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One was the loneliest number on the day for us yesterday as two races came of the lawn, and the track condition changed twice during the card. ( No excuses --- we stunk. )

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Upcoming Charity Events:

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #6 Summer Punch  Race 4 - #6 Always Shopping  Race 5 - #4 Alternative Energy  Race 7 - #1 Lerner Entry Race 10 - #1 Powerstroke


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Saratoga - 7/29

 

 Race 1

1.Lou's Chardonnay

2.Promises Broken

3.Tough Old Bird

There are three ( small but decent ) DRF Formulator stats to begin the day today, so let's get directly to 'em. #5 LOU'S CHARDONNAY: McPeek is ( from a limited sampling ) 2 for 3 when going green to brown with his mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala in last ( $20 & $9 ). #7 PROMISES BROKEN: Kenneally pwns  3-8 mark with 3rd off the layoff mid level dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 last time out. #2 TOUGH OLD BIRD: Honk if you like Donk with runners of this ilk who scored 23-45 days back ( $10 & $6 ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 SUMMER PUNCH fills the bill, as Diodoro is 0-12 in all pertinent categories.

 

      Race 2

1.Arch of Troy

2.Hardly Mate

3.Magician's Vanity

#5 ARCH OF TROY got the job done the last time she was available for purchase, and although she hasn't hit the board in her last quartet of starts, we feel she is decently spotted today. #7 HARDLY MATE is a steady if not spectacular sort who finished second in this race in Independence Day. Meeeeeeekest of additions in the second half of the early Daily Double. #4 MAGICIAN'S VANITY finished second in the lone try over this strip, and chronic nibbler ( 42:2-10-7 ) picks up a hard trying Santana today.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-4-9

 

Race 3

1.Angel Food

2.Jo Jo's Candy 

3.Texas Music

#2 ANGEL FOOD gets a cozier slot today, and the penultimate start wasn't half bad.  Another slight choice in a toughie. #5 JO JO'S CANDY  went pillar to post like butter and toast first time out, but found the initial foray against winners a bit too much to bear. Drops back down here, and note that this one finished behind a next out winner in last. #6 TEXAS MUSIC has oodles of zip, and may grab a slice of Sicilian.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-7-3

 

      Race 4

1.Merada

2.Into the South

3.Style and Grace

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 MERADA ( a village in India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merada ) was moved up to second via DQ in the career starter, and The As-Man is a near perfect 7:6-0-1 with locally based 2YO second timers under these conditions at 9-1 or less who were ITM< 50 days ago ( whopping $6.40+ ROI ). Play of the meet. #3 INTO THE SOUTH was placed southward in the final chart when acting as green as grass in the bow down in Louisville first time out, but still must be kept in the mix, given the gameness shown. #4 STYLE AND GRACE is a $150,000 bred animal who went for nearly twice that at auction, and brings in tow a 391 Tomlinson figure for today's career starter.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 ALWAYS SHOPPING doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 2-1 ?

 

      Race 5

1.Tapping Colors

2.Length

3.Dig Deeper

#10 TAPPING COLORS has posted three successive solid numeros, draws ideally, and exits a race where six returnees have amassed a 6:2-1-1 cumulative mark in their next outings ( from five different starts ). The Beyer change for that allotment was -1.1 pts., and the ol' grey mare should get a perfect trip. #8 LENGTH  had a couple'a nice figs on the gramma last year, and you can essentially consider the last race a prep for this; price play. #5 DIG DEEPER has gotten better with each passing start, but note that the front wraps were added in last. Take a peek in the paddock.  OFF TURF: 2-6(MTO)-1-3(MTO)-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY doesn't make our first cut, so we went with some alternative selections.

 

Race 6

1.Outback Bob

2.Prioritize

3.Vegas Kitten

#7 OUTBACK BOB doesn't have the worst collection of running lines and has been gelded since the last. There's been a bullet turf breeze over at Oklahoma since the last, and you're getting Franco at a big number. #4 PRIORITIZE merely split the field in the first try against winners, but the speed figure went up about 10%, and Dylan ( second baby on the way ! ) Davis takes over this afternoon. #8 VEGAS KITTEN...Brown...Ortiz...cha cha cha.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-1A(MTO)-5-10-3

 

Race 7 

1.Souper Catch

2.Uno Mas Modelo

3.Runaway Lute

#2 SOUPER CATCH is 3:0-1-1 off the shelf, 1:0-0-1 right here, and 2:1-1-0 with Johnny V. ( No races overlapping ) That adds up to a 6:1-2-2 mark in some pertinent areas, and rates the slimmest of margins.  #3 SILVER DUST has lost his procreating abilities since the last and may wake up a bit. ( It sure would get my attention ! ) #8 UNO MAS MODELO may spice things up a bit.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We'll take a stand against both the #1 RUNAWAY LUTE ( Contessa 0-7 with 3rd off the layoff allowance stock off a win ) and the #1A HONORABLE TREASURE ( McPeek 0-14 with those going short in all. dirt deals odd L/O's of 29-57 days.  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. Due to a gate scratch the #1 will be our 3rd selection.

 

 Race 8

1.Maniacal

2.Vici

3.Rocket Heat

#1 MANIACAL always seems to give a good account of himself, is 4:0-2-2 when beginning from the inner two posts, and barn has won with their three "first off the claim" sprinting starters that are being hiked 50% or more ( $4, $4 & $5 ). #5 VICI finished second in both starts over this course, and closed out the exacta & tri in both tries over this course. Appears solid. #10 ROCKET HEAT has partaken in the exacta in his last quartet, is 15:6-2-2- at the trip, owns excellent speed, and Johnny hops on. Playable.  OFF TURF: 7-10-1-5-4

 

 Race 9

1.Farrell

2.Frost Wise

3.Verve's Tale

Today's feature honors the great Hall of Famer Shuvee, who's history can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuvee .  #7 FARRELL has been a part of the triple in her last quintet, is 6:3-1-1 when breaking from the outermost three slots ( some horses like that clearance ), and the Cat Man is 4 for 10 with graded dirt stayers who crashed the party 29-57 days ago & are 8-1 or less ( $10, $8, $5 & $3 ). Timid selection in a race where we were only inable to eliminate one horse on our first draft. #1 FROST WISE won her only start here & is 4:1-3-0 when starting from the wood. Rosario won by a country mile aboard this one in their lone pairing. #2 VERVE'S TALE is another who digs this joint ( 2:1-1-0 ) and is 6:2-2-1-1 off the shelf; seems to appreciate this trip as well.

 

 Race 10

1.Won't Be Missed

2.Singapore Trader ( AE )

3.Bigsouljoel

#11 WON'T BE MISSED has gone 39-43-56 in his three turf starts over firm ground, so right off the bat, who knows where his roof is. My buddy Jimmy is always good for a winner up here, and there are no Manila's signed on. #14 SINGAPORE TRADER (AE) needs two to declare in order to face the starter, but should that come to bear, brings with him a nice collection of speed figs while taking the biggest drop in the game. #9 BIGSOULJOEL owns a couple of decent running lines & is 3rd off the break this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 5-16(MTO)-9-1-11  We'll make the #1 POWERSTROKE our BEATABLE FAVORITE as Serpe is 0-6 with 3rd off the absence turfers going short to long.  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Saratoga       ( Current )    16-80   ( $123.20 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-11  (  18.1% )   Favorites Win %:  32-80    ( 40.0% )( As of Sunday morning )  

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017

Read 6178 times Last modified on Friday, 03 August 2018 12:43