KevinCoxItem

 

Another decent day for us yesterday with a couple of $9 winners ( helping us maintain a flat bet profit over the last five days ), a successful Beatable Favorite ( Chad Brown at 3 to 5 no less ), an ice cold exacta of $23, two exacta boxes of $31 & $125, three rolling Daily Doubles of $79, $91, $55 & $40, a cold tri of $65, and three rolling Pick Threes of $487, $429 & $234.

Let's keep it rolling, shall we? 

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Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #6 Cuarenta  Race 8 - #7 Mia Mischief


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 8/4 - Whitney Day

 

 Race 1

1.Holiday Stone

2.Bird's Eye View

3.Hembree

#7 HOLIDAY STONE hasn't been seen since Boxing Day, but has loads of back class & is a major threat if fully cranked up. #3 BIRD'S EYE VIEW is but a half length shy of having "finished first" all three starts this year ( was DQ'd in one ), and you have to like the progression shown since last autumn. #4 HEMBREE takes the obligatory hike in class after besting "A-Other Than" foes down at Elmont, and slides in six slots off that effort, so should be able to sit a sweet trip.  OFF TURF: 9-7-10(MTO)-11-2   NOTE: AS OF 12:05, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 9-10-2...IF THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 9-1-10...EITHER WAY, THE #9 WILL BE OUR PLAY OF THE DAY.  NOTE: AS OF 12:42, OUR WET TRACK SELECTIONS ARE 10-2-11...OUR FAST TRACK SELECTIONS ARE 10-11-2.

 

      Race 2

1.Social Paranoia

2.Malthael

3.Nobal Nebraskan

We are all over the #11 SOCIAL PARANOIA in this spot. Pletcher charge has performed admirably in both starts on the sand, and the pedigree tells us that there's room for a touch of improvement over the green stuff as well. January bred has a maturity edge over the entire field, and from a limited sampling, aforementioned shedrow is 3 for 5 with 2YO local first time turf/first time route, maiden special weight runners who hit the board in last & are 6-1 or under today ( $9, $6 & $4 ). There's a sub category of 2-2 w/males, and there are no monsters in here. #5 MALTHAEL is a half brother to a 1-3 turf router ( just 4K earned ), and has the same solid paternal grandsire ( Galileo ) as our next selection. #4 NOBLE NEBRASKAN is another Jan. foal who went for 5.5X the stud fee at auction, and is a half to a 1 for 5 turf stayer.  OFF TURF: 3-7-11-4-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, IF THE TRACK IS FAST OUR SELECTIONS ARE 2-7-11.

 

Race 3

1.Preternatural

2.Toga

3.Rogue Nation

#9 PRETERNATURAL takes the biggest drop in the game today, and C-Squared is a whopping 8 for 12 when doing just that to his dirt stock off breaks of 26-86 days at 6-1 or less. Note the bullet breeze since the freshening. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #2 TOGA here, as there was a snappy move back in May amidst a bevy of ordinary works. Maturity advantage over some signed on & 377 Tommy duly noted. #5 ROGUE NATION rounds out the tri.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 CUARENTA ( Spanish for "Forty", and is a descendant of 'Forty Tales' ) doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-7-2.

 

      Race 4

1.Belleville Spring

2.Not So Quiet Man

3.Scatsuku

On our first draft of this race we were only able to shave off one runner, and the trainers of the remaining entrants all have ohfer stats in relevant categories, so tread lightly... #6 BELLEVILLE SPRING can be forgiven the recent stakes try, and if you're willing to do that, then what you have is an adjusted number of 74.9 in the penultimate start. We'll take that at 12-1. #10 NOT SO QUIET MAN was all out to get up by a sliver in last, and before you dismiss because of the class level of that race, know that we actually have 12K claimers a few points higher than state bred allowance runners on our scale. Threat right back. #8 SCATSUKU won the only time he dashed over firm ground, and that's reason enough for us to include.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-1A(MTO)-5(MTO)8-3(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, IF THE TRACK IS FAST, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 9-3-2.

 

      Race 5

1.Thundering Sky

2.On Leave

3.Uni ( GB )

#9 THUNDERING SKY ( appropriately "weather named", as the owner was a weather prognosticator ) has made the tri in 8 of 11 at the trip, and 15% Weaver is a dreamy 8:3-1-1 with locally based ungraded routers going long, with the winners returning $24, $6 & $25. #7 ON LEAVE owns a 9:4-2-2 mark at the trip, has a steady stream of speed figs in the 90's, and Claude is 7:3-2-2 w/those fitting this criteria off absences of 104 days or less ( 6-1 or under ). The mutuels for that survey were $5, $6 & $9, but once again -- we'll be leaving Jose Ortiz underneath in most spots until he starts heating up. #1 UNI (GB) has done some nice things since arriving in the states, but has been beset by successive layoff lines, so we'll toss in the "unders".  OFF TURF: 7-1-2-4-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:20, IF THE RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, BUT THE TRACK IS FAST, THEN OUR SELECTIONS ARE 1-7-3.

