KevinCoxItem

 

Sometimes you're the bug...and sometimes you're the windshield.  Yesterday....we were the buuuuug. 

 

Upcoming charity events: 

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 7/27

 

 Race 1

1.Analyzethisandthat

2.Bankit

3.Sounds Good

We start out the Friday with three solid DRF Formulator stats, so let's hop to it !  There was one thing that we remembered from last year, and that there is actually a solid trainer stat in regards to 5% Russell Cash -- that he's 3 for 4 with local second time starters beneath 16-1 ( $7, $20 & $7 ). This one -- #1  ANALYZETHISANDTHAT   -- was yanking against the reins through a 21 flat opening quarter down at The Shore, and can do a better job today if able to relax a bit. #6 BANKIT posted a nice number when finishing second in the debut, and The As-Man is a crisp 7:5-0-1 with second time starters in this zip code who crashed the fiesta 20-40 days ago & are 7-2 or undah. Two things you need to keep in mind here: The Tommy has an asterisk next to it, so the sire is still unproven at the dx., and it was a four way blanket finish that afternoon ( with the winner flopping in a stakes next time out ), so don't give too much credit to the second place finish. #2 SOUNDS GOOD hasn't shown much in the mornings, but brings in a 383 Tomlinson figure, and Rice is an honest enough 8:3-1-1 with dirt firsters right here at 10-1 or less ( $13, $10 & $21 ). Irad gets the nod.   NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 1A-6-4.

 

      Race 2

1.Night Owl

2.Classic Lady

3.Radiant Beauty

#1 NIGHT OWL is curiously put up for sale after a win by Brown, but this barn owns a whopping 8 for 9 record when making those who scored less than 100 days ago available for purchase for the 1st time ( turf routes @ less than 7-2 ). The ROI for that sampling is a juicy $4.60, and Castellano rode this one to victory down in Oldsmar on what was a record setting day for Javier. #4 CLASSIC LADY improved by about 50% when switching surfaces & stretching out for the first time, and although the Beyers are light, Rubley is 3-7with turf stayers who got the sheepskin 22-40 days back ( $8, $8 & $9 ). #2 RADIANT  BEAUTY is another who can be all yours for half a C-note today, and had a couple of showings under Irad last year.  OFF TURF: 1-6-3-7-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:49, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.   NOTE: AS OF 1:27, Due to a late late scratch, the #5 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race 3

1.Wegotoldyougotsold

2.Carmine's Honor

3.Vicar's Legend

#1 WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but owns some beautiful works for today's comebacker, has won off the shelf, and Nevin is 4-10 with mid level dirt sprinters off hibernations of 120-240 days beneath 15-1 ( $8, $7, $12 & $7 ). #5 CARMINE'S HONOR comes in today off a career best fig., and ain't facing much for his first foray versus winners. #4 VICAR'S LEGEND as bad as any for the third slot. 

 

      Race 4

1.Canadian Flyer

2.The Queens Jules

3.Belgian

#1 CANADIAN FLYER hasn't faced the starter in a year & five days & is now in for a tag, but that's ai'ight, as Mott knows how to have 'em ready. This is attested by his 7 fer 14 mark when putting that initial "For Sale" sign on the rump of his turfers ( 40+ days ) w/an ROI of $3.15. #3 THE QUEENS JULES is also backed by a 50% trainer stat, as Ward is 4-8 when making his turf dashers available to be claimed for the 1st time at odds of 10-1 or less ( won < 53 days ago ), and there's a positive return on investment in that regards. #3 BELGIAN is confidently stepped up in the first start off the claim by Maker and enters off two solid performances.  OFF TURF: 6-4-2-7-1

 

      Race 5

1.Charlie McCoy

2.It's Hot Out

3.Freud's Affair

#1 CHARLIE MCCOY has improved from the first start to the second & the second to the third, and from an itty bitty sampling, Nevin is 2 for 4 with 'Toga runners of this ilk who were ITM last out ( $29 & $12 ). Note that there was a bullet breeze before the last sharp effort & there's another one heading into today. #3 IT'S HOT OUT is second off the shelf today & owns some nice zip. #10 FREUD'S AFFAIR has been a part of the tri in 11 straight & 14 of 15, so right off the bat, we love the consistency. Progno ( 18% on the norm ) is 3 for 10 with those who won 1-2 dozen days ago going short on the sand at this level ( 20-1 or under ), with the winners coming back $10, $7 & $6. 

