KevinCoxItem


 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 7/8

 

 Race 1

1.Joyful Heart

2.Winning Factor

3.No Way Never ( Ire )

#5 JOYFUL HEART ( no Lasix ) wire to wire. #2 WINNING FACTOR was snagged at Ocala just three months ago for more than eight times the breeding price, and the workouts tell us that it was probably a smart idea. Grey runner is bred nicely for the green stuff, but Bobby B. not really known for his prowess with firsters, so we'll leave beneath. #4 NO WAY NEVER (IRE) ( a great Irish song, so we've included the video ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_4KboYi40I  ) is another who's been faring well in the mornings for today's initial foray, and you may want to Ttoss this Ward runner into some of your action.  OFF TURF: 2-1-6-5-3

 

      Race 2

1.Adventist

2.Marriage Fever

3.Bar None

#2 ADVENTIST ( who once finished third in the Wood Memorial ) is entered for the second lowest price of his career today, and although the last two running lines are quite grotesque, we always go back three races to find something positive, and the prorated # from the May 6th turf event actually ain't half bad. I know we're asking a lot, but there ain't no world beaters in here. #6 MARRIAGE FEVER was a wide, but honest enough third in a nearly identical spot three weeks ago & is logical once again. #7 BAR NONE finished ahead of our secondary selection in the most recent, and we see no reason to exclude from the tri once again.

 

Race 3

1.Professor Snape

2.Have Another

3.Call Triple A

#4 PROFESSOR SNAPE has been a part of the triple in 11 of 12, so right off the bat, you have to admire this one's consistency. Additionally, we consider this a drop in class for Gullo, ( who has taking over the New York training duties from Jacobsen for a while ) and gelding loves this strip. #6 HAVE ANOTHER shoots for the hat trick today, as well as a perfect 3 fer 3 mark at Elmont. Must include. #8 CALL TRIPLE A was perfectly spotted when winning at first asking at Philadelphia Park, and now gets the wonder drug for his return to the races. Should sit a perfect trip from this slot. 

 

      Race 4

1.Overnight Success 

2.Teryn It Up

3.Carom

#7 OVERNIGHT SUCCESS is trained by Jason Servis. Apparently that's all I need to know these days. #8 TERYN IT UP has improved with each start & has the hood removed by Lynch, who has two entered here. #2 CAROM hung up a big fig in the overture, but that was going one turn, so we won't be getting too excited here. On the other hand, Lasix is added for this cheaply bred runner ( 5K ) who was purchased for 185 big ones at auction, and we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 6-2-1-5-8

 

      Race 5

1.Go Big or Go Home

2.Truly a Moon Shot

3.Drawing Away Entry

#7 GO BIG OR GO HOME merely split the field when claimed for a quarter back in mid May, so trainer does the smart thing and drops this one down a few pegs. Pre-claim pilot sticks around ( which we always dig ), and we'll give this one another shot. Speaking of another shot, we'll slide the #8 TRULY A MOON SHOTbeneath in the exotics, as this one appears to prefer the fringes ( 21:1-6-5 lifetime  and 3:0-0-3 right here ). This one has lost ground in the lane in 19 of 21, so be careful. We feel either the #1 ANYTHING PAZIBLE ( increased #'s over the last quintet ) or the #1A FLATEXCEL ( 3:0-2-0 at Big Sandy ) is capable of hitting the board here. 