 

Race 6

1.Duncastle

2.Hersh

3.Illudere

#7 DUNCASTLE was a troubled -- but game -- runner up in the Hallandale overture back in February, but must've ran into some issues afterwards, as they don't give six month vacations in this game for the hell of it. That aside, the speed # earned was honest enough, and with natural maturation from that day, could be even better today ---IF completely cranked. #4 HERSH rallied powerfully to get up for 2nd after sitting behind a logjam vs. similar on 7/6, and is an obvious inclusion once again. #8 ILLUDERE is capable of moving forward second time out.  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, IF THE TRACK IS WET THEN OUR SELECTIONS ARE 8-1-4.

 

Race 7 

1.Justice of War

2.Cousin Pete

3.Fabulous Fun

#2 JUSTICE OF WAR begins his professional career today, and has been doing well from the gate with a couple of top five workouts to his credit. The As-Man ( from a small sampling ) is 5:2-1-1-1 with those fitting all this exact criteria ( $18 & $48 ). Jock is doing extremely well at the stand, and this $10,000 bred runner went for 55 times that amount at Ocala in April. Lots of good sprinters in the family tree. #3 COUSIN PETE is another who went for triple digits at the above auction, and T.P. really wipes 'em clean with those fitting all these parameters at 6-1 or undah, as he's 16-35 in that regards ( 46% ). #9 FABULOUS FUN has a couple of swift workouts for today's overture, and that's pretty uncharacteristic for Shug.   NOTE: AS OF 12:24, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WOULD BE 2-7-9.

 

 Race 8

1.Clasy Act

2.Mint to Stardom

3.Spectator

Our favorite kind of race -- a Grade 1 seven furlong dirt dash... #4 CLASSY ACT has gone 61-87-86 in her three dirt dashes to date ( two placings and a win ), and accomplished that at increasing class levels. Slimmest of margins in a wide open Test. #8 MINT TO STARDOM is a perfect 3 for 3 while climbing up the Beyer ladder along the way. If our top selection goes down, we have no problems seeing Corey win. #2 SPECTATOR showed a bit of a change of tactics after being transferred to the Nevin barn, coming from ten lengths out of it to lose by a shade over two. Second off the layoff today and should move up off that effort.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 MIA MISCHIEF  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, IF THE TRACK IS WET, THEN OUR SELECTIONS WOULD BE 4-3-6.

 

 Race 9

1.Discreet Lover

2.Diversify

3.Dalmore

Second biggest race of the meet up here, the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap, and for some edification of this famed event ( won THREE times by the great Kelso ), just go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitney_Handicap . #5 DISCREET LOVER is bound to get overlooked here given the low percentage outfit and 20-1+ odds in the last quartet, but there are things to like here. This one is on the improve ( 82-91-98-98 ), and if you can draw a line through the "non-2 turns over a fast track" running lines, then what you have is a fella who's gone 3-1-1 in his last five. Sure, the numbers & class level of those are a bit on the lowish side, but with a suspect second choice here ( 'Biscuits trying 2X for the first time ) and a favorite who may be somewhat overbet off a monster figure earned on his favorite track, why not take a shot at a price. Stock goes WAY up if the front wraps come off, as that move resulted in a Grade 3 win back in April. #6 DIVERSIFY must be used in the rollers off that last race down at Big Sandy, but caveat emptor on the short price. #3 DALMORE is 4:1-1-1-1 in second off the layoff tries, finished second here in the lone attempt, way back when, and is 3:0-2-0 at the trip. None of those races overlap, so that's a cumulative 8:1-4-1-1 in some pertinent areas, and when you have a sizzling Santana taking the reins, that's more than enough reason to toss into the exotics. 

 

 Race 10

1.Mom's On Strike

2.Santa Monica ( GB )

3.Lottie

#2 MOM'S ON STRIKE has won 5 of 7, won her only start at the trip, and Sharp has been simply scintillating thus far at the stand, winning half of his eight starts. Appears solid. #5 SANTA MONICA (GB) has done very little wrong since arriving in the states ( AND being administered the wonder drug ), going 3:2-0-1 with increasing figaros in each outing. Leaving beneath as Jose has been off his game so far. #8 LOTTIE can land a share.  OFF TURF: 8-1-2-4-6

 

 Race 11

1.Ballagh Rocks

2.Inspector Lynley

3.Ticonderoga

Best race on the day is not the Whitney, but this restricted turf stakes that could just as easily be confused with a Grade 2. #6 BALLAGH ROCKS won in his only "third off the L/O" start, is 3:0-1-1over this oval, and 4:2-0-1 at the trip; picks up Irad for the first time. #9 INSPECTOR LYNLEY is a steady if unspectacular sort who has done his best work at this distance. You can essentially put an upwards arrow next to the Beyer speed figures of the #2 TICONDEROGA, as this one is quite obviously figuring things out ( as attested by cracking the "100" plateau in last ). Colt finished second right outta the box here on August 13, and should be rolling late.  OFF TURF: 2-9-4-6-3

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   27-130   ( $233.60 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-18  ( 11.1% )  Favorites Win %: 44-130  ( 33.8% )( As of Sat. morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017