KevinCoxItem

 

Well, we had a day to remember yesterday.

Firstly we had our 2,000th winner for this site early on in the day, and we want to thank all our loyal readers for supporting us from our first score ( "Daddy's Kid" ) to now.

Then the fun began ! 

-Four on top winners of $12, $6, $8 & $9

-Three exacta boxes of $23, $77 & $14

-Six Rolling Daily Doubles of $33, $27, $107, $95, $48 & $26

-Five Rolling Pick Three's of $390, $743, $384, $180 & $117

-A Rolling Pick 4 of $2,240

AND another successful "Beatable Favorite:, as we now have a positive ROI for the meet.

Let's keep it going !! ( As I type at the track at 6:44 P.M. on Wednesday ! )

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Upcoming Charity Events:

Thursday 8/2 : "Equine Advocates Gala" taking place @ Canfield Casino @ 6:00 PM https://www.equineadvocates.org/ 

Sunday  8/5  : "After the Races" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Saratoga National @ 6:30 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

Friday  8/17  : "Rock N Rollin" benefit for Old Friends @ Cabin Creek taking place at Nanola in Malta from 7 PM to 10 PM https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #5 Eye Luv Lulu


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Saratoga - 7/26

 

 Race 1

1.Oskar Denarius ( Ire )

2.Modem ( GB )

3.Personal Start

$175,000 Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick on tap here, and of COURSE, we encourage y'all to support the steeplechase program with some action !  #3 OSKAR  DENARIUS (IRE) makes his U.S. bow today, and does so toting the lightest jump weight of his career ( 136 pounds ). Gelding is a bit light from a class perspective, but is 2 for 6 off the shelf and may forget to stop if able to out gun the other speedster signed on. Longshot play. #2 MODEM (GB) is EXACTLY what steeplechase racing is all about -- a viable eight year old who;s making his 52nd start and still getting the job done ! There's a bit of "seconditis" of late, tho, so that's exactly where we'll spot him. #6 PERSONAL START completes the Guinness/Bangers & Mash/Apple Pie triple based on that nifty four race winning streak on display.  NOTE: AS OF 7:51 A.M., THIS RACE HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL MONDAY.

 

      Race 2

1.Kazdan Entry

2.The Chamo

3.El Cucuy

#1 TOM'S MUSIC ( Carlito is 6:2-3-0 when going green to brown while removing the hood at < 60-1 --$12 & $11 ) & #1A HURACAN ( finished a troubled second at this level when going turf to dirt ) comprise a decent enough entry here. #6 THE CHAMO has been switched back to Contessa's barn today and that's fine by us, as this one has posted better figaros in that shedrow. #7 EL CUCUY closed out the tri in the debut and has the hood slapped on today by new conditioner Nevin. Pretty lousy race, to be honest with you. 

 

Race 3

1.Quality Time

2.Touch of Bling 

3.Annie Rocks

#4 QUALITY TIME is a fairly steady sort who's backed by a 6-17 trainer stat, as C-Squared is just that with second off the layoff optional turf dashers who were 1-2-3 in last ( 18-1 or under ), The ROI for that sampling is $3.68, and there's a sub category of 2 for 3 with those right here ( $36 & $7 ). #9 TOUCH OF BLING got beaten up a bit at the onset of last before fading at the half in a similar spot. Maker now puts this one up for sale for the first time today and the lone try over this course was a successful one. #5 ANNIE ROCKS rounds out the top three.   OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-5-2-4-6

 

      Race 4

1.Red Curls

2.Sweet Offer

3.Paddydunalot

#1 RED CURLS posted an adjusted 88 up here last year, and although there's a lot of water under the bridge since then, with maidens we often go anywhere in the P.P.'s to try and find a nice price. ( They're maidens for a reason, ya know. ) We have no problem using Saez at a big number. #12 SWEET OFFER is 2nd off the L/O and available for purchase for the 1st time. #8 PADDYDUNALOT is another with a "For Sale" sticker attached this afternoon, and stretches out under Carmouche, who's been doing a good job in picking up the minor checks thus far at the stand.  OFF TURF: 9-4(MTO)-6-8-2

 

      Race 5

1.Top of the Page

2.Got Even

3.Kerry Boy

#4 TOP OF THE PAGE has hung up some strong numbers in back to back tries, and appears to be nicely spotted for a barn that is 2 for 3 with 2nd off the break mid level dirt stayers who hit the board less than 65 days ago ( $20 & $4 ). #1 GOT EVEN is a game old chap who's crashed the fiesta in half of his career starts; that's reason enough to include with this bunch. #2 KERRY BOY has hit the board in 2 of 3 locally & owns a win at the trip as well. Gelding is 4:0-2-1 when going from the sod to the sand, and 7% clan is a decent 2 for 10 when making that move w/their routers that are 30-1 or lower.  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Quick Quick Quick

