KevinCoxItem


So happy to be out at Indiana Grand today, where I'll be doing on site/on air analysis throughout the evening. Be sure to come say hi !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Stakes - 7/7 - Indiana Grand Quarter Horse Action

 

Race 1

1. Pritty

2.Afraid of Nothing

3.Chicazum

#10 PRITTY had a bit of an awkward onset when breaking from the three hole first time out, but recovered nicely to win going away in 13.49. Chestnut filly draws the outside today, which should aid in a more alert onset, and keep in mind that the debut score was into a severe 24 MPH headwind. #1 AFRAID OF NOTHING is another who got the job done at first asking ( albeit from a more advantageous slot ), and although the adjusted final time doesn't come close to the above, you can never discount rapid improvement with these babies. #7 CHICAZUM completes the troika of undefeated runners we'll be tabbing in tonight's opener, as January bred was purdy game in lasting by a half at nearly 16-1. Jockey/Trainer combo positively on fire at the stand. 

 

      Race 2

1.Worth Doing Right

2.Packin Secrets

3.Bits Leaving You

Spent a good deal of time on this race, but you know, anything worth doing is WORTH DOING RIGHT, and we like the chances of the #1. April Foal gives up a bit of maturity to a few others in here, but after breaking second & dropping back to 6th, came along nicely for third. One of only two runner in here cutting back & this one rates a shot if able to carry that initial gate speed a little better second time out. #2 PACKIN SECRETS is a deserving favorite here, as this one exits a sharp maiden breaking effort while posting the fastest time at the dx. for all runners signed on ( & accomplished such into a crisp headwind to boot ). Runner up that day came pack to get his photo taken north of the boarder and this one MUST be left in all your rolling action. #3 BITS LEAVING YOU was a mite green in the opener, but has the hood off this evening and that should settle him down a bit. 

 

     Race 3

1.JLC Secret Flair ( AE )

2.Clever Conversation

3.MPT Visions of mars

There are three decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em !  #12 JLC SECRET FLAIR (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that occur, will be led over by a 10% conditioner who's 3 for 7 when bringing back new stock off breaks of 208-416 days at this level ( < 50-1 ). The winners paid $8, $6 & $5, and gal really ain't facing much. #10 CLEVER CONVERSATION is 3rd off the layoff today & Cunningham is 5-15 with just that type who hit the money last out at this level ( under 50-1 ). #5 MPT VISIONS OF MARS is back in with maidens today after splitting the field in a 90K restricted stakes right here 35 days ago, and the show horse from that day came back to score next time out. These chronic nibblers give me the willies tho, so we'll leave underneath.  NOTE: AS OF 1:42, DUE TO A SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

     Race 4

1.Beach Mercedes

2.Apollitical Regard

3.Jj James

#4 BEACH MERCEDES has won 4 of 5 with the only blemish being an outing where she got smacked around at the onset before being checked late in the game. The "true" final time of most recent ( no wind ) is the fastest that anyone has put up at 350, and the sh0w horse from that night came back to win in 18.01 with an 8MPH headwind. Oh yeah -- 18% conditioner bats 28% with runners of this ilk who won 23-47 days ago. The more we type... #7 APOLLITICAL REGARD was a bit awkward in her first 400 yard try on 6/22, but still came along decently to procure 10% of the purse. Like the above, this one has the best time for the last dist. run, and in this case, it's at today's trip, so that experience with the extra half'a football field could come in handy. Sorrel runner gets off the pine today, and 12% shotcaller clicks at a 22% rate with those fitting this criteria who hit the board in the last month & are 8-1 or beneath. #9 JJ JAMES looks like the kind of horse that has been screaming for 400 yards, and should be rolling late for today's 3rd start off the layoff.

