KevinCoxItem

 

Profitable grand slam for us here yesterday, and we now have a flat bet profit over the last four days.

More importantly, the package I was a part of at the Equine Advocates benefit went for a whopping $1,400 !! Thanks to all who came and gave.  

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Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1 Midnight Bounty  Race 5 - #5 More Mischief


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 8/3

 

 Race 1

1.Vampish

2.Whyisshesolucky

3.Cassie's Dreamer

A six pack of firsters to start out Friday's festivities, and we'll give a tepid nod to the #4 VAMPISH. None signed on have a maturity advantage over this Rudy charge, who is the first foal out of a dam who won her only dirt sprint ( 30K ), and was sired by an hombre who was a goodie that finished second in his only one turn try on the sand. Additionally, all grandparents cumulatively went 12:5-1-0 at this trip, and Javy gets the call. Finger Lakes invader #6 WHYISSHESOLUCKY may never find an easier spot to steal a Saratoga purse, and is another January bred with a couple of nice breezes who draws well. This is the second foal dropped by an unraced dam, whose lone sibling went 4 for 29 in dirt dashes ( just 20G ). Those in the family tree amassed an 8:4-1-1 ledger at this dance, and hometown rider makes the 'Toga sojourn. #5 CASSIE'S DREAMER boasts the second highest Tomlinson figure for today's career starter, and this is the first foal out of a gal who never made it over to the races, but papa was 2 for 3 in 1X dirt events, and the rest of the bloodlines show a total 5-15 mark at the dist. 

 

      Race 2

1.Lip Sync

2.Saturday's Vapor

3.Salt Pond

#1 LIP SYNC was purchased at auction for $100,000 last March and is now available for just 1/5th that in today's debut, so right off the bat, caveat emptor. Now that aside, there are a couple'a decent morning moves for today's deal, and this one is a half to one who went 17 for 49 at this distance ( only 59 large earned ), but if you remember, the sire was brilliant in his only start ( 114 Beyer ), and a hot Santana gets the assignment. #2 SATURDAY'S VAPOR has lots of speed, is halved in price, and 12% barn is 5 for 25 ( 20% ) with runners of this caliber who missed the board 27-55 days ago & are 5-1 or less. #8  SALT POND is available for purchase for the first time while going turf to dirt and picking up a slumping Ortiz. 

 

Race 3

1.H Man

2.Sudden Surprise

3.Global Positioniong

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 H MAN is 1-1-1 in his last four when put up for sale & has partaken in the superfecta in eight straight. #3 SUDDEN SURPRISE is 4 for 4 locally, 2 for 2 when entered for this price ( both right here ), and the 11 for 23 lifetime mark shows how game this runner truly is; using. #1 GLOBAL POSITIONING is 7:2-1-1 when breaking from the pine & rounds out the top three. 

 

      Race 4

1.Little Miss Julia

2.Zeven

3.Madame Barbarian

On our first draft of this race we were unable to eliminate anyone, and upon further review, all trainers had collective stats of oh-for-63....NURSE !!  #3  LITTLE MISS JULIA appears to be the last horse in the barn for "The Fish" ( who was always very nice to me when I was an agent ), and she's only had one shipper run on the dirt up here, and that one finished third at 18-1. This one closed out the exacta in the lone 1X to 2X attempt on the sand and may appreciate getting off the rail today. The number seven is ZEVEN ( how fitting ! ), and this one finished second in the lone try at The Spa, and won the only time he was at this level or lower. 4:0-2-1-1 mark when beginning from the outside aids for the exotics. #2 MADAME BARBARIAN as bad as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 MIDNIGHT BOUNTY fills the bill, as Falcone melts like a snowman with second off the claim/second off the L/O stock, being 0-9 in that regards.

  

      Race 5

1.She Will Rock

2.She's Trouble

3.Three Birds

#7 SHE WILL ROCK ( cross entered as an MTO on Wednesday, so check the changes ) was a well beaten but well clear runner up on the 5th of July, and the speed figure earned from that afternoon was substantially higher than that of the bow. The As-Man is a sublime 9:7-1-1 with Saratoga based runners at this level who crashed the fiesta 19-39 days back & are 3-1 or less today ( $4.07 ROI ). There's a sub category of 4 for 4 with Ricardo aboard, and this is our play of the day. #2 SHE'S TROUBLE is another who got better from the first start to the next, and from a teensie sampling, Rice is 3:2-0-1 w/maiden special weight dirt runners who missed the money < 38 days ago, and are returning on this strip ( $10 & $7 ). John Madden fans will love the name of the #8 here ( "THREE BIRDS", by "Turducken ), but monikers aside, this one thoroughly appreciated the juice three months back, when finishing third down at Elmont. Four runners from that heat have come back to amass a 4:2-0-1 mark, with an average Beyer improvement of 5.5 points.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MORE MISCHIEF makes sense in this category, as Brown is 1 for 16 with runners fitting ALL this exact criteria.

