KevinCoxItem

 

Moderate day for us here yesterday with one $13 winner, a $48 Quinella Box, two exacta boxes of $89 & $163, and a Triple Box of $250. 

 

Just a reminder that I will be "auctioned off" at today's benefit listed below this week. The lucky winner gets to spend the afteroon with myself and Jack Knowlton -- owner of Funny Cide -- having lunch at the track, where I'll try and select some winning wagers for you ! It's for a great cause !!

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Upcoming Charity Events:

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ 

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #9 Cottonwood Falls


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 8/2

 

 Race 1

1.Archumybaby

2.Bustin Hearts

3.Satin Sheets

#1 ARCHUMYBABY has been a part of the tri in 9 of 10, is 3 for 5 when breaking from the innermost two slots ( 1-11 otherwise ), and 16% conditioner is a whopping 11 for 26 with mid level dirt dashers who hit the board 13-27 days back & are 7-1 or lower ( $3.20+ ROI ). like to see the Philadelphia jock come up for the mount. #4 BUSTIN HEARTS is another who has consistently been 1-2-3, as this one has accomplished just that in 14 of the 16 outings where the jockey has stayed aboard, and 'Miah is all 'hart when stepping up dirt sprinters 50% or more at 18-1 or lower ( won < 39 days ago ), as he's 4 fer 8 in that regards. #2 SATIN SHEETS finished 2nd in the lone second off the layoff attempt & is 2-3 @ the dx.

 

      Race 2

1.Ready to Escape

2.Claude'salleycat

3.Wild Road

#1 READY TO ESCAPE improved appreciably from the first start to the second, but the soild effort wasn't enough to keep his privates intact, as he was reported as being gelded about four weeks ago. There's been a nice breeze since and he ain't facing much. #5 CLAUDE'SALLEYCAT is a longshot's longshot for sure, but catches a fast track for just the second time and the breeding's okay enough. #6 WILD ROAD is another who moved forward in the secondary outing, but we'll leave beneath as Leparoux is just 23: 1/2-2-2 on the meet.  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Hizeem

2.Frontier Market

3.Hierarchy

#3 HIZEEM was a green runner up when going shorter in the Elmont overture, and Brown is a tight 4 for 6 when stretching out his maiden special weight second time turfers off breaks of 25-50 days ( 3-1 or less ). There's a positive ROI for that sampling, and Javy having a nice meet thus far. #1A FRONTIER  MARKET ( second half of the uncoupled Brown entry ) has a sensational assemblage of Beyer figures, but is beginning to give the impression of being that  kind of a maiden. Nonetheless, the aforementioned conditioner is 11:5-3-0 with locally based runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 46-92 days below the 4-1 watermark ( $2.80+ ROI ). #4 HIERARCHY bested half the field when going wide in the debut ( at 14-1 ), and Claude is 6 for 20 with second time starters under these conditions ( any track ) who were OOM less than 75 days ago at 7-1 or lower.  OFF TURF: 1-(MTO)-1A-3-2(MTO)-4

 

      Race 4

1.Hard Study

2.Carlino

3.You're to Blame

Featured race of the day is named after Birdstone, and we've enclosed some video of his Belmont Stakes win ( if for no other reason that we were on our NYPD horse just shy of the finish line that day ! ) right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gAeTic_9Bo . #1 HARD STUDY is 6 for 7 over a fast track, 2 for 2 off the bench, and won this very race last year. K.I.S.S. #2 CARLINO finished second in his lone spin over this strip ( at this dist. ) and all three scores have come underneath Stone. #3 YOU'RE TO BLAME ( uncoupled barnmate with 'Study ) loses the eye cups today & completes our "Easy as 1-2-3" triple.  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Loose

2.Daring Prospect

3.Non Finisce Mai

#8 LOOSE got just that down at Big Sandy in mid June, when going all the way in an identical spot, and ended up in a better barn afterwards. Filly excels at this trip, as evident by that 5 for 8 mark ( 0-5 at other dx's ), and another wire job is well within reach. #7 DARING PROSPECT was a hard fought runner up against tougher on 6/10, and figures once again. #2 NON FINISCE MAI "It never ends" ends our analysis for this race. 