 

Race 6

1.Conquest Hardcandy

2.Belle of the Spa

3.Bareeqa

Some decent trainer stats here, so let's give our loquaciousness a break & get to them in no frills fashion. #1 CONQUEST HARDCANDY: Ryerson ( from a limited sampling ) is is 2 fer 4 with local turf stayers at this class level off L/O's of 55 days or less ( 15-1 or < ) with the winners coming back $31 & $21. 1 for 2 when breaking from the pine. #3 BELLE OF THE SPA: Cox ( dig it ) is 6-15 with runners fitting this criteria off absences of 50-100 days ( 20-1 or under ) and has a $3.36 ROI to boot. #4 BAREEQA: Asmussen has won half of his 10 starts with 3rd off the L/O opt. turf stock going long who were on the board in last & are 10-1 or less ( $3.36 return on investment ).  OFF TURF: 1-3-2-4-5

 

Race 7 

1.Blasted Boss

2.Saida

3.Glory to Kitten

#9 BLASTED BOSS seems to be cycling nicely these days, and Calhoun ( 20% when putting on his boots in the morning ) is 16:6-4-2-2 with mid level turf routers returning off sabbaticals of 39 days or lower that are >1.75-1 & < 5.25-1 ( $2.55 ROI ); should be right there. #3 SAIDA won the last time she was entered for this price & is 1 for 3 @ the dx. #4 GLORY TO KITTEN got the job done both times she was entered for 30K or less and likes this trip.  OFF TURF: 4-1-7-3-9  NOTE: AS OF 3:38, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Sir Ballantine

2.Virtual Machine

3.Uncle Mojo

#1 SIR BALLANTINE exits a race where four runners have come back to go 4:1-0-3 in their next outings, improving their speed figures 6.5 points in the process; slight edge in a toughie. #8 VIRTUAL MACHINE was a lively and well clear runner up down in Joyzee 34 days ago, and five year old chestnut ( who still has his chestnuts ) is 3:1-1-0 off the shelf. Lezcano picking things up a bit after a slow stretch. #4 UNCLE MOJO owns a win at this trip and over this strip, and is an obvious inclusion. 

 

 Race 9

1.Hofburg

2.American Lincoln

3.Nicodemus

We positively LOVE the fact that Mott has eschewed the Jim Dandy for this spot with #1 HOFBURG, as he apparently feels that after some tough battles, Tapit colt deserves some class relief and a confidence booster. Appears to lay over this entire bunch, and in a field of plodders, I would expect to see Irad tip this one outside to keep him out of trouble. Jogola. #5 AMERICAN LINCOLN ( one half of the uncoupled Rice entry may be loose on the lead here, and if you were going to use a small exacta reverse as a saver, it'd be with this one. #4 NICODEMUS ( 2nd part of the entry ) is a biblical figure who's history can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicodemus , and colt appreciated the extra ground ( and extra 1/2 of a turn ) when getting the diploma at the Pea Patch & boosting the speed # by about 20% in the process. Plenty of upside. 

 

 Race 10

1.Lady Vicki

2.Aly's All Out

3.Posse's Paradise

#1 LADY VICKI finds herself at her lowest level to date, and new conditioner is GARGANtuan when being handed over a runner & spotting them in a dirt dash off 70-150 day hibernations ( 12-1 or less ), as he's 14:6-2-1 with that type. ( Parimutually speaking, is on the plus side of the ledger as well. ) #9 ALY'S ALL OUT was as sharp as a tack when losing by a schnoz first time out in April, as Irad got a case of butterfingers that afternoon, then followed that up with a slightly troubled fourth when being claimed. Another layoff ensued, and while we'll be using, we'll also be observing in the paddock. #5 POSSE'S  PARADISE could spice things up beneath a hard trying Abel.   NOTE: AS OF 12:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Saratoga       ( Current )    12-59   ( $105.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-11  (  18.1% )   Favorites Win %:  22-59    ( 37.3% )( As of Friday morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017