KevinCoxItem

We rebounded nicely yesterday with the following:

--Three Rolling Pk. 3's of $3,914, $2,930, & $1,944

--Four Rolling Doubles of $593, $487, $172 & $89

--One ice cold exacta  of $32

--One exacta reverse  of $122

--Two winners of $8 & $20

--For the first time ever, a perfect 5 for 5 in our "Beatable Favorites" category

Special thanks to Sal M. who was so grateful for cashing on some winners, he sought me out at the track & pulled out and gave me a $100 bill for charity, which will be promptly donated to Old Friends at Cabin Creek. ( Then he followed that up with a couple of beers after Farrell won ! )

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Upcoming Charity Events:

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 7/30 - A.P. Smithwick

 

 Race 1

1.Oskar Denarius ( Ire )

2.Modem ( GB )

3.Personal Start

$175,000 Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick on tap here, and of COURSE, we encourage y'all to support the steeplechase program with some action !  #3 OSKAR  DENARIUS (IRE) makes his U.S. bow today, and does so toting the lightest jump weight of his career ( 136 pounds ). Gelding is a bit light from a class perspective, but is 2 for 6 off the shelf and may forget to stop if able to out gun the other speedster signed on. Longshot play. #2 MODEM (GB) is EXACTLY what steeplechase racing is all about -- a viable eight year old who;s making his 52nd start and still getting the job done ! There's a bit of "seconditis" of late, tho, so that's exactly where we'll spot him. #6 PERSONAL START completes the Guinness/Bangers & Mash/Apple Pie triple based on that nifty four race winning streak on display. 

 

      Race 2

1.Nominal Dollars

2.Etruscan

3.Crafty Concorde

#1 NOMINAL DOLLARS is 1 for 2 right here, 7:2-2-2 when breaking from the innermost three slots, and two of four returnees from the last have come back to win. #3 ETRUSCAN bested more than half the field when facing slightly tougher in a troubled trip down at Churchill on 6/17, and is now dropped a bit below the purchase price of two back. Believe it or not, this one goes from two turns to one for the first time in his career, and the cold Jose Ortiz picks up the mount. #7 CRAFTY CONCORDE hasn't been seen since my birthday ( make a note ! ) but returns for a top flight conditioner today, and needn't be much to hit the board.

 

Race 3

1.Shoe Loves Shoe

2.Battle Station

3.New York Song

#9 SHOE LOVES SHOE went wire to wire in his only turf start, and although the pedigree says that it may have been an aberration ( 260 Tomlinson ), we'll use because it was off the layoff and from the outside ( just like today ). #8 BATTLE STATION is but a neck shy of a perfect 2 for 2 mark on the gramma, with one of those wins happening right here; logical. #7 NEW YORK SONG has a win here, a win in his only second off the layoff, and had a near miss in teh lone attempt beneath Saez. That's enough for us.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-7-8

 

      Race 4

1.Benefactor

2.Lightning Buzz

3.Zap Zap Zap

#2 BENEFACTOR is dropped down to his lowest level yet after two disappointing efforts, and this barn is 6-13 with their mid level dirt sprinters who hit the board 6 to 10 days ago ( 8-1 or less ) & has a $2.75 ROI in that regards. Caveat emptor on the dropdown. #1 LIGHTNING BUZZ ( a nibbler by rote ) has been a part of the action in his last half dozen outings, and owns a 3:0-3-0 mark right here, as well as an 11:2-6-1 ledger at the trip. Perfect candidate for the "unders". #7 ZAP ZAP ZAP is anogther who has never been entered this cheaply, but is one for two off the shelf and may come along for a slice. 

 

      Race 5

1.Gump

2.The Sicarii

3.Irish Roar ( Ire )

#2 GUMP encountered a forest of trouble in last, when getting anxious in the starting apparatus, and smashing into it at the onset. Rudy now drops this one in for a tag for the first time, and owns a tidy 3 for 5 record when doing that in conjunction with adding blinkers to his local dirt runners ( $4, $5 & $12 ). Irad returns, and they paired up for a nice placing in the bow. #9 THE SICARII was a well beaten but well clear runner up in the overture at Thistledown, and did so despite encountering some difficulty at the onset. Hard trying Santana gets the call. #6 IRISH ROAR (IRE) has a maturity advantage over the entire field and boasts a 385 Tommy for the trip.