2.Alberobello

3.Indy Union

Well, we were hoping that Mary Lou would get her first win up here with one that we recently selected, but lo and behold she snuck one by us with a winner on Monday ! Anyhoo, #3 QUICK QUICK QUICK comes in today off a well clear runner up versus slightly weaker down at Churchill, and Wilkes is a tidy 3 for 6 when stretching out his 3rd off the layoff runners for the first time ( < 15-1 ). The winners came back $13, $8 & $9, and Castellano off to a fine start at the Spa. #4 ALBEROBELLO has yet to miss an exacta and must be included. #5 INDY UNION has improved in his quartet of two turn dirt forays, so who knows exactly where his ceiling is ?

 

Race 7 

1.Apollo's Leap

2.Riverboat Gambler

3.Lunar Phase

#1 APOLLO'S LEAP bested more than half the field when last seen down in Louisville, and did so despite a bit of trouble at the start. 11% shedrow is 4 for 5 with maiden special weight dirt dashers who missed the baccala in last & are under the 12-1 watermark today ( $23, $8, $6 & $18 ). #6 RIVERBOAT  GAMBLER was a dead game & well clear runner up in the Keeneland overture on April 18, and while this one looks like a major contender, keep in mind that Leparoux is 0-16 at the meet. #7 LUNAR PHASE has the wonder drug added after fading in the career starter and is eligible to improve this afternoon. 

 

 Race 8

1.Terrible Day

2.Secret House

3.Battlle Midway

#8 TERRIBLE DAY (ARG) had the front wraps added in last, but that didn't dissuade Amoss from plunking down 50 large for this colt down in CD before the 6/24 score. There's been a bullet gate breeze since the score ( always a positive sign for someone who likes to come from a bit off the pace ), and as this group appears to be very well matched, we'll take the double digit odds here. #2 SECRET HOUSE has partaken in the exacta in 4 of 5, posting solid figs in each of those tries. Sensible. #4 BATTLE MIDWAY is doubled up in price off the claim/win by Contessa and is 9:2-0-3-2 in combined 1X to 2X events & first off the L/O go rounds.   NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 9

1.Long Haul Bay

2.T Loves a Fight

3.Weekend Hideaway

Today's 9th race is named after probably the most interesting person in the history of Saratoga -- John Morrissey. Some of his story can be found right here and I recommend you check it out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Morrissey  #3 LONG HAUL BAY has only one legit blemish in the boxscore, and that came just prior to an elongated break, so perhaps something went amiss that day. From a small study, Brown is 3-6 w/ungraded dirt dashers off sabbaticals of 34-102 days below 8-1 ( $8, $3 & $3 ). #2 T LOVES A FIGHT is 1 for 3 off the shelf, 1 for 2 right here, and two for two when breaking from the innermost two slots. NONE of those races overlap, so that amounts to a 4 for 7 mark, and we'll chunk into the hopper at 15-1. #8 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY finished second in his only turf to dirt attempt, and owns the kind of local "declining" record that we've grown to admire ( 10:4-2-1 ), as it shows he knows where the line is.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 EYE LOVE LULU fills the bill, as for all his miracles of late, Servis is 1 for 28 with second off the L/O ungraded stock who were IN the money in last ( 0-10 with dirt stock ). 
 

 Race 10

1.Liora ( AE )

2.Devious Charm

3.Two Shakes

#13 LIORA (AE) needs a lot of help to draw in, but will be our play of the meet ( so far ) should that come to fruition. Gal has fired off three bullet works thus far ( two of them gate breezes, sire was 2 fer 2 going short on the sod, maternal grandsire was a "champeen" on the green stuff, and this one is a half to one who scored in his only turf sprint ( 72K ). But wait -- there's more !! The Cat Man is a groovy 8:6-1-0 with two year old filly firsters at this level, with the winners coming back $20, $6, $7, $6, $9 & $4, and of course, we'll be loving the slot if she makes it over to the races. #11 DEVIOUS CHARM tries the gramma for the first time today, and that will probably end up being her preferred surface, and has exited a couple'a live heats. #6 TWO SHAKES has been moving more than a lambs' tale in the morning, and went for 310 large at auction; discount Ward firsters at your own peril.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-1(MTO)-5-1A(MTO)-3

 

Saratoga       ( Current )    12-50     ( $105.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   2-10  (  20.0% ) Favorites Win %:  19-50    ( 38.0% )( As of Thurs. morning ) 

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Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )       Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1905-9004 ($15,457.40)   Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3301-9098( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1990-9572  ($16,276.60) Beatable Favorites : 294-1054( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3464-9687( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017