KevinCoxItem

 

You could call it "Whiffney Day" yesterday, as we got blanked on the slightly truncated card.

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Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #10 Gambler's Fallacy


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Saratoga - 8/5

 

Race  1

1. Dance Club

2.Into Mystic

3.What a Fox

#3 DANCE CLUB has a couple of decent moves on the docket for today's career starter, owns a monstah 430 Tommy for the distance, and has a maturity advantage over the entire field. Although Jose has been slumping so far, we have no qualms about using at 5-1. #5 INTO MYSTIC -- $650,000 auction purchase, 405 Tomlinson figure, Pletcher, Johnny, cha-cha-cha. #6 WHAT A FOX has a bullet gate breeze on the docket, and that's something that almost always merits inclusion for a first time starter.   NOTE: AS OF 11:39, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-6-5. 

 

Race  2

1. Paynter's Prize

2.Jimmy Jazz

3.Packed House

#8 PAYNTER'S PRIZE comes in today off a career best performance ( despite acting up at the onset ), slides in four slots, and is 3rd off the shelf. We'll bite at 15-1. #2 JIMMY JAZZ has by no means disgraced himself in either outing, gets a tremendous jockey upgrade this afternoon, and recently lost his ability to procreate. Another one at double digit odds who should be left in the mix. #6 PACKED HOUSE was just a tick shy of having hit the "70" plateau in both outings ( one of them versus open foes ) and is reuntited with the barn's hot rider.  OFF TURF: 1-6-10-4-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 GAMBLER'S FALLACY has an atrocious 247 pedigree number for the sod, and being a Violence out of a Ghostzapper mare, we feel was made the favorite because of the trainer's name.  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, IF THE TRACK IS FAST OUR SELECTIONS ARE ALSO 6-4-10.  Due to a late, late scratch, the #9 will be our 3rd choice.

 

Race   3

1. Horoscope

2.Mighty Zealous

3.Heavy Meddle

Extremely tight race here, so tread lightly. #2 HOROSCOPE fared well here two years ago, has some zip, and if you can see your way clear to the 3rd start back, then that would crush this bunch -- with IF being the operative word. #6 MIGHTY ZEALOUS won the last time he was available for purchase, and should sit a nice, tactical trip from an outside slot in a compact field. #5 HEAVY MEDDLE has made the lower rungs of the exotics in all three local forays & accomplished the same in 3 of 4 at the trip. Alvarado returns.  NOTE: IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 6-1-2.

 

Race  4 

1. Karma Delight

2.Fleet Irish

3.Top of the Page

#8 KARMA DELIGHT closed decently to snag 10% of the purse when last seen at Elmont on July 14th, and scorching Santana grabs the reins today. Slimmest of margins. #5 FLEET IRISH won by a bunch in the first off the layoff attempt for Falcone, and this one owns a win & a 4th plce finish from as many 2nd off the L/O tries. #3 TOP OF THE PAGE won his only go round at this dx., and was recently snagged by a high % clan off a 3rd place effort vs. slightly weaker.   NOTE: AS OF 12:21, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-3-6.

 

Race  5

1. Square Shooter

2.Eastwood

3.Holding Gold

#1 SQUARE SHOOTER has gone 85-94 in his first two turf starts, so right off the bat, who knows where the ceiling is? Grey gelding drops a whopping eight pounds off a win ( which we always dig ) and is 2 for 3 when starting from the innermost two slots; Mid Atlantic jock come northward for the mount. #8 EASTWOOD ( and we can't let a horse with this moniker slide by without inserting a classic Clint Eastwood scene --- this one being the "Do you feel lucky, punk?" followed by a "I gots to know." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xjr2hnOHiM . ) is 4:1-1-2 off a break, 4:2-1-0 when starting from the outermost two slots, and picks up Franco, who had two winners through the first seven races on Friday. #2 HOLDING GOLD closed out the exacta in his lone "3rd off the shelf" go round and may come along late for a slice.  OFF TURF: 8-7-5-1-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO THE TURF BEING YIELDING, OUR SELECTIONS WILL NOW BE 8-1-6.