 

Race 6

1.Rubellite

2.Currency Chaos

3.Jasmine's Gem

#7 RUBELLITE barely beat home the chase ambulance in an off the turfer at BEL last out, but last year's career opener on the gramma was just fine, and D.D. is ( from a small survey ) 2 for 5 with maiden claimers going short over the blades who missed the $ less than 69 days ago & are beneath 40-1 ( $19 & $29 ). #4 CURRENCY CHAOS has a nice overall body of work, and "Honk if you like Double Donk", as David ( 11% day to day ) has won with a third of his 18 mdclm. turfers coming back off breaks of 20 days or more @ 10-1 or under ( $2.81 ROI ). #10 JASMINE'S GEM is an obvious player here, as Bush looks to go 3 for 3 when cutting back those at this class level @ 5-1 or less ( < 71 days ). Both winners came back nine clams, and this one draws decently.  OFF TURF: 6-9-1-8-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 COTTONWOOD FALLS doesn't even make our first cut.

 

Race 7 

1.Cross Boarder

2.Honey Dont

3.Herecomesyourman

#1 CROSS BOARDER shoots for the hat trick today, lost by only two lengths in the lone "3rd off the L/O" try, and Maker is a perfect 3 for 3 when being handed those who won less than four dozen days ago and spotting them on the lawn at 12-1 or beneath ( $25, $9 & $8 ). #4 HONEY DONT hung up a lifetime best # when procuring the sheepskin 33 days back, and Mott is a Saucy 3 fer 5 with runners fitting this criteria who graduated lower than 66 days ago ( $48, $10 & $7 ). #2 HERECOMESYOURMAN has been a part of the triple in 7 of 8 and that's enough reason to incorporate.  OFF TURF: 5-7-9-8(MTO)-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Dream Pauline

2.Critique

3.Mizzen Max

There are three solid trainer stats worth mentioning for today's 8th, so let's get right to 'em ! #2 DREAM PAULINE was visually impressive when winning at first asking in Ozone Park, and although that was a loooong time ago, McL. is a groovy 13:8-1-3-1 with second time dirt starters who won right outta the box more than 36 days ago ( positive ROI ). #7 CRITIQUE is another who's been away for a while, but we're assuaged by the fact that Pletcher owns a large and in charge 23:12-6-0 record with allowance sand sprinters returning in between 206 & 412 days ( 6-1 or < ) with a sensational $3.44 returned on every $2 bet. #4 MIZZEN MAX completes our troika or returnees, and as this one has yet to miss an exacta ( or "exactor" for my friends nord des lignes ), she merits an instant looksie. Adding to the allure, is that Michelle also has a 3-6 ledger with runners fitting this criteria in 'Toga off sabbaticals of 44-88 days -- and just look at the prices: $12, $20 & $29 !

 

 Race 9

1.Onthemoonagain ( Fr )

2.Con Te Partiro

3.Last Promise Kept

#5 ONTHEMOONAGAIN (FR) has been facing some salty critters in the land of love and grapes, and arrives in America receiving the complete package: Brown, Castellano, and the wonder drug. Gal has been away for ages, but that doesn't mean diddly poo with this outfit. #4 CON TE PARTIRO showed a bit of a "Z" pattern in last, when losing 6 3/4 lengths from the half to the top of the stretch before regaining three lengths from that point to the line. Note that the lone spin over this course was a successful one. #2 LAST PROMISE KEPT has two wins and a third from as many tries on firm ground, and that's reason enough to slide in.  OFF TURF: 2-6-1-4-5

 

 Race 10

1.Muchacha Uno

2.Summer Fling

3.Paddydunalot

#1 MUCHACHA UNO has been claimed out of the last two, and those seem to have been good decisions, as miss has finished second in both of those starts. Timid choice in a wide open nitecap. #4 SUMMER FLING missed exiting the maiden ranks by a honker down in Louisville on 5/25, and was given a bit of a freshening by Maker after that effort. Nice collection of running lines, and gal is a factor if cranked up. #3 PADDYDUNALOT is available for purchase for the first time today & worked a sizzling ( and uncharacteristic ) 34 & 3 over at Oklahoma on Saturday; watch out.  OFF TURF: 4-2-5-8-9

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   21-110   ( $186.20 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-16  ( 12.5% )  Favorites Win %: 37-110  ( 33.6% )( As of Thursday morning )  

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017