 

     Race 5

1.El Condor Candia

2.Kitty Sixup

3.Jesalilscret

We're swinging away at a big number here with the #4 EL CONDOR CANDIA at 30-1. Gelding has only beaten ten home in six lifetime starts, but we see some positive things in play with this one. Yes, the comebacker left a lot to be desired, but he was in fact smacked around a bit, so maybe we can be somewhat forgiving there. The workout prior to that race was a bullet of 11.38 @ 220 yds. If you were to prorate that to 330 yards, then you end up with a time of 17.07 -- this one went 18.51, 17.85 & 17.86 in his three forays at that dx. last year ( as a two year old ), so there's a chance he matured nicely, no? Okay, that being said, 11% bossman has an excellent trainer stat behind him, as he's a crisp 3 for 6 w/runners at this level off breaks of 45-74 days between the monster odds of 20-1 & 50-1, and just look at these prices: $56, $93 & $45 ( with today's pilot ). And as the late, great, Billy Mays used to say: "But wait---there's more !!" ... Bueno is more than good when re-affixing the eye cups, as he won the only time he attempted such. #10 KITTY SIXUP posted a solid runner up time of 17.80 in last, and the third place horse from that day came back to get the job done next out. Obviously we love the draw, as well as the fact that Thompson ( just 10% on the norm ) is a whopping 12-27 ( 44% ) with those within these parameters at 5-1 or beneath ( < 70 days ) & has a $2.50 ROI in that regards. #5 JESSALILSECRET has yet to miss the tri & is 3rd off the shelf today; tough to dismiss.

 

     Race 6

1.DNA Dalesblackbueaty

2.Rocky's Candy Shop

3.Cartel's Ballerina

#6 DNA DALESBLACKBEAUTY lost by a length against slightly tougher, and gets a more favorable slot assignment today. Not only do her and the #7 ROCKY'S CANDY SHOP both have the best adjusted 350 yard numbers in the lot, but they're both backed by 30% trainer stats with all pertinent factors. Seems like a sensible exacta box. #10 CARTEL'S BALLERINA has a win & a second when breaking from the outermost two slots & has only beaten four home from three starts when starting from posts 1-8. Sometimes not waiting in the gate too long can make all the difference in the world, and we'll chunk this one in at a double digit offering.

 

      Race 7

1.Woop Dee Doo

2.Tommy the Train

3.Tip It Bac

Co featured stakes race right here, and we're gonna give the nod to #4 WOOP DEE DO. Five year old has that nice "declining" record that we love to see ( 19:7-6-4 ), as it shows that this one knows where the line is. Additionally, the 3 for 5 local ledger leaps off the page as dos the 5:1-2-1 mark in second off the break attempts. The adjusted 19.71 time from the recent 400 try ( 8 MPH HW ) ranks right up there with the 19.32 numero that #6 TOMMY THE TRAIN hung up here last year ( NW ). We'll give the former the tip of the cap, as TTT ( despite the unblemished local mark, along with the trainers' 8:5-3-0 record in stakes at < 4-1 ) has appeared to hit the skids of late. #1 TIP IT BACK has a slightly troubled sojourn in a heat where two runners ( in three different events ) came back to win next time out, and this one has a win & a third in both "3rd off the L/O" tries.

 

      Race 8

1.Flight to La Jolla

2.Bs Special

3.Cappy

Big race of the day on tap here, and while the favorite is a most deserving one, we feel that the disparity in the parimutal offering between he, and our top choice -- #8 FLIGHT TO LA JOLLA -- is too stark to ignore. Frazier charge has won 2 of 3, with the lone blemish being an affair where he got smushed at the onset. The winning times between him & #9 BS SPECIAL were only 4/100th's of a second, with the latter having received Lasix for the first time that day, and sometimes there can be a regression after a positive equipment/medication change. Furthermore ( and close the door ! ), aforementioned conditioner is a groovy 15:9-2-3-1 with ungraded stakes runners who won their last & are 16-1 or less today ( $4.45 return on investment ). Either way, this seems like a solid 1-2 punch. #10 CAPPY ( second half of the uncoupled entry with the above ) exits a weak trial, but had a touch of difficulty that night, and is 1 fer 3 in 2nd off the shelf go-rounds. Goes inside to outside, and with the speedy fave directly to her inside, will have no excuses in regards to the trip.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )       Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8497 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3127-8591( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9065  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3290-9179( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout

  CoxLA2017