 

Race 6

1.Lulu's Pom Pom

2.Beaux Arts

3.Cirque

#3 LULU'S POM POM went coast to coast like butter and toast in procuring the sheepskin down in Long Island on 6/29, and lost by only a sliver in her lone "3rd off the L/O" try. Slight edge here. #10 BEAU ARTS won her only try here last year ( we had her that day ) and has gone 51-58-79 in her troika of turf starts over firm ground, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #4 CIRQUE was getting better and better last year right up 'til the maiden breaker, but was sent to the shelf by good man, Bob Dunham for one reason or another. Returns with Lasix today and is an obvious factor if sound.  OFF TURF: 4-5-6-9-1A

 

Race 7 

1.Affagato

2.Kingdom's Queen

3.Bazooka Girl

#4 AFFAGATO has decent pedigree for today's initial foray, as not only was the champion sire 7 for 15 going long oin the dirt, but maternal grandsire ( also a champeen ) was 2 for 2 doing the same. Price play. #5 KINGDOM'S QUEEN goes two tuns on the dirt for the 1st time, and interesting to see Junior return. #3 BAZOOKA GIRL undergoes a gamut of changes today -- one turn to two, first time wonder drug, first time eye cups, new track and gets the leading rider -- & would only need to find one of those agreeable to make a positive impression in this uninspiring maiden event.  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Can You Diggit

2.Inherent

3.Holland Park

The #9 is 5:2-1-1 off the shelf, 2:0-1-1 at The Spa, 5:1-2-1 at the trip, and is backed by a 3 for 4 trainer stat, as Double J is just that with local runners of this ilk off breaks of 33-99 days. Need more ? Six runners from the last returned to compile a 6:3-1-0-1 record in their subsequent outings, improving their figaros by an averags of 11.7 points. CAN YOU DIGGIT ? Can you dig it ? Caaaaaaaannnnn youuuuuuuu dig iiiiiiiiiiit !!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-OYKd8SVrI . #2 INHERENT returned off an elongated absence to get his first score for The Toddster down at Hallandale Beach, and being an Oxbow out of an A.P. Indy mare, today's added ground should be of little concern. #4 HOLLAND PARK has improved with each and every start, including a step up into the stakes ranks back in April.  ( NOTE: The third selection was amended as of 2:08 Wednesday. )

 

 Race 9

1.Battle at Sea

2.Combatant

3.Gemonteer

#10 BATTLE AT SEA finished an honest enough third in his lone turf try, and as this one's two turn dirt numeros are better than the one turn figures, there's a chance for some improvement off the aforementioned start on the sod. This one is a half to a 1 for 6 turf router ( 31K earned ) and sire was 6:3-3-0 on the poly, which we feel translates to grass just fine. Longshot play in a wide open Hall of Fame. #7 COMBATANT is another who didn't disgrace himself when trying the green for the first time, and obviously, the back class is there. #1 GEMONTEER has some nice zip, but with some other speed signed on, a minor award is more likely here.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-5-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 10

1.Mr. Fixit

2.Flatexcel

3.Laura's Posse

Linda must've been nauseous when she saw #4 MR. FIXIT finish up the track in last, as she plunked down 40 big ones for him that day. The good news tho, is that she has a crisp 4 fer 6 mark when dropping dirt dashers by 50% or more in first off the claim tries at 81 days or less. #3 FLATEXCEL ( cross entered Wednesday, so check the changes ) was a troubled but game runner up against cheaper on July 8th, and although logical -- we're curious why Saez boogied on over to the Gullo horse here. #7 LAURA'S POSSE returned off an 8 1/2 month break to splash his way to a maiden victory 19 days ago, and sometimes with lightly raced runners, the lightbulb can stay on once they figure things out.  NOTE: AS OF 12:46, DO TO A LATE SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 4-1-3.

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   25-120   ( $215.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-17  ( 11.8% )  Favorites Win %: 41-120  ( 34.1% )( As of Friday morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017