KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that today I will be at Indiana Grand doing on site/on air selections & analysis for some Quarter Horse trials and stakes action !!  Be sure to come on by and say hi ! 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 7/7

 

 Race 1

1.Bronxville

2.Social Paranoia

3.Larceny

#8 BRONXVILLE has a couple of okay moves on th worktab for today's career starter, and is a February bred facing some younger foes today. Runner is a half to a 2-10 dirt dasher, and we have no problem with the draw or jockey of choice. Slight edge. #4 SOCIAL PARANOIA hung up a big fig in the bow, and was a daylight clear runner up to the rest of the lot. Colt has been working well since and this is a deserving favorite. #3 LARCENY had a bullet gate breeze on June 13th, and that's something that always merits automatic inclusion. Factoring in that this one was purchased at Ocala three months ago for 12 times the stud fee ( as well as the 385 Tomlinson figure ) and you have the makings of a live runnah.

 

      Race 2

1.Candid Desire

2.Daddy DT

3.Life In Shambles

#1 CANDID DESIRE came from the back of the pack to light up the tote board at 22-1 nearly four weeks ago, and although that came versus weaker, we are once again enticed by the solid mutuel offering. #3 DADDY DT ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is 1 for 3 in 3rd off the L/O attempts, 1 for 2 on this strip, and jockey/trainer combo are 32% together. Appears live. #2 LIFE IN SHAMBLES ( also put in on Friday ) has done pretty well right here and is 3:2-1-0 in her last triad when put up for sale. 3:1-1-0 mark off the bench duly noted as well.   NOTE: AS OF 10:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Sun Lover ( GB )

2.Adonis Creed

3.Parauari ( Fr )

#1 SUN LOVER (GB) showed little when facing similar type down in Kentucky, but the American debut ( when finishing second behind a next out winner ) was just fine, and this one was a nice third when in a "3rd off the L/O" try back in England. We like what Prat's been doing here, as we've always been fond of the west coast riders on east coast sod, as they have a tendency to have their runners more forwardly placed. #3 ADONIS CREED was knocked out of action after the 11/23 outing, but Cox knows how to have 'em ready and this one owns a touch of back class. #6 PARAUARI (FR) bested more than half the field in the American overture and should move up off that effort.  OFF TURF: 2-8-7-6-9

 

      Race 4

1.Holiday Bonus

2.County Court

3.I'm the Captain Now

#8 HOLIDAY BONUS may have needed the first off the L/O try -- as he went from 2nd to 7th in the stretch -- and we like that there have been a couple of breezes since then. Mild edge in a wide open affair. #1 COUNTY COURT didn't disgrace himself in the first try against winners and is third off the break this afternoon. #6 I'M THE CAPTAIN NOW is a steady if unspectacular sort who is another that handled himself honestly enough when outside of the maiden ranks in last, and runner who's crashed the superfecta in ten straight seems destined to do so again.  OFF TURF: 1-6-5-3-7

 

      Race 5

1.Nigel's Destiny

2.Mr. Dougie Fresh

3.Exulting

#6 NIGEL'S DESTINY comes in today off a career best effort, and we actually consider this a drop in class from that day. Seems like a perfect spot for 'Miah to steal a purse while keeping this one claim protected. #8 MR. DOUGIE FRESH outran his odds when finishing second in a nearly identical spot right here two fortnight's ago, and we see no reason to leave out of the mix today. #9 EXULTING rounds out the top three.

 

Race 6

1.Firenze Fire

2.Rugbyman

3.Seven Trumpets

First stakes race on the day is the Grade 3 Dwyer ( named after Mike & Phil Dwyer ), which was originally run in 1887, and it's a competitive ( tough to decipher ) event, fer sure. We've always been fond of #7 FIRENZE FIRE's grittiness, but alas, the Derby just proved too much for this one, as he spit the bit at the halfway point. favorite jockey returns today, and keep in mind that this on is 4 for 6 going 1X ( 0-4 otherwise ). Not sure if Servis ( batting at a mere 58% at Belmont/Monmouth/Deleaware ) has given up on the "classic routing" game, but this looks like a nice place for a comebacker. #3 RUGBYMAN has improved with each start, and we always like when a trainer has the confidence to make an equipment change after a solid performance ( blinkers on ). A must use in all your rollers. #2 SEVEN TRUMPETS is another who excels at one turn, and pilot makes the northern sojourn for the call. 

