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Finished off week #3 in fine fashion with a five bagger, bringing our ROI to -9.7% against a 17% takeout while still crushing it in the "Beatable Favorites" category 

 

Upcoming charity event:

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/8

 

Race  1

1.Sumner

2.Fillet of Sole

3.Brockton George

#1 SUMNER flopped in a stakes over at Philadelphia Park 1 1/2 months ago, but that's turning out to be a key race, as six runners from that afternoon have come back to amass a 5:3-2-0 mark in their next starts, with an average Beyer improvement of ten points ( they all improved ). Note that this colt has won both dirt starts when available for purchase. #4 FILLET OF SOLE was ambitiously spotted when more than doubled up in class for the first off the claim start by Servis ( had finished third at this level just prior to that ), and the result was a lackluster 4th. Gelding back where he belongs today and Irad sticks around. #3 BROCKTON GEORGE finds himself at his lowest level to date & is reunited with Santana, under whom he located the winner's circle last.

 

Race  2

1. Catania Rose

2.Smart Throb ( AE )

3.Truly Courageous

#12 CATANIA ROSE was compelled to go seven wide in a nine hore field last time out, but still managed to snag 20% of the purse for Abel down at Belmont. May be overlooked parimutually here, given the connections. #13 SMART THROB (AE) has steadily improved over her last quartet, and has lost by less than three in both starts when breaking from the outside. Needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it over to the races. #5 TRULY COURAGEOUS improved by leaps and bounds when closing out the triple in last at nearly 30-1, and four year old has fired off back to back bullets since then.  OFF TURF: 3-2-4-8-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   3

1. She'sakittykat

2.Animauxselle

3.Kid Croft

#2 SHE'SAKITTYKAT has done some good things since being transferred over to the Jimmy Ferraro barn ( 6:1-2-0-2 ) and has accomplished such despite never being lower than 7-2. Humongoid jockey change in play today ( Fragoso to Bravo ), and this barn always good for at least one winner a summer up here. #3 ANIMAUXSELLE makes her first start for Diodoro today, and he instantly slides this one down in class ( trainers will often do that when being handed slumping horses, as they figure "Well, if an owner is willing to make a switch, surely they'll be willing to drop 'em down." ) while adding the eye cups. Gets switched over to teh sand today as well, and Filly lost by less than a length at 29-1 the only other time that took place. #6 KID CROFT won her only time on the dirt ( and only start with Lasix ), and who are we to exclude?

 

Race  4 

1.Factor This

2.Jailhouse Kitten

3.On Patrol

#2 FACTOR THIS is dropped in class today after an okay fourth place finish on Independence Day, and went pillar to post the last time he was in for this price. #9 JAILHOUSE KITTEN was lost by Maker two starts back for $30,000, only to be reclaimed for 10K more next time out, so apparently, he's well thought of. There's another hike up the claiming ladder this afternoon, and why not, as this one has done very little wrong in his last troika. #1 ON PATROL finished third in this race at the end of may, and we'll use in that slot once again.  OFF TURF: 7(MTO)-8-9-5-6(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   5

1.Tiger Man ( AE ) 

2.The Glominator

3.Tenminuteswithal

Nearly impossible race to decipher here. #11 TIGER MAN (AE) improved by about 36% from the first start to the second, and with Street Cry in the family tree, should be able to handle today's added ground. #8 THE GLOMINATOR was purchased at auction for nearly three times the stud fee and paternal grandsire did a bunch of good things on the gramma. #7 TENMINUTESWITHAL is owned by nice guy Al Gold, and we'll include because of the "Diamond in the Rough" theory, as there's one crisp bullet ( 48 & 2/5th's ) amidst a bevy of ordinary moves.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-9-11(AE)-7-14(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Sandy Belle

2.Held Accountable

3.Lady Bergen

#2 SANDY BELLE ( cross entered Monday, so check the changes ) is 3:2-0-1 when going green to brown ( with one of the tallies coming right here ), and is second off a "true" layoff for the first time this afternoon. Schosberg charge prefers this trip ( as evident by the 3 for 7 mark ) to others ( 1 fer 7 ), and will need to shake clear early on. #6 HELD ACCOUNTABLE ( who was also put in on Monday ) ain't the same animal as she was last year, but is 3rd off the L/O & has a fair amount of back class. #3 LADY BERGEN has the best collection of recent speed figs in the field, but has been hampered by an assemblage of layoff lines & is 0-4 @ the trip; Mixed signals. 

 

Race  7

1.Blurred Line

2.High Moon

3.La Maquina Gris

Apparently the blinker experiment didn't take with the #10 BLURRED LINE, as they're left in the tack room today, but this one has never been off the board otherwise & is 2nd off the shelf today. #3 HIGH MOON has partaken in the triple in 9 of 11 and has enough speed to merit inclusion in all your action, both vertical & horizontal. #2 LA MAQUINA GRIS was snagged for 40 large by Toscano in the first start versus winners, and things couldn't have went more perfectly for him, as runner is now still eligible for that N2L condition. That being said, barn keeps this one claim protected this afternoon, and grey chap lost by only a length in his lone try when going from 1X to 2X.  OFF TURF: 2-1-10-8(MTO)-3-9  NOTE: AS OF 4:09, DUE TO THE TURF BEING "GOOD", OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 5-10-3.

 

Race  8 

1.Fullback Foye

2.Kerry Boy

3.Danny California

Just a bloody awful race here...  #6 FULLBACK FOYE gets a touch of class relief today and is 1 for 3 going two turns on the dirt while closing out the superfecta in 3 of 4 right here. Meeeeeeekest of selections in a race with those that are first or second off the L/O, and/or not entirely proven going 2X on the sand. #4 KERRY BOY has won 3 of 5 going 2 turns over the brown stuff, and has handled himself honestly enough locally. #3 DANNY CALIFORNIA could perk up with blinkers added, and pre-layoff pilot comes back. Do yourselves a favor and use this race to walk around the track & soak things in.  NOTE: AS OF 4:15, DUE TO TEH TRACK BEING "GOOD", WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-6-2.

 

Race  9 

1.A Different Style

2.Totally Boss

3.Stolen Pistol

#4 A DIFFERENT STYLE has yet to start on the turf, but when it comes to these dashes, sometimes we look at speed--rather than pedigree. Having said that, this one's held the lead ( at some point ) in his last six outings, is piloted by a good "send" rider, and has fired off three bullets since the last. 331 turf Tommy aids the cause as well. #12 TOTALLY BOSS basically went all the way when going over the blades for the first time, and should be just off of--if not on the lead beneath Santana ( his seventh different jock in as many trips to the track ). #10 STOLEN PISTOL shoots for the hat trick today.  OFF TURF: 6-2-13(MTO)-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 4:18, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING "GOOD", WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-4-12.

 

Race  10

1.American Ninja

2.Latin Love Bug

3.Theresa's Boy

#6 AMERICAN NINJA was claimed two back by Pat Reynolds, and he instantly spotted this one in a turf route at a higher class level, ( perhaps to give him some bottom while keeping him somewhat protected against the claim, as who would pay 40G? ). The result that day was pretty decent, and he's back where he belongs today while having the hood added. #4 LATIN LOVE BUG has ( for this group ) an overall decent body of work and gets a tremendous upgrade in the jockey department today. Seems like a 1-2-3 playah once again. #10 THERESA'S BOY was a well clear runner up when going T to D for the first time & could make some noise vs. these. 

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   33-159   ( $287.20 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-20  ( 10.0% )  Favorites Win %: 56-159  ( 35.2% )( As of Weds. morning )  

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017