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Action on Sunday was ( rightfully ) cancelled. Let's see how today pans out, weather wise. 

 

Have a happy -- and SAFE -- Independence Day, everyone !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 7/4 - Happy Independence Day !!

 

 Race 1

1.Britta's Bay

2.Bonita Bay

3.Virginia Eloise

We begin the week with three solid DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em !! #2 BRITTA'S BAY was a mite green in the career starter, so Ward did the smart thing & gave this one some time off to sort things out. The bullet breeze REALLY pops off the page, as it was a full 1.03 seconds faster than the next quickest move, and keep in mind that this is in fact a two year old filly. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the damn door ! ), WW is 3 for 7 with second time local dirt starters < 14-1, with prices of $4. $15 & $3. #4 BONITA BAY was purchased at auction for nearly three times the stud fee, owns a nice 385 Tomlinson figure for the distance, and 17% Lynch is 3-8 with Belmont firsters on the dirt underneath 16-1 ( $31, $20 & $12 ). #1 VIRGINIA ELOISE is a January bred facing younger foes, is decently bred for this trip, and Pletcher owns a 6-14 mark with runners fitting ALL this exact criteria ( 6-1 or < & Johnny V. in the saddle ). 

 

      Race 2

1.Fair Regis

2.Special Relativity

3.She's Delightful

#7 FAIR REGIS has hit the board in six straight, owns a 3 for 6 record at the trip, and won the only time when breaking from the outside. Sensible selection. #5 SPECIAL RELATIVITY steps up after a sharp win down in Kentucky, and was snagged that day by an outfit who's proficient with new acquisitions. Young lady scored in her only outing at this distance. #2 SHE'S DELIGHTFUL flopped in the turf comebacker, but went back to back in two dirt tries this past winter, and makes sense if able to return to those efforts.  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Hangman

2.Westerland ( GB )

3.Raging Bull

Stakes race named after the champion Manila, and we've enclosed the stretch run from the thrilling 1986 Breeders' Cup Turf right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD4ZimawYqg  #6 HANGMAN found the blinker addition to his liking when procuring the diploma 20 days ago, and the pedigree tells us that today's initial stretchout if quite feasible. While a bounce is always possible when there's a solid try with an equipment change, we like that this one sheds some lb.'s off a score. Slight edge. #5 WESTERLAND (GB) makes his first start today for a barn that's 3 fer 9 with such runners coming from overseas in turf routes ( 172-346 days ) while getting juice. The winners came back $7, $12 & $7, and with Frankel on the topside, here's another who should appreciate 2X. #2 RAGING BULL (FR) has knocked 'em out in both starts to date and makes all kinds of sense.  OFF TURF: 1-6-4-2-5

 

      Race 4

1.Barefoot Angel

2.The I Man

3.Merger of Banks

We're seeing #6 BAREFOOT ANGEL ( best last race #, which lays over anything that anyone in the race has ever run ) as a single here, but will incorporate the #4 THE I MAN as a saver, given the decent try in the penultimate outing. #7 MERGER OF BANKS has some zip and may last for a share in an otherwise forgettable affair. 

 

      Race 5

1.B Three

2.Hardly Mate

3.Peaches and Spice

#1 B THREE is a nibbler by nature, but finished second behind a next out winner seven weeks ago, and from a tiny sampling, 9% clan is 2 for 5 with turf stayers in the 7-1 day range at 40-1 or below ( $25 & $79 ). #6 HARDLY MATE finds herself at her lowest level to date, and exits a race where four returnees have gone 4:2-1-0 in their subsequent outings ( from two different heats ) with an average Beyer improvement of 3.8 points. Maker is on the mark with locally based mid level turf routing stock off breaks of 17-33 days ( $8, $7, $14 & $6 ). #3 PEACHES AND SPICE was a well clear runner up in an off the turf event a week & a half ago and finished third in a nearly identical affair back in mid May.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-5-7

 

Race 6

1.Markitoff

2.Focus Group

3.Mills

#2 MARKITOFF is a steady if not spectacular sort who finished just a length behind a next out winner in last ( over this oval, as well ). 20% shotcaller is 5 fer 10 with those going long on the lawn right here ( at this level ) that were ITM 16-52 days back ( < 10-1 ). The return on investment for that sampling is $4.97, and colt looks like a majah playah. #1 FOCUS GROUP has been beset by some layoff lines, but is 2 for 3 off the shelf ( with both wins coming beneath Jose ), and should be rolling late. #6 MILLS was terribly overmatched in the Brooklyn, but is 1 for 2 when going brown to green & may perk up a bit.  OFF TURF: 7-3-1-4-5

 

Race 7 

1.Riff Raff

2.Runaway Lute

3.Benevolence

#3 RIFF RAFF bested more than half the field when facing this caliber on June 10th, and should move up in today's second off the shelf try. Toscano ( frigid, even during this heat wave ) is 3 for 9 with optional dirt dashers off this kind of layoff scenario at 12-1 or under, with the winners coming back a robust $17, $10 & $21. #6 RUNAWAY LUTE comes in today off a solid showing two dozen days ago, and can improve off that effort with a cleaner sojourn. #5 BENEVOLENCE was very giving in the most recent, as he gave up the brief lead before beating one home. Gelding has closed out the exacta in half of is Elmont outings, and we'll toss in because of that. 

 

 Race 8

1.Data Dependent

2.Night Time Lady

3.Beckoning ( Ire )

#3 DATA DEPENDENT is 3:1-1-1 locally, and Chad Brown owns a 9:4-2-2 ledger with 3rd off the break runners of this ilk that crashed the party last time out & are 9-1 or under today ( pos. ROI ). There's a sub category of 1-1 with those on the stretchout, and we'll give this one the meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeekest of nods in a wide open deal. #7 NIGHT TIME LADY ( second half of the uncoupled entry with the above ) won her only start here, but there's a long layoff in the mix, so take a gander pre race. #7 BECKONING (IRE) improved from the first American start to the second & is 2nd off the break this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 1-8-3-11-6

 

 Race 9

1.Starship Rockette

2.Seattle Frost

3.Galway Girl

#9 STARSHIP ROCKETTE improved by about 25% the only time she went from brown to green, and from an itty bitty sampling, fellow Brooklynite Zito is 2 for 2 w/maiden claiming turfers being wheeled back in less than 12 days at 20-1 or beneath ( $16 & $5 ). We had the #10 SEATTLE FROST on top at 70-1 in the most recent, and barely had a heart attack late in the game, but she ended up a solid 3rd nonetheless. Nordic Toscano ( 12% on the norm ) is 1 fer 7 with mdn. clm. turfers off L/O's of 41 days or less, with payoffs of $7 & $15. #3 GALWAY GIRL switches to a starving pilot, and sometimes that's what you want on a big time longshot ( at least for a share, ya know? ).  OFF TURF: 11-12-14(MTO)-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.



Belmont          ( Current )  73-406   ( $642.10 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 143-406  ( 35.2% ) 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-40     ( $43.20 )       Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-332   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 109-332  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8497 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3127-8591( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9065  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3290-9179( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017