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Just a chalky troika for us on a favorite laden Friday...

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Upcoming Charity Events:

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 7/28 - Jim Dandy

 

 Race 1

1.Winning Factor

2.Baggins

3.Fayette Warrior ( AE )

#9 WINNING FACTOR was an honest enough runner up in the career starter 51 days ago, and the pedigree ( 341 Tomlinson for the lawn ) tells us that it probably wasn't an aberration. Obviously, you must assume that the Ward runner ( our third choice ) will be fixin' to send early, but should that not come to fruition, this one could be long gone. #7 BAGGINS has improved with each passing start and is a legit 1-2 playah. #1A GAYETTE WARRIOR (AE) needs some help to draw into then body of the race, but should that come to fruition, there is the obvious ( and normative ) sizzling worktab fort this barn, and will have the perfect slot for the killer crossover--should he get in.  OFF TURF: 6-9-1A(AE)-2-4

 

      Race 2

1.Western Reserve

2.Dancetrack

3.Driven By Thunder

#3 WESTERN RESERVE finds himself at his lowest level to date, owns good speed, and has hit the board in 8 of 10 at the trip. Slimmest of margins in a wide open affair. #5 DANCETRACK has been claimed in three straight, and with good reason, as this one always seems to give a good account of himself. Numbers are solid and the lone "3rd off the layoff" try yielded a strong placing. #8 DRIVEN BY THUNDER is another zippy sort who owns a 3:1-1-1 mark when available for purchase, as Repole looks to unload.  OFF TURF: 5-1-3-2-10

 

Race 3

1.Shiloh Lane

2.Gray Nile

3.Consensus Thinking

#4 SHILOH LANE flopped in the most recent, but in reality, he really doesn't seem to dig soft turf, so let's forget that one. The penultimate start ( at his highest class level ) was ( from a speed figure aspect ) his best performance yet, so let's hang our hat on that for a second, shall we? Now, obviously today is on the dirt, so how will this one perform? We say better, given the pedigree, so why not take a shot at a price? #3 GRAY NILE has improved with each start this year, and seems to have worked through the issues that popped up in '17. Drops back down in search of that elusive first win. It must be nice to have money. Klaravich Stables, the owner of #5 CONSENSUS THINKING, purchased this one at auction for $210,000 in 2016, and despite having shown decent improvement from the first start to the second is now up for sale? Why? Well, this barn just likes to win. They don't care about "So many nickels and dimes" and have this one in a winnable spot today.  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, IF THE TRACK IS WET OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-8.

 

      Race 4

1.Fair Regis

2.Satisfy

3.My Roxy Girl

#5 FAIR REGIS down the lane. #8 SATISFY has been freshened up a bit since finishing a well beaten but well clear runner up versus similar down at Elmont a couple'a months ago, and has fired off not one--not two--but three bullets since that day. ( Uncharacteristic for a Mott runner ) We've always had a special place in our heart for the #3 MY ROXY GIRL. It's not just that she is a money making machine -- but how she does it -- seemingly digging deep and burying her head in each & every stretch try. Logical inclusion.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS AS FOLLOWS: FAST TRACK - 4-7-1   OFF TRACK - 7-2-4

 

      Race 5

1.Mucho ( AE )

2.Borracho

3.Wild Megdagliad'oro

A field chock full of firsters with the exception of two with solitary starts, and we'll give a tepid nod to the #11 MUCHO (AE) based on the decent debut along with the 421 Tommy which tells us there's still ample room for improvement. Don't think we're drunk for spotting the #4 BORRACHO in the place spot, as there are few nice moves on the worktab, and Lezcano has done better than his normal average when teaming up with this conditioner. #8 WILD MEGDAGLIAD'ORO is another who's been opening some eyes in the A.M., and brings in tow a near 400 Tommy for the dist.  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION FOR A FAST TRACK.  IF THE TRCK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 4-1-9.

 

Race 6

1.The J Y 

2.Dr. Shane

3.Uncle Gio

#2 THE J Y is 1 for 2 in 3rd off the shelf attempts, slides in eight post positions, and you may get some fair value here with some bigger named connections signed on. Mild choice. #5 DR. SHANE went pillar to post last time out, and although he goes long for the first time, the bloodlines say it shouldn't be much of an issue. Chance right back. #4 UNCLE GIO finished less than a half behind a next out winner in last and should be coming late.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-2-5-7-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:53, DUE TO THE RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ONLY AT 7 FURLONGS, OUR SELECTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: 7-1-8-11-9 ( for a fast track ) and 2-1-5-9-12 9 ( for a wet track ).

