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Hope everyone had a fantastic say yesterday !

It wasn't just her 1,100 wins, or that she left the game as one of America's most successful female riders, but it was the classy manner & grace with which she handled herself that endeared her to so many. Remembering Diane Nelson on the one year anniversary of her passing...

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 7/5

 

 Race 1

1.Miss Pugsley

2.Sue's Fortune

3.Gloria Jean

#3 MISS PUGSLEY has been moving like Cousin It in the mornings, but there are a few dirt dashing winners in the family tree, and Gullo is 2 for 3 with maiden special weight dirt sprinters starting things out right here, and they returned a healthy $47 & $28. Price play in an opener where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #1 SUE'S FORTUNE has a couple of okay moves on the docket for today's career starter, and the 376 Tommy is the highest in the lot from all the FTS'ers. #5 GLORIA JEAN is cheaply bred, but lures Maragh & needn't be much to hit the board here.  NOTE: AS OF 1:14, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-1-6.

 

      Race 2

1.Athera

2.She's So Fine

3.A Dixie Twister

#7 ATHERA is aggressively hiked up more than 50% in the first start off the claim for Reynolds, and why not, as this one has won 2 of 3. Pre claim pilot takes over today ( which we always dig ), and we'll give this one the nod in an uninspiring affair. #3 SHE'S SO FINE is another one fresh off the purchase, and Contessa cuts the lady back which is fine by us, as she got the job done the only time that was attempted. #2 A DIXIE TWISTER has been befallen by a few layoff lines of late, but has the hood added today & may perk up.  OFF TURF: 4-3-6-5-2

 

Race 3

1.Dustin's Comet

2.Mad Munnys

3.Bartlett's Mark

#7 DUSTIN'S COMET is a perfect prorated play in this spot. While at first glance, the initial two turf forays may not look like much, but just by comparing the Tomlinsons of the green to the brown ( 232 to 366 ) we're expecting a SUBSTANTIAL improvement today. We like the early speed shown in last as well as the fact that Dylan has stuck around. ( Could the first two have been "preps" for today? Hmmm.... ) #1 MAD MUNNYS is the only one we'll be using as a saver here, and I s'pose you have to, given the speed figures in 2017 along with a substantial drop in class today. The layoff is nothing to sneeze at, so see how this one is acting in the warmup. #3 BARTLETT'S MARK has lost ground in the lane in each & every start, but comes in here off a career best # ( his first over fast ground ) and may land a share. 

 

      Race 4

1.Hampton Point

2.Into the Breach

3.#1 Prompt

We're going to blast off with the 3-2-1 triple in today's 4th... #3 HAMPTON POINT displayed a bit of a "Z" pattern in the last, when losing 8 lengths from the start to the quarter, before re-gaining 10 1/2 lengths from that point to the line. Ortiz sticks around, and Toner is a tidy 3 for 8 with Belmont maiden special weight turf routers in the 18-36 day range below 30-1 ( $7, $10 & $12 ). #2 INTO THE BREACH is beginning to give the appearance of becoming a professional maiden, as that 10: M-6-1 mark belies, but he has a maturity edge over the rest of the field & is kinda hard to leave out, no? #1 PROMPT has been switched over to Leana Willaford today from Billy Mott ( who she was an assistant for ), and this one has improved over his troika of outings to date. Wouldn't be surprised to see another goodie.  OFF TURF: 1-7-2-3-5(MTO)

 

      Race 5

1.Immunity

2.Tricked Up

3.Glenrichment

These three & no more for all our rolling action... #1 IMMUNITY is a little bit of a nibbler, but slides in eight slots today, & Rosario stays aboard. #6 TRICKED UP hasn't been in action for nearly seven months, but gets a MAJOR upgrade in the jockey dept. today, and owns a 4:1-1-0-1 mark off the shelf. #5 GLENRICHMENT has gone 44-80-81 in his three well spread out turf attempts, and could do even better catching firm ground for the first time.  OFF TURF: 6-2(MTO)-1-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 1:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Admission Office

2.Morrison

3.War Chest

#6 ADMISSION OFFICE went from zero to hero in the May bow at 13-1 for Brown ( what? ), and said conditioner is a poyfect 5 for 5 with optional turfers going long at Elmont off a winning debut ( $5.08 return on investment ). #10 MORRISON owns a bunch of speed, has crashed the party in his last four, and 18% Sharp is exactly that with optional turf stayers who were 1-2-3 14-40 days ago & are 14-1 or less today, as he's 17:6-2-6 in that regards ( $2.82 ROI ). #4 WAR CHEST enters off a career best numero & is 3rd off the bench today.  OFF TURF: 7-2(MTO)-3-1-4

 

Race 7 

1.Elios Milos

2.New York Hero

3.Proletariat

When I see a name I'm not familiar with ( such as the #4 ELIOS MILOS ), I search to see what it means. What I found was a cute You Tube video of a happy family singing "congratulations" around a cake after the debut win! Cool stuff. … Anyway, this one dawdled through an opening quarter of 24.69 in the overture, before coming from out of the pack to win by less than a length after going seven wide ( with a 51.96 closing 4 1/2 furlongs ). Let's hope for another video today! #2 NEW YORK HERO ( "To a New Yorker like you, a hero is some type of weird sandwich." ) hasn't faced the starter since February, but has yet to miss a tri & won by a pole here to get the diploma. #3 PROLETARIAT closes out the triple.

 

 Race 8

1.Tapitation

2.Blacktype ( Fr )

3.Night Prowler

#6 TAPITATION has done his best work over this oval ( 4:2-0-1 ), and from a tiny sampling, 17% shotcaller is 2 for 4 with runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 75 days or lower ( $11 & $18 ) & Franco finished second aboard this one in their lone pairing. #5 BLACKTYPE (FR) earned some of that when winning the Grade 2 Knickerbocker back in October, and owns a win & a third from as many outings over this course. C-Squared also has a baby 2 fer 4 stat in play here, as he's just that wit 3rd off the L/O BEL routers on the sod ( $10 & $7 ). #3 NIGHT PROWLER ( 4:1-1-2 here ) has some back class 7 barn is 11-29 ( 38% ) with those fitting this criteria at 10-1 or lower ( 145-290 days ).  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-3-4-8-5

 

 Race 9

1.Blinded Vision

2.Flipped

3.Rogue Patriot

#6 BLINDED VISION possesses some nice zip, finds himself at his lowest level to date, and was a lively runner up here last September. Know him early but have the Pepto ready late. After a bunch of money burning performances, #3 FLIPPED put it all together when procuring the sheepskin 18 days back, and although he faces winners for the first time, there ain't no world beaters in here. #2 ROGUE PATRIOT has mad the lower rungs of the exotics in 7 of 8 at the trip, and that's reason enough to incorporate underneath.  NOTE: AS OF 1:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont          ( Current )  74-415   ( $646.40 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 145-415  ( 34.9% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )       Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8497 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3127-8591( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9065  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3290-9179( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017