KevinCoxItem

 

We finished out the week on a positive note with two profitable winners, a $597 Rolling Pk. 3, an ice cold $72 exacta, and two rolling doubles of $98 & $70.

Just a reminder that I will be "auctioned off" at the Thursday benefit listed below this week. The lucky winner gets to spend the afteroon with myself and Jack Knowlton -- owner of Funny Cide -- having lunch at the track, where I'll try and select some winning wagers for you ! It's for a great cause !!

 

Upcoming Charity Events:

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 8/1 - The August place to be...

 

 Race 1

1.Go Get the Basil

2.Whitman's Poetry

3.First Friday

#4 GO GET THE BASIL was prepped for this with a flat race up near Beantown, and we like the way he showed early hoof that afternoon before fading late in the game. Eight year old ( you see -- THIS is why steeplechase racing is great, as this fella wouldn't have a career otherwise ! ) is a perfect two for two jumping on firm ground. #6 WHITMAN'S POETRY has been a part of the exacta in his last four calls to the post, and is reunited with the pilot of his last win. #3 FIRST FRIDAY won the first time he went vertical back in September, then split the field versus stakes foes in the subsequent outing. Gelding runs Lasix free and gets a bit of a weight break in here.  

 

      Race 2

1.Giant Ending

2.Heaven's Creation

3.My Girl Annie

#3 GIANT ENDING finished third behind a next out winner in the comebacker while boasting a placing in the lone second off the layoff try. Levine is a crisp 3 for 4 when going short to long with his mid level stock who hit the board 21-42 days ago ( 9-1 or less ) with the winners returning $4, $7 & $16. #7  HEAVEN'S CREATION finds herself at her lowest level to date in today's first start for Bruce Brown, and chronic nibbler ( 9:1-4-3 on the brown stuff ) seems like an ideal "unders" candidate. #8 MY GIRL ANNIE has finished third in her last duet, and that seems like a good spot for her once again.

 

Race 3

1.The Mason Factor ( AE )

2.Causforcelebration

3.Ferrad's Party

#14 THE MASON FACTOR (AE) needs a little luck to merely make it over to the races today, but should that occur, brings in a nice looking last race running line where he was a solid second at this level. 'Miah ( 25% day to day ) is a tight 3 for 4 with maiden claiming turf sprinters who crashed the party less than 81 days back & are 8-1 or lower today ( $5, $5 & $16 ). #11 CAUSFORCELEBRATION has the eye cups removed today after burning some bread in last, and could be formidable if able to revert to the prior two starts. #9 FERRAD'S PARTY closed stoutly to snag 20% of the purse last out and figures once again.  OFF TURF: 12-9-2-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 4

1.Terrible Day

2.Acoustic

3.Ode to the Hunt

#6 TERRIBLE DAY comes in today off a win & was a game runner up in the lone dirt to turf try. White hot Santana takes over. #5 ACOUSTIC has a nice collection of speed figures, and from a small survey, Servis is 3 for 7 with first off the claim mid level turf routers who missed the baccala 35-79 days ago. #3 ODE TO THE HUNT showed zilch in the most recent, but let's be a bit forgiving, as the two just prior to that were honest enough. Price addition.  OFF TURF: 5-11-6-13(AE)-2

 

      Race 5

1.Gifted Lady

2.Our Circle of Love

3.Catoria 

We won't be going any deeper than our top two for all the rolling action... #4 GIFTED LADY hasn't been deem since turkey time, but there are a couple of decent dirt figaros in the past performances, and as you may know, we like to delve anywhere in a maiden's PP's to find something positive ( as they;re maidens for a reason, ya know ). Filly faces some younger foes here. #10 OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE should be no worse than second in this spot, but be forewarned that Nevin is a woeful 1 fer 25 with maiden special weight dirt sprinters who were in the money less than 55 days ago; mixed signals. #3  CATORIA bested more than half the field in the career starter on Independence Day and is eligible to move forward given the 413 Tomlinson figure for the distance. 

 

Race 6

1.Corey Scores

2.Sassy Agnes

3.Itsakeyper

#3 COREY SCORES was purchased at auction for more than four times the stud fee, and although being a late foal, has better turf breeding than most signed on. Timid selection. #8 SASSY AGNES has been performing admirably in the mornings for today's career starter, and is another who was well thought of at the sales. #6 ITSAKEYPER is much better bred for the turf than the dirt she toiled on in the bow, and it's encouraging to see Jersey Joe stick around.  OFF TURF: 1-8-10(MTO)-2-3-5

 

Race 7 

1.Stormy Justin

2.Appealing Briefs

3.Pocket Player

#9 STORMY JUSTIN improved with each start up to and including the diploma earning effort last November, before being sent to the shelf for one reason or another. Returns for a new shotcaller today, and the adjusted number from when last seen most definitely matches--if not supersedes most sign on. Take a peek in the paddock. #7 APPEALING BRIEFS has missed the superfecta but once in her 14 race career, but obviously, most of them are nibbles, so we're leaving beneath. #10 POCKET PLAYER got the job done in his only "true" second off the layoff try and rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 14(AE)-5-7-1-16(AE) 

 

 Race 8

1.Yorkiepoo Princess

2.Your Love

3.Impasse

#6 YORKIEPOO PRINCESS won her only second off the layoff attempt and owns a boat load of back class. Slight edge in a competitive feature. #8 YOUR LOVE has nice figs, owns a career 7:3-3-0 mark, and sheds six pounds off a solid/troubled effort. Appears strong. #3 IMPASSE gets a positive jockey switch today and could perk up a bit. 

 

 Race 9

1.Callant

2.Whatstotalkabout

3.Tribecca

#3 CALLANT displayed vastly improved zip in the last when showing at nearly 40-1, and Quick ( who normally wins at just an 8% rate ) is 3 for 15 with turf sprinters returning in less than 36 days below the 40-1 mark, and just look at the prices -- $46, $76 & $26 !! #11 WHATSTOTALKABOUT has a win and a second in his only legit 2nd off the L/O tries, and is 4:0-1-2 when starting from the outermost two slots. Appears to be a legit "unders" candidate. #9 TRIBECCA has lost ground in the lane in 13 of 14, but goes short on the sod for just the second time, and Carmouche ain't giving up on this one just yet.  OFF TURF: 2-8-9-5-6

 

 Race 10

1.Smash Williams

2.Flatexcel

3.Street Cat Sam

There are three small ( but decent ) DRF Formulator stats to close out the afternoon, so let's get to 'em in no frills fashion. #7 SMASH WILLIAMS: The Toddster is 4:3-1-0 with locally based third off the layoff dirt stock who missed the baccala in last ( $3, $15 & $10 ). #9 FLATEXCEL: Toscano is a tidy 2-4 with runners of this ilk who were ITM less than 48 days back & are 20-1 or lower ( $6 & $9 ). #10 STREET CAT SAM: Ferraro ( 8% day to day ) is 3-fer 12 ( 25% ) with those going short at this level on the dirt off absences of 8 to 48 days ( $10, $12 & $23 ).   NOTE: AS OF 11:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #13 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 
Saratoga       ( Current )   20-100   ( $172.80 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-16  ( 12.5% )  Favorites Win %: 37-100  ( 37.0% )( As of Weds. morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017