 PURE MAGIC got smacked around a bit in the latest, but nonetheless, the Beyer from that day came back honest enough, and as a matter of fact the adjusted speed figures from the last quartet are actually better than the naked eye is telling you. There may be some value here. #1 SHEPUTASPELLONME finished just ahead of the above in most recent, but as we write this ( with the odds not yet posted ), we feel that given the "third place finish" ( in a four horse race ) and 5-2 offering in said heat, that this one may be a tad overbet -- given the psyche of horseplayers. #3 THEODOSIA was placed in an impossible spot by DiPrima in the first off the claim try, but perhaps that was done to dissuade any purchasers today, given the extremely gutty effort in the penultimate outing.  OFF TURF: 6-1-2-5(MTO)-3

 

Race   5

1.Early Retirement

2.Durkin's Call

3.Quiet Out East

There are three excellent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em in no frills fashion...  The #9 exits the infamous race where someone is very lucky in not being forced to take EARLY RETIREMENT for having the gate in the incorrect starting position for the last race, but that aside, "Double honk if you like David Donk" with maiden special weight turfers going long for the second time off breaks of 29 days or less, as he's a poyfect 6 for 6 in that regards with an ROI of $5.30 ( 2 fer 2 in Toga as well ). #2 DURKIN'S CALL: Trombetta doubles his normative 15% batting average when going sand to gramma with runners at this level going long for the first time off absences of 19-35 days ( 25-1 or under ), and just look at the payoffs -- $38, $5 & $50 !  #7 QUIET OUT EAST: C-Squared is 11:3-0-2 with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at 25-1 or less ( $14, $45 & $8 ).  OFF TURF: 7-3-10-5-1

 

Race  6 

1.Royal Edition

2.Construct

3.Expert

#4 ROYAL EDITION takes a small drop today, and D.W. ( 10% when putting on his boots in the morning ) is 6 for 21 ( 28% ) with maiden claiming dirt stayers who missed the baccala 17-35 days ago & are 9-1 or beneath today. #1 CONSTRUCT is hiked up into the land of open company this afternoon while running with blinkers for teh second time; son of Curlin goes two turns on the dirt for the first time. #5 EXPERT is a touch better bred for the brown than the green, and the starts over the blades weren't half bad. Kept in jail and dropped for the first start ina new shedrow. 

 

Race  7

1.Dream Passage

2.Samara

3.Diamond Jen Brady

#6 DREAM PASSAGE finished 3rd in the first start off the claim by namesake, who owns a sizzling 7:4-2-1when wheeling back second off the purchase stock ina dozen days or less ( < 10-1 ). There's a positive ROI for that sampling, and there ain't much signed on here. We'll put the #1 SAMARA in the mix because JAson "Miracle Man" Servis is approaching 30% again. #2 DIAMOND JEN BRADY has essentially improved with ever start, and although she tries the turf dor the first time, sometimes it's the speed which is important in these turf dashes, and this one has some of that.  OFF TURF: 5-3-2-1-4

 

Race  8 

1.Candymankando

2.D'yer Mak'er

3.Carmine's Honor

#7 CANDYMANKANDO undergoes a gamut of changes today: Two turns to one, drops to an all time low, blinks on, new track and first time Irad, & would only need to find one or two of those agreeable to make some noise in this nondescript affair. Meeeeeeeeeekest of selections. #2 D'YER MAK'ER is available for purchase for the first time here, and a heating up Stone takes the helm. #3 CARMINE'S HONOR has yet to be at this level and switches from Dylan to Joel. 

 

Race  9 

1.Tapit Today

2.Kitten's Cowgirl

3.Ferdinanda

Today's 9th is named after the wonderful Riskaverse, and we've enclosed some footage of her two wins right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-F7NOEhv10 ! #4 TAPIT TODAY has won her last two on the sod in visually impressive fashion, and Brown has won with all four of his locally based ungraded turf routers at seven weeks or less ( < 6-1 ). #10 KITTEN'S COWGIRL shoots for the hat trick today off a lifetime best numero, and as a matter of fact, has climbed the Beyer ladder with each and every outing thus far ( 59-65-72-72-78-87 ), so the sky's the limit here for what is proving to be an excellent claim by Reynolds. #6 FERDINANDA has been a part of the super in all six outings since being switched over to Barclay's barn, and appears to be pretty versatile in the "running style" department.  OFF TURF: 6-8-9-10-1   NOTE: AS OF 4:35 P.M., THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Shiny Copper Penny

2.Siena Magic

3.Lohntwist 

#1 SHINY COPPER PENNY was a lively third the only time he went 2X to 1X, finished second in the lone foray when breaking from the pine, and as we go anywhere in a maiden's PP's to find something positive, we see a couple of decent running lines here and there. A longshot's longshot for sure. Jonny V. elects to ride the #7 SIENA MAGIC instead of for his own father in law ( who actually has a live runner here ), so obviously, he's risking a glare at the Thanksgiving Day dinner for that. But who can blame him, given the excellent breeding on this Pletcher runner ( Candy Ride over a Storm Cat mare ) along with the nice gate breeze on 8/6. #6 LOHNTWIST is the aforementioned O'Brien runner who gave an darn good account of himself when switching surfaces & stretching out three weeks back & will be gunning w/Reyes signed on.  OFF TURF: 3-7-5-6-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   62-287   ( $662.30 )   Beatable Favorites:   7-36  ( 19.4% )  Favorites Win %: 104-287 ( 36.3% )( As of Thursday morning )

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 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )     Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017