 

Race  6 

1. Royal Angel

2.Aunt Hattie ( Ire ) ( AE )

3.Dogtag

#8 ROYAL ANGEL is a $25,000 bred animal who went for four times that amount at Keeneland in the fall of 2016, and this one is a half to a 2-10 turf stayer while being in receipt of a decent lawn rider for the debut. #11 AUNT HATTIE (IRE) (AE) ( I highly recommend you try Hatties fried chicken if able to make the trek up here ) really stepped up her game on the worktab of late & has the same pedigree stat as our top selection. Needs one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter. #7 DOGTAG has sensational breeding for this kind of deal and would obviously be no surprise here.  OFF TURF: 7-4-2-13(MTO)-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, IF THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-4-8.

 

Race  7

1. I'm an Ocala Dude

2.Earth

3.Joopster

#3 I'M IN AN OCALA DUDE popped, stopped, and flopped in the comebacker, but is second off th break today and should improve with Franco grabbing the reins today. #1 EARTH ( by "Orb"...ya get it ? ) gave an honest showing in the lone dirt try over a fast track, and pedigree suggests that was no aberration. You simply have to love the 47 flat bullet breeze over at Oklahoma nine days ago, but as we're not the biggest Cancel fans, we'll leave directly underneath. #6 JOOPSTER usually gives a good account of himself ( 7:3-2-0 lifetime ) and can land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-3-8.

 

Race  8 

1. Roman Approval

2.Aire Bueno ( Chi )

3.Bernay (Ire )

#5 ROMAN APPROVAL has lost ground in the lane in 11 straight, but gets some appreciable class relief this afternoon, and 7:2-4-0 mark at the trip is difficult to ignore. #2 AIRE BUENO (CHI) ( cross entered yesterday at Suffolk, so check the changes ) gets tremendous post relief today ( 14 hole to the deuce ) and may spice things up at 15-1 or more. #8 BERNAY (IRE) has never been entered this cheaply and has two wins from five starts at the dx.  OFF TURF: 12-4-5-8-13(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:30, DUE TO THE TURF BEING YIELDING, OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 2-4-8.

 

Race  9 

1. Three Perfections

2.Captain Hardship

3.Mathematician

#9 THREE PERFECTIONS split the field in his first start off a year and two day layoff, but was a dead game runner up in front of a next out winner in the lone "second off the shelf" attempt ( despite being seven wide ), and we'll give this one the slimmest of margins. #8 CAPTAIN HARDSHIP came from waaaaaayyyyyy out of it to get up in time down at Elmont on 6/8 at 8-1, and 8-1 is what your slated to be getting on this one once again. That was a career best #, and who are we to doubt that this one can't still climb the ladder in that regards. #3 MATHEMATICIAN was moved up to first via DQ in the most recent and that performance was his 3rd straight ( and only ) Beyer in the 80's.  OFF TURF: 3-10(MTO)-2-8-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO THE TARCK BEING YIELDING, OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 5-6-2.

 

Race  10

1. Kurilov

2.Patch 

3.Outplay

Today's featured race is named after the Hall of Famer Alydar, and we've enclosed video of the 1978 Travers against Alydar right here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6qUCO_bLns . #4 KURILOV owns a 7:4-2-0 ledger over a glib surface, and two of those wins came the only time he went from green to brown. Legit player. Fan favorite #5 PATCH returns to New York today, and as usual, will have some fans and shutterbugs following him around. That aside, the last race down in Ky. left a lot to be desired, but the only other time this one tossed in a clunker, a strong performance ( in the Belmont ) ensued in the followup. We like the worktab since. #2 OUTPLAY is 3:1-1-0 when returning off a hiatus and 1 for 1 over this oval. Another one who's been doing well in the A.M.'s & deserves your respect.   NOTE: AS OF 12:34, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 3-4-1.

 

Race  11

1. Birthday  Gift 

2.Miss Sizzle

3.Shanghai Glory 

#6 BIRTHDAY GIFT has been an empty box since shocking the world to the tune of $169 in early November of last year, but in all fairness, hasn't caught firm ground since that day. Maragh snagged his second winner here on Friday, and brown filly makes her 3rd start off the L/O today. #5 MISS SIZZLE has been switched over to the Charlie Baker barn since besting just two home in as many outings for Linda, and our boy Double-D gets legged up. Not hopeless in catching firm turf for the 1st time. #4 SHANGHAI GLORY is second off the claim & may hang on for a piece. OFF TURF: 7-10-1-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, IF THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 1-12-2.

  


Saratoga       ( Current )   27-139   ( $233.60 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-20  ( 10.0% )  Favorites Win %: 50-139  ( 36.0% )( As of Sunday morning )  

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017