 

Race 6

1.Major Force

2.New York Song

3.Unlockthepotential

#4 MAJOR FORCE goes for three in a row today, and we like that the last score came when being hiked up in class, as well as being able to close into a slow opening quarter. #1 NEW YORK SONG is 1 for 2 off the shelf, 1 for 2 when breaking from the pine, and has a couple of decent moves on the worktab for today's return to action. Would be no surprise at a decent price beneath one of our favorite riders. #3 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL was "rewarded" with a maiden breaking win last October by having his pistachios removed, and aside from neighing in a much higher pitch, has been working sensationally up at Oklahoma for today's comebacker. Absolute MUST inclusion.  OFF TURF: 3-5-6-8-7

 

Race 7 

1.Homeland Security

2.Summersault

3.Estrechada ( Arg )

#2 HOMELAND SECURITY left herself with a little too much to do after trailing by 14 lengths off a 48 4/5th's opening fraction, but still gained some ground before losing by less than two at 4 to 5. Filly -- who sheds five pounds today -- improved by about 15% in the other second off the L/O try last summer, and we see more tahn enough reason to take 5-1 in this spot. #1 SUMMERSAULT Beyered in the 90's over six starts from 2/2/17 to 9/2/17, then slipped down a decade over the same amount of races from 9/24/17 to 5/5/18, so obviously this one has slipped a bit, but we see some hope here. Mare slides in from the seven hole to the wood, while dropping in class & getting an upgrade in the speed figure dept. Not hopeless at this level. #5 ESTRECHADA (ARG) has a win & a showing in her only 2nd off the break tries on the gramma, & is reunited with a hot Prat, who lost by 1 3/4 aboard her in this race last year.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-5-7

 

 Race 8

1.Love That Jazz

2.Dezzer

3.Wicked Freud

#11 LOVE THAT JAZZ tries the green stuff for the first time today, and you know what -- his breeding ain't that bad for the stuff. Recent body of work, tho a bit light, can be jacked up a bit by the decent Tomlinson figure for the lawn, and the runner up from the last came back to score next out ( improving 11 pts. in the process ). Note that this one is 2 for 4 when breaking from the outside...compared to being 2-17 from other slots. #1 DEZZER has won 3 of 4, owns oodles of speed, and is better suited for the sod than the sand. Will be gunning early. #2 WICKED FREUD has closed out the tri in his last troika, so we'll spot him there once again.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-7-4

 

 Race 9

1.Cosita Mia

2.Dixie Serenade

3.Take Charge Paula

#1 COSITA MIA rang up an adjusted 77.8 when winning right outta the box for Albertrani ( something Tommy only does 5% of the time ), and while the figure doesn't quite get the pulse racing, there's still some room for improvement, and the 366 Tommy tells us such. Obviously, this one will have to work out s dream pocket trip beneath Luis, but as a few heavy hitters have some question marks behind them, we'll swing away. #6 DIXIE SERENADE has crashed the party in 8 of 9 dirt forays and has essentially gotten better with each and every start. Nice training job by Coletti here, and you're getting 15-1 on a runner who's been less than 4-1 in 8 of 10 outings. They tried blinkers with the #7 TAKE CHARGE PAULA in her last two, and she apparently digs them as much as I dig liver & onions, so off they come today, and that's fine by us. She has that type of declining record that signals toughness to us ( 11:5-3-1 ) and we wouldn't be surprised to see Joel have this one more forwardly placed early on.

 

 Race 10

1.Fleet Admiral

2.La Manche

3.Thank You So Much

Today marks the return of Accolade. For those who don't remember, this was the horse that was struck in the face several times by the assistant starter at Delaware, who returned to work in less than two weeks with no further explanation. We won't be using him here & instead will give the nod to #10 FLEET  ADMIRAL. With maidens we look anywhere in the P.P.'s to find some value ( as they're winless for a reason ya know ), and this one rang up a career best 75.2 in the only "3rd off the shelf" attempt ( @ 88-1 ! ). Leo actually had a winner here on Friday. #4 LA MANCHE had a brutal trip in the first try off the Maker claim, and deserves another shot--especially with a switch to Ortiz. #11 THANK YOU SO MUCH should be coming late.  OFF TURF: 3-7-8-4-11

 


Belmont          ( Current )  76-444   ( $662.00 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 151-444  ( 34.0% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )       Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8497 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3127-8591( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9065  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3290-9179( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017