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Our bacon was saved with a "just in time" $24 winner yesterday, but more importantly, a lot of money was raised last night at the Old Friends at Cabin Creek benefit at Saratoga National. ( Including a $250 winning bit on a gift certificte generously donated by my company ! ) 

Always time to donate, peeps ! 

 

Upcoming charity event:

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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 I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 8/6

 

Race  1

1. Bon Raison

2.Pirate's Treasure

3.Over Rider

We have "good reason" to use the #4 BON RAISON in today's opener, as this Pletcher charge is dropped down to his lowest level to date, has the most ( and best ) two turn experience on the dirt, and is reunited with the meet's leading rider in Saez. #8 PIRATE'S TREASURE is another who's entered for a lifetime low who has been a part of the superfecta in all three starts off the shelf. #1 OVER RIDER completes our troika of drop down horses today, as this race appears to be a "get out of my barn" deal for many, and we expect them to be well strung out by the time they complete the slow mile and an eighth. 

 

Race  2

1. Therapist

2.Collective Effort

3.Codrington

#2 THERAPIST has won 5 of 7 ( all on the turf ), is 2 fer 3 at the trip, and will be a deserving favorite after having recently bested similar at 1 to 2. #7 COLLECTIVE EFFORT stepped up into the land of winners for the first time and replicated the figure earned from the maiden breaking effort ( which we always dig ). Hard to argue with a win and two showings from as many turf routes, isn't it? #1 CODRINGTON as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 2-3(MTO)-4-7-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, BECAUSE THERE ARE NO HORSES LEFT, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Rubus

2.Killybegs Captain

3.Devils Halo

#6 RUBUS hasn't been seen since the day after my birthday ( write it down ! ), but went 59-64-87 in the three outings prior to the wheels coming off in the Louisville stakes. Tactically drawn and a big shot if fully cranked. #5 KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN matched his lifetime best # in latest, and owns a 3:1-1-0-1 mark in second off the L/O tries. Usually gives a good account of himself. #4 DEVILS HALO improved his speed fig by more than 15% after exiting the maiden ranks, and as we've mentioned, that's always a positive. Gets off the rail today which may help a bit. 

 

Race  4 

1.Chestnut Street

2.Shanghai Dreams ( AE )

3.The Great Johanna

#8 CHESTNUT STREET was a well clear runner up versus similar in last, and that deal is turning out to be a key race, as all returnees from that day have come back to amass a collective 5:2-2-0 mark in their next outings ( with an average Beyer increase of 6.6 points ). Down the lane. #12 SHANGHAI DREAMS (AE) closed out the super when debuting down at Belmont a couple'a months back, and the runner up from that afternoon came back to get her photo taken next time out. Lasix in the mix today, and this one's a majah playah if able to get into the body of the race. #4 THE GREAT JOHANNA has done some excellent work since being transferred over to Jimmy Ferraro, and although the turf breeding leaves a lot to be desired, we'll include because of the grittiness shown & the lack of turf depth signed on.  OFF TURF: 12(AE)-4-7-10-1   NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3rD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 2:33, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   5

1.Captain Gaughen

2.War Stroll

3.Get a Valentine

#6 CAPTAIN GAUGHEN has won 2 of 3, owns some hefty figagaros, and is at his most preferred distance today. Gets Irad back in the irons today, and he was aboard for the score three back. Looking good here. #8 WAR STROLL has hit the board in 2 of 3 in 2nd off the L/O tries & scored in 1 of 2 @ the trip. Five year old horse has never been entered as low as today, and has also won 1 of 2 when going from two turns to one. #4 GET A VALENTINE is 2 for 5 at this trip ( 2-13 otherwise ) and is 2 for his last 4 when available for 30K or lower.  OFF TURF: 2-1-8-9-7  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, IF THE TURF IS "GOOD", THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1. Stop Me If You Can

2.Trance 

3.London House

#4 STOP ME IF YOU CAN replicated the Beyer from the debut from the first start to the second, and did so despite a somewhat troubled trip. Another one with blinkers in the mix for the first time, and is no worse than a 1-2-3 player here. #8 TRANCE was a clear third versus similar a bit over three weeks ago, and February bred has the hood added today by Lynch. 425 Tomlinson speed figure says to us that there's still room for improvement, and let's face it --- there ain't no superstars in here. #6 LONDON HOUSE has a pair of sensational morning moves on docket for today's opener, and The As-Man has been smoking up here, winning at a 33% rate.   

 

Race  7

1.Palinodie ( Fr )

2.Silver Shaker

3.Double Cast

#3 PALINODIE (FR) crushes these. #5 SILVER SHAKER has hit the board in seven straight, won her only 3rd off the layoff attempt, and appears to be second best. #8 DOUBLE CAST is a nibbler by rote ( 16:1-2-3 ) but Leo charge has hit the board in all four starts with son in law Johnny V. aboard ( just 2 of 12 ITM w/other pilots aboard ) and closed out the exacta in his only start up here.   OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:56, IF THE TURF IS "GOOD", THEN OUR SELECTIONS ARE 2-1-3. ( Correction....as of 3:30, our "Good" turf selections are 1-3-5. )

 

Race  8 

1.Summer Sweet 

2.Mentality

3.Royal Inheritance 

Extremely tough race here, so use some prudence. #4 SUMMER SWEET takes the obligatory hike in class today after a smart score down in Elmont two dozen days ago, and you have to admire the consistency of one who's crashed the superfecta in 13 of 14. Slimmest of margins here. #7 MENTALITY has a fair amount of back class & is another who always gives a good account of himself. Love those with this type of running style. #5 ROYAL INHERITANCE went wire to wire in a nearly identical spot down south 24 days ago & as she's entered for a tag today, is still eligible for this condition.  OFF TURF: 7-4-5-13(MTO)-2   NOTE: AS OF 11:59, IF THE TURFIS "GOOD", THEN OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-6-7.

 

Race  9 

1. Merger of Banks

2.Latin Love Bug ( AE )

3.Pure Quality

#6 MERGER OF BANKS is first off the claim for Rudy and simply appears to lay over this allotment. #16 LATIN LOVE BUG (AE) needs a lot of help in order to get into the body of the race, but is a few points better on a fast track than a wet one ( which should boost up the last face figure a bit ), and as we go back anywhere with a maiden's running lines in order to find something decent, you should know there are a couple on the resume which are solid enough when in comparison to some of the stuff on display here. #13 PURE QUALITY has been befallen by back to back L/O lines, but takes the biggest drop in the game today and has blinks added.  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   28-150   ( $257.80 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-20  ( 10.0% )  Favorites Win %: 52-150  ( 34.7% )( As of Monday morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017