 

Race 6

1.My Dream

2.Course Correction

3.High Promise

#8 MY DREAM has posted decent turf figures for the initial two starts over the stuff, and note that the show horse from that afternoon came back to get the job done next time out. Mild choice. #9 COURSE CORRECTION disappointed s ome when finishing 4th at 4 to 5 down at Elmont back in May, and has a couple of decent morning moves for today's return to action. #3 HIGH PROMISE rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-2-9-5-6(MTO)

 

Race 7 

1.Broadway Run

2.Originator

3.Flashly

#10 BROADWAY RUN is but a half length shy of a perfect 2 for 2 mark, and drops 96 ounces while picking up a much better rider. Filly draws ideally and is hard to knock. We came thisclose to putting #7 ORIGINATOR up top, you know -- given the 3:2-1-0 mark in turf dashes -- but couldn't pull the plug because not only is Jose Ortiz doing poorly statistically thus far, but hasn't looked great out there as well. Feel free to toss into some rollers, but we'll be leaving underneath. #8 FLASHLY was flashy in procuring the sheepskin first time out at Arlington Heights, and did so despite acting up in the gate beforehand. We love horses shedding lb.'s off a score -- especially at double digit odds.  OFF TURF: 10-5-7-9-8

 

 Race 8

1.Special Relativity

2.Haynesfest

3.Solitary Gem

#8 SPECIAL RELATIVITY is 4:2-0-2 in all her dirt dashes, and 24% clan is a fat 8 for 13 with second off the claim allowance dirt sprinters who crashed the party less than 52 days ago & are beneath the 7-1 watermark today ( $3.33+ return on investment ). #1 HAYNESFEST has been 1-2-3 in her last half dozen dirt attempts, and with the solid collection of speed figures, this one is hard to leave out of the mix, no? #2 SOLITARY GEM gets off the rail a bit for today's second off the L/O try. 

 

 Race 9

1.Master Gunner

2.Classic Covey

3.Soglio

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #9 MASTER GUNNER ( "I am Gunnery Sergeant Hartman, your senior drill instructor. From now on, you will speak only when spoken to, and the first and last words out of your filthy sewers will be "Sir." Do you maggots understand that? "Sir, yes, sir!" "Bull, I can't hear you! Sound off like you got a pair!"  "[louder] Sir, yes, sir!" ) got the job done in his first start off nearly a two month layoff for Voss ( who's an excellent conditioner ), and as a matter of fact, she's 2 for 6 with optional turf stayers in the 17-34 day bracket > 4-1 & < 20-1 ( $27 & $11 ). #7 CLASSIC  COVEY has missed the superfecta but once in eight lifetime starts, and gelding's finest work has come beneath Junior. #1 SOGLIO comes in today off back to back career best performances -- including having climbed up the Beyer ladder in four straight -- and is 7:1-3-2 when breaking from the innermost three slots. Eminently playable.  OFF TURF: 1-7-6-8-2

 

 Race 10

1.Wods of Love

2.Nazay ( AE )

3.Union Patriot

#8 WORDS OF LOVE hasn't seen the scene in 51 weeks, but Hall of Famer Sheppard is a jazzy 5 for 13 when giving the biggest drop in the game to those who have been gone 190 days or more. Like that he brings a Mid Atlantic rider up here for the call. #16 NAZAY (AE) needs a little help to make it over to the races today, but should that come to bear, brings along with her a solid second place finish on Independence Day as well as a decent overall body of work. #5 UNION PATRIOT is second off the layoff today & is another taking the plunge.  OFF TURF: 11-16(AE)-10-1-8  NOTE:  AS OF 11:44, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES THE #13 & #12 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Saratoga       ( Current )    18-90   ( $151.70 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-16  (  12.5% )   Favorites Win %:  35-90    ( 38.9% )( As of Monday morning )  

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017