KevinCoxItem


Just a reminder that tomorrow I will be at Indiana Grand doing on site/on air selections & analysis for some Quarter Horse trials and stakes action !!  Be sure to come on by and say hi !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 7/6

 

 Race 1

1.Too Much Data

2.Herecomesyourman

3.Fact Check

#1 TOO MUCH DATA went six wide in an eight horse field last time out, and that's simply something that cannot be done in a turf sprint if you expect to win with any regularity. There's a positive jockey switch in play today ( as McCarthy is cold both here and at the Shore ), and the pedigree says that today's stretchout is within reach. #2 HERECOMESYOURMAN was a daylight clear runner up versus slightly weaker a bakers' dozen days back, and on the whole is 6:0-5-1 over this oval. Logical incorporation here. #5 FACT CHECK has hit the board in 10 of 11 lifetime, so right off the bat, there's that. Then when you factor in that Servis has been working "miracles" this stand ( been about 50% all along ), it makes this one a must use as well.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-3(MTO)-2-1-7

 

      Race 2

1.Flying Pleasantly

2.Tiffany's Vision

3.Abeja Negra

#3 FLYING PLEASANTLY split the field in a nearly identical spot three weeks ago, ( at 45-1 no less ) and if there's ever a race that's meant for Persaud to win, it's this one. Yikes. #4 TIFFANY'S VISION has partaken in the superfecta in her last quartet ( after never having done so in the first ten starts ), and although the Beyers leave a lot to be desired, we like that she's been sniffing the winner's circle of late. #5 ABEJA NEGRA catches firm ground for the second time today & could be live for a low percentage barn that's hit the board in 4 of 9 at the meeting.

 

Race 3

1.You're to Blame

2.Timeline

3.Sunny Ridge

#4 YOU'RE TO BLAME exits a race where he finished two schnozes behind a next out winner who improved his Beyer # by about 5.2% in the process. You may get a decent offering on this one compared to our following two selections. #3 TIMELINE is 5:4-1-0 going one turn ( with two of those wins coming at this trip & over this strip ) & is completely logical. #1 SUNNY RIDGE has closed out the exacta in both Elmont outings ( a G1 & G2 ), has a 2nd & a 3rd in third off the L/O tries, has a pair of runner up finishes beneath Irad, and won the only time he began from the rail. That's a 7:1-5-1 cumulative mark with some pertinent stats ( w/only one placing overlapping with another ), and given the white hot barn, we are compelled to leave in the hopper.

 

      Race 4

1.Isabelle's Joy

2.Trish the Dish

3.Jolie Bay ( AE )

Phil Serpe has lit up the tote board with a couple'a maidens this spring/summer, and we're not gonna get fooled thrice. Dam of the #3 ISABELLE'S JOY was 2 for 2 on the gramma, and obviously the top side of the family tree is spectacular. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #1 TRISH THE DISH here, as there's a bullet breeze on the Oklahoma sod amidst a bevy of ordinary moves. #11 JOLIE BAY (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter today, but should that come to bear, brings in tow a solid showing in this race three weeks ago with a nice numero as well.  OFF TURF: 6-10-5-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 3:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Sol the Freud

2.Saratoga Heater

3.Data Driven

#3 SOL THE FREUD is a steady if not spectacular sort who finds himself at this level for just the second time in 38 outings, and is reunited with Maragh--for whom he's had his last two wins. #4 SARATOGA HEATER is 1 for 2 going from green to brown, and is halved in price today while getting Irad back in the irons. #1A DATA DRIVEN has won his only two start when available for purchase as well as his only two outings at this locale ( one win overlapping ), and we've always been fond of the "apprentice to journeyman" angle.  NOTE: AS OF 3:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Last Stage

2.End of Spirits

3.Identity Politics

#8 LAST STAGE has been beset by a couple of layoff lines in his brief career, so Kiaran gives this one a bit of a makeover for today's return to the races ( First time turf, new pilot, and no more tes-tee-klees ). The turf breeding is most definitely there ( Tapit out of a Storm Cat mare ), and we like the triad of bullets on the poly up at Saratoga. Dylan has picked it up a bit over the last month ( 12.3% ), and we're hoping the other half of the entry is scratched to help the odds. #2 END OF SPIRITS has found the recent surface switch to his liking ( judging by the #'s ), but those were going long. This is a whole different ball game, but getting the wonder drug today should help matters. #7 IDENTITY POLITICS, Chad, Jose, turf, cha cha cha.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-3-1A  NOTE: AS OF 3:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 

1.Candirita

2.Point to Remember

3.Illudere

#1 CANDIRITA is a January bred facing younger foes for his career starter, and has been working extremely well over the main track here. We normally eschew betting firsters starting from the pine, but the extra half panel can come in handy should this one break a bit tardily. Slight edge in a toughie. #8 POINT TO REMEMBER has Lasix added for today's 2nd off the shelf try, and there was a crisp move over the training track a week ago. #9 ILLUDERE ( second half of the uncoupled entry w/ P.T.R. ) has been going lights out in the A.M.'s for today's overture and could be any kind. 

 

 Race 8

1.Battle In Seattle ( Fr )

2.Blessed Halo

3.Masked

#1 BATTLE IN SEATTLE (FR) was nicely spotted when shipped to Presque Isle a touch over a month ago for the confidence booster, and although that was on the synthetic, the turf finale back in France was okay, and there's lots of green in the genealogy, so we'll give this one a tepid nod. #6 BLESSED HALO got the job done in his lone "3rd off the L/O" try, and catches firm ground for just the second time. #3 MASKED has two wins & two showings from as many starts on the verde, and you have to respect the speed shown. Cox takes over today, so there shouldn't be much slippage in the trainer dept.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-3-5(MTO)-2(MTO)-9 

 

 Race 9

1.La Naturel ( Ire )

2.Hoponthebusgus

3.Samara

#1 LA NATUREL (IRE) was an honest runner up when strpping up in the first start off the claim for Kerry, and as Saez ( understandably ) signs on for the bigger narn here, his replacement does well with front end runners on the sod. #11 HOPONTHEBUSGUS is 1 for 3 on this course, 4:2-1-1 when starting from the outermost two slots ( 10:1-2-0 otherwise ), and has a nice overall body of work; sensible. #7 SAMARA rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 7-8-9(MTO)-4(MTO)-1

 

Belmont          ( Current )  75-424   ( $654.40 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 147-424  ( 34.7% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )       Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8497 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3127-8591( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9065  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3290-9179( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017