 

Race 7 

1.Eye Luv Lulu

2.Whitmore

3.Limousine Liberal

On Stars and Stripes Day, we're gonna blast off with the 3-2-1 triple in the G2 Belmont Sprint. You have to admire a horse like #3 EYE LOVE LULU, who's still going strong at the age of 7, and just look at that lifetime mark of 44:10-10-5. Gelding goes over the 700K mark today with even a 5th place finish, but we're expecting bigger things than that, given that this speedy sort ( with honest enough numbers ) draws directly outside our other two contenders. Hoping for a wire job. #2 WHITMORE has cracked the century mark in 3 of 4, and has the quintessentially perfect "declining" lifetime mark of 20:10-4-2. We were on the #1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL at 15-1 in the Met Mile, and he handled himself quite well in closing out the triple on the Belmont Stakes card. Gelding is 2 for 2 when breaking from the pine and has some other nice stats in relevant categories as well. Switches back to Jose today. 

 

 Race 8

1.La Signare

2.Significant Form

3.Chipolata ( Fr )

Million buck Oaks here on the gramma... #7 LA SIGNARE went wire to wire against weaker over this course, and given the top flight turf breeding, we expect this one to get better & better and be a force through the summer. Rosario can walk the dog with the best of them on the turf. #1 SIGNIFICANT FORM has gotten better with each passing start, and how do you not include a runner as such who's won 3 of 5 ? #2 CHIPOLATA (FR) isn't as battle tested as some of the other entrants signed on, but being a first time North America runner, goes through the usual gamut of changes that they do ( a drop in weight, first time wonder drug, and first time going 2X on a left handed course ). May not win here, but Franco will be going all out to grab a piece to appease the barn for 'Toga.  OFF TURF: 3-5-8-10-4

 

 Race 9

1.Dr . Dorr

2.War Story

3.Tapwrit

Surburban Handicap on tap here, and for some edification on this famed race ( won by ol' banana nose, Eddie Arcaro a record eight times ) click on this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburban_Handicap  We see this race going directly through #5 DR. DORR, and only see one horse with a decent shot of upsetting the apple cart. This Baffert trainee ( owned by his wife ) has monstah figs in his last two, and possesses the type of front end speed that we like to see at this tricky configuration. Cross entered in Iowa yesterday, so check the changes. We always go back three starts to come up with a runner to toss into the mix, and I s'pose we have to do that with the #2 WAR STORY given the solid adjusted numeros 2 & 3 starts back. may not be a fan of the trainer, but we sure do respect the horse. We'll toss in the #4 TAPWRIT because of the big win over the course, and obviously, the back class, but will be grossly overbet.  NOTE: SHOULD OUR TOP CHOICE BE SCRATCHED, WE'LL BE MAKING SOME AMENDMENTS.

 

 Race 10

1.Analyze It

2.Catholic Boy

3.Hunting Horn ( Ire )

Not sure this race is worth 1.2 million, but we'll give the nod to the #3 ANALYZE IT, who is but a neck shy of a perfect 4 for 4 mark. ( And that Pennine Ridge was one of the oddest stretch runs we've seen in quite some time ). 5-2 looks like a gift. #7 CATHOLIC BOY has gone 63-76-83-96 in his quartet of turf outings, so who knows where the ceiling is at. #3 HUNTING HORN (IRE) has been doing some good work over in Europe and has some good experience going left handed. Lasix can't hurt.  OFF TURF: 7-9-8-5-6

 

 Race 11

1.Last Chant

2.Dream Passage

3.Stag of Sylvia

#1 LAST CHANT posted an adjusted 64.6 in the lone try over firm ground ( against open company ) and may shock with today's cutback. #9 DREAM PASSAGE is beginning to give the impression of becoming "that" kind of a maiden, but takes the biggest drop in the game and I suppose we have to include, right? Right ?? #6 STAG OF SYLVIA gets a positive jockey upgrade today.  OFF TURF: 4-2-6-9-13(MTO)


Belmont          ( Current )  75-433   ( $654.40 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 148-433  ( 34.2% )( As of Saturday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )       Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8497 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3127-8591( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9065  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3290-9179( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017