 

Race 7 

1.Old Time Revival 

2.Engage

3.Strike Power

#4 OLD TIME REVIVAL got a bit leggy late in the game at Laurel three weeks ago, and if you toss the start just prior ( checked ), then the most recent 1X speed figure over a fast track was a 90 in the Gotham at 36-1. Saratoga has a tendency to be a mite snobby when it comes to unfamiliar shippers w/unfamiliar trainer/jock combos, so the odds should be square enough. #3 ENGAGE has yet to miss an exacta, and who are we to argue with that kind of record. #5 STRIKE POWER has been working admirably of late for today's second off the break go round, and obviously has some back class.  NOTE: AS OF 11:29, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-3-5.

 

 Race 8

1.Sweetontheladies 

2.Petrov

3.Mr. Crow

#5 SWEETONTHELADIES has improved by six points over each of his last three calls to the post, and drops 64 ounces while sliding in two posts off that second place result. Pretty rare to get Johnny on a number such as this in a G1. #2 PETROV won his only time here last year & is 2-6 @ the dist. #6 MR. CROW had an inauspicious onset to the most recent, but was doing good work just prior to that & deserves another shot with an upgrade in the jockey dept., as well as a six pound reduction in weights.  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-3-1.

 

 Race 9

1.Manitoulin

2.Money Multiplier

3.Channel Maker

#9 MANITOULIN lost by less than a length versus similar type down at Belmont, and did so after banging into the side of the gate while being sent off at northwards of 30-1. As a matter of fact, just look st some of this one's comment lines: "Hit gate"..."Bumped twice"..."Lost Whip"..."Eight wide"..."Squeezed, taken up"..."Bumped start"... Yet despite all of that, this one  has managed to win 4 of 9 and still  may get overlooked by bettors today. Gelding is 1 for two when starting from the outermost two slots, so maybe with a clean trip... #8 MONEY MULTIPLIER has partaken in the exacta in 11 of 19 on the gramma, but is 0-3 in third off the L/O attempts; leaving underneath. #2 CHANNEL MAKER can clunk along late for a share.  OFF TURF: 7-6-1-9-4  NOTE: AS OF 1:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 10

1.Flameaway

2.Vino Rosso

3.Tenfold

Very weak rendition of the Jim Dandy here for 600 large, and here's how we see things: Vino Rosso will not be worse than second, Tenfold will not be worse than third, and Flameaway, could win -- just as easily as he could finish last. They'll all be quite chalky, but what we normally try to do ( from a betting standpoint ) when a situation like this arises, is to try and take advantage of a rare "guaranteed grind" situation -- albeit with exactas or a simple place bet. It ain't sexy, but you take what they give ya...  #1 FLAMEAWAY appears to be the controlling speed of this deal, and Casse is classy like Freddie Blassie with with graded dirt stayers who missed the board 23-47 days back & are 6-1 or less today, as he's 4-9 in that regards. #5 VINO ROSSO has the best adjusted last race figure in the lot, and figures a lot. #2 TENFOLD almost made us look brilliant when losing by less than a length to Justify in the Preakness at 26-1 ( still gave us the triple box, tho ! ) and was probably a bit better than the Belmont line belies. Should be rolling late.   NOTE: AS OF 11:35, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-3.

 

 Race 11

1.Frippery

2.Reversethedecision

3.Too Charming

#4 FRIPPERY bested a next out winner when scoring at first asking on June 20th, then got no respect when nearly lighting up the tote board at 23-1 when finishing second in the first try vs. winners. Rosario off to a nice start here. #6 REVERSETHEDECISION has been 1-2-3 in her triad of outings, including a runner up finish behind a next out winner down at the Shore; will take some action. #12 TOO CHARMING finished second in the lone "2nd off the break" go round ( improving the adjusted speed figure by more than 10% ), and comes in today off a lifetime best # @ 28-1. Will need to send from this outside slot.  OFF TURF: 1-7-3-6-4

 


Saratoga       ( Current )    15-69   ( $118.50 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-11  (  18.1% )   Favorites Win %:  28-69    ( 40.6% )( As of Saturday morning )  

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017