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Continued our nice little roll yesterday with a profitable troika of winners on a day where ( once again ) the track conditions changed throughout the card. 

 

Upcoming charity event:

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/9

 

Race  1

1 Ok Honey

2.Quietude

3.Molly's Party

#5 OK HONEY showed a baby "Z" pattern in the career starter at Elmont on 6/29, losing three lengths from the half to the top of the stretch, before regaining two lengths from that point to the line. Filly took a little bit of money that day and may improve over firmer ground. #2 QUIETUDE went for more than 10X the breeding fee at auction, breezed 48 & 3/5th's at Belmont back in June ( 20 of 65 ), and is a February bred facing a few younger foes. Price addition. #6 MOLLY'S PARTY had a pretty interesting debut when getting smacked around at the onset, acting greenly during the race, but yet finishing 3rd at 33-1. Obvious factor right back.  OFF TURF: 6-1-7-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, IF THE TRACK IS "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-3-2.

 

Race  2

1.Fingerpaint

2.Free Kitty

3.Malarkey

#7 FINGERPAINT finished 3rd in her only start off the bench, ( essentially replicating the figure earned from the prior outing ) and is available for purchase for the first time today. A couple of the adjusted speed figures earned are just fine, and as we go anywhere in a maiden's P.P.'s to find something positive, we'll bite here at a juicy number. #1 FREE KITTY has hit the board in 9 of 13 so far, but is slowwwwwwly approaching professional maiden status. Using in teh rollers, but be careful if using up top. David Donk has apparently had his fill of MALARKEY, as he put the #3 up for sale in the latest, despite a decent pair of starts to begin her career, and is kept at the same level after teh second place finish down at Big Sandy.  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   3

1. Enchanted Forest

2.Bunyan's Axe

3.Dove Shoot 

#7 ENCHANTED FOREST showed some decent early hoof after an elongated absence, and this one's career best # came off a second off the L/O try. One more shot for us. #2 BUNYAN'S AXE ran much better than his running line belies in the overture on October 28, but the followup on the dirt left a lot to be desired, as did the try off the shelf. There's another layoff in the picture today, but new conditioner has been clicking at a 31% rate this year, so we'll toss in the hopper. #3 DOVE SHOOT ran a biggie in the career starter on 7/7, and slides in 10 slots from that afternoon. Tough to leave out.  OFF TURF: 2-6-1-5-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:08, IF THE TRACK IS "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-5-6.

 

Race  4 

1. Flat Bill

2.Spectacular Plum

3.Steelersfanforlife

#2 FLAT BILL was positively grotesque when claimed for 40 large back on June 23rd, and Cox ( dig it ) kept this one in "jail" for more than 30 days in order to drop him the 20% you see today. The good news tho, is that the lone win came on the gramma, and at 29-1 no less ! #1 SPECTACULAR PLUM has gone 59-68-70 in his troika of turf outings this year, so right off the bat, who knows where the roof is. Johnny V. eschews this one for a bigger barn, but don't let that dissuade you from using the three year old bay. #6 STEELERSFANFORLIFE is another one you can place an upwards arrow next to in regards to the turf form, and is also 3rd off the L/O today.  OFF TURF: 10-9-3-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, IF THE TRACK IS "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-4-8.

 

Race  5

1. Flatexcel

2.Southeast

3.Potomac

#1 FLATEXCEL didn't show much in the local overture, but has never been a fan of the goo, and many runners move up after their first start here. #3 SOUTHEAST won the only time he was entered for this price, and is another who got some initial 'Toga experience in last. #9 POTOMAC has Beyered exceptionally well in his last three dirt starts, but keep in mind that two of those were going 2X & one was on a wet track. Including in our roillers, but feel will be a bit short parimutually so will relegate beneath.

 

Race  6 

1. Ticonderoga

2.Team Colors

3.Black Tide

#4 TICONDEROGA is clearly the class of this field, cracked the triple digit territory for the first time last time out, and ran second here first time outta the box. Appears solid. #2 TEAM COLORS is encouragingly hiked up in class for the first start off the Diodoro claim and has fared admirably on this course. #1 BLACK TIDE has some zip and can last for a share.  OFF TURF: 4-2-3-8-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:12, IF THE TURF IS NOT "FIRM", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-1.

 

Race  7

1.My  Girl Annie

2.Puffery

3.Salty Smile

#1 MY GIRL ANNIE finished 2nd in a race that we would consider a somewhat tougher event on the first of the month, and if you scroll up and down this race, you'd be hard pressed to locate anyone with the sort of front end speed this one showed in last. Wire job ( ? ). #2 PUFFERY has never gone 2 turns before, but Eddington in the geneology tells us that it shouldn't be an issue. Closed out the triple vs. similar 29 days back and should be right there once again. #6 SALTY SMILE had a failed experiment with the eye cups in most recent, but they're left in the barn this afternoon, and as there were a half'a dozen consecutive exacta finishes in the boxscore just prior to that, we'll toss right back in the cookie batter.  

 

Race  8 

1.Mentality

2.Crashing Connie

3.Goodbye Brockley

#9 MENTALITY appears to lay over these from a speed figure aspect, and the lone two tries going two turns yielded Beyers of 61 & 70. Now before you tell me how low they are, keep in mind that they were from the 2YO season, so with natural maturity we can expect something about a dozen points better than that. #5 CRASHING CONNIE has exhibited excellent form on the brown stuff to date, and although she tries the gramma for the 1st time, is actially a tab better bred for the stuff than the sand. Finger Lakes shippers have done nothing to disgrace themselves thus far at this stand, and we like that the Canandaigua rider makes the 200 mile sojourn. #2 GOODBYE BROCKLEY has improved with each and every turf start thus far, and scored in his only pairing with Looey.  OFF TURF: 1-9-12(MTO)-11(MTO)-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, IF THE TURF IS NOT FIRM, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-2-3.

 

Race  9 

1.Mamma White Socks

2.St Edmonds's Girl

3.Quietly Quick

We find the #6 MAMMA WHITE SOCKS an interesting proposition here. Every horse in the race has some sort of question mark next to her ( 1st/2nd off L/O's, never ran over firm ground, going one turn on teh turf for the first time today, you know--stuff like that ), and this one posted an adjusted Beyer of 58.2 first time out, and although it was back in February, with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in the P.P.'s. That being the case, this one is better bred for the blades than the dity stuff, so maybe she utilizes her speed to surprise today? #8 ST EDMOND'S GIRL had an extremely troubled debut and deserves another shot. #5 QUIETLY QUICK has been freshened since the dismal outing at Big Sandy and goes one turn on the lawn for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 1-3-8-2-4   NOTE: AS OF 12:16, IF THE TRACK IS "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-6-11.

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   36-169   ( $308.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-20  ( 10.0% )  Favorites Win %: 60-169  ( 35.5% )( As of